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 USA Stock Discussion v8, Brexit: What happens now?

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danmooncake
post Aug 3 2023, 10:51 PM

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Well, there times when interest rate are so low..(for extended period of time) there are really no good places to park your money except for equities. Therefore, funds keep piling in and retail investors also get sucked in. There's always risks involved whether it is quantitative easing time or tightening times.

Now, we all know US Fed wants to tame inflation (for months they been saying this), so it is tightening times. Also, the yield curve been inverted for months (signs of pending recession) but market is still oblivious to high price of equities. Now, tech been riding on this wave (so called AI boom) and what's not, that's what been lifting everything up. Also, US consumption haven't subsided yet because the employment numbers are still very good.

I think now we can see that the smart money will likely take some money out of equities and park in safer place like fixed deposits/CDs/treasuries bonds.
danmooncake
post Aug 5 2023, 07:37 AM

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QUOTE(Davidtcf @ Aug 4 2023, 10:54 PM)
Wah suddenly market so green again after Amazon’s earnings.
*
Well, unfortunately, the other tech: AAPL earnings are disappointing.. the sales are indeed slowing.

Also, initially, the market liked the smaller job numbers for July but eventually turned negative towards the end.
So, the percentage of unemployment did tick lower by 0.1% in July (3.5% vs 3.6% prior) and the job growth is slowing down.

I think the market doesn't know what to do but we get more sellers towards the end. Likely because it's the weekend and traders want move more of their positions to cash.

So far, the trend still up and bears won this week but still got a lot of work to do to scare bulls away.
Next week is another story. biggrin.gif

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Aug 5 2023, 07:38 AM
danmooncake
post Aug 8 2023, 11:41 PM

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Nasdaq (QQQ) is already at 50ma.. anyone wants to step in to tease the bears? biggrin.gif


danmooncake
post Aug 8 2023, 11:57 PM

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Damn.. the banks are getting whacked. They smell something fishy from the vault.

danmooncake
post Aug 12 2023, 03:47 AM

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QUOTE(ozak @ Aug 11 2023, 11:34 PM)
Macam shopping time.
*
Can start early but need to be careful....tipping toes only.

Got sharks lurking sweat.gif
danmooncake
post Aug 15 2023, 04:04 AM

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Everyone all aboard this choo-choo train for the ride? tongue.gif
danmooncake
post Aug 16 2023, 04:46 AM

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Feels like a trap... the bears and bulls are making a Yo-Yo ride for us again. puke.gif
danmooncake
post Aug 18 2023, 11:58 AM

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QUOTE(ChAOoz @ Aug 18 2023, 08:16 AM)
The stealth bear sneaking up on the market.

This week has consistently show higher sell volume approaching the close of the market, almost any gains for the day are being reverse.

Investors are not super confident of the economy although data shows otherwise
*
Yup, all 3 major indexes now crossed below that 50ma line. Bears are out to play again.
danmooncake
post Aug 18 2023, 08:23 PM

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QUOTE(thkent91 @ Aug 18 2023, 02:03 PM)
From this recent MY states election. I predict that this current government can last max until 2034 only. Time to move asset exposed to overseas slowly
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If that the case...the Ringgit will likely get pummeled again. Back to 1 USD to RM 5? brows.gif
danmooncake
post Aug 25 2023, 10:02 AM

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QUOTE(premier239 @ Aug 22 2023, 02:40 PM)
just curious

do u guys buy some short-term bond etf using the idle money thats sitting to be deployed to buy stocks

if yes, which etf u all buy?

the dividends from etf is also subjected to 30% tax right?

the yield seems very attractive now, if 5.3% gross yield, minus 30% tax still got around 3.7%
*
I like QQQ, DIA and SPY (options play).
Sometimes TQQQ or SQQQ only if I have extra play money and very sure of the market direction.

Next 12-15 mths.. I've exchanged some 40% of those holdings to brokerage CDs.. yielding 5~5.5%.
I'm good with 5.x% 'coz I smell something is brewing. The majors indexes already reached more than 10% YTD.

Only divi ETFs I have are JEPI, SCHD and QYLD.. I don't pay 30% withholding tax 'coz I have US Roth IRA acct.
danmooncake
post Aug 25 2023, 10:04 AM

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QUOTE(ozak @ Aug 25 2023, 09:26 AM)
Last call, last call.
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Damn... all the crooked banks are pumping.. be careful. they're reeling them in for the slaughter. sweat.gif
danmooncake
post Aug 25 2023, 10:46 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Aug 25 2023, 05:04 PM)
Great photo there, bro.... that's Powell when he was young,.... thumbsup.gif  thumbsup.gif

Pre-Powell speech at Jackson Hole now,... the USD keeps strengthening vs all other currencies. I wondered what will happen when Powell starts speaking,... USD weakens badly ????

SGD is also approaching all time high again vs our 'mighty' MYR. USD gaining strongly vs the CAD.
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Powell just said they're NOT done raising rates yet (aka still very hawkish), still want to target 2% inflation.

Their preferred inflation rate is actually "Core" not the Headlines. this is going to be tough because US labor market is still tight although some softening has appear but consumer spending still quite strong.

I think we'll be in at this level for the next 12-18 months, probably 2~3 more 25bps hike.. we'll gonna see 6%-6.25% Fed fund rate for sure if that happens.

Regarding currency... USD rises against CAD but the mighty Mexico "Pesos" is very strong!

On Ringgit vs SGD (or rest of the world).. wtf is wrong with Ringgit... even new govt also no confidence? hmm.gif

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Aug 25 2023, 10:46 PM
danmooncake
post Aug 30 2023, 10:04 AM

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The news must be so bad... then it is good.
All bears turn into super Bull again... biggrin.gif
danmooncake
post Aug 30 2023, 11:40 AM

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QUOTE(ozak @ Aug 30 2023, 10:09 AM)
Sept history usually is a bearish month. Will it happen this yrs?
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Maybe so... some also said this year is A.I. driven rally.

All AI related stocks are up up up, feels like another one of those dot com bubble like two decades ago. Any company that says they're working on AI, their stocks will skyrocket up.

I think they're setting another trap.. tongue.gif

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Aug 30 2023, 11:41 AM
danmooncake
post Sep 2 2023, 05:34 AM

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QUOTE(TOS @ Sep 1 2023, 03:11 PM)
WSJ MARKETS

Rates Are Up. We’re Just Starting to Feel the Heat.
Homeowners. Car buyers. Landlords. Big businesses. Here’s who stands to lose—and in some surprising cases, win—as interest rates stay high in the years ahead.

https://www.wsj.com/personal-finance/intere...share_permalink

--------------------

WSJ FINANCE

The Generational Paradigm Shift Taking Over Markets
For most of the 20th century, stocks and bond yields moved in opposite directions. They’re doing it again after a two-decade break.

https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/the-g...share_permalink

-------------------

WSJ PRO PE INDUSTRY NEWS

Hectic Private-Equity Recruitment Process Leaves Firms Looking for Alternatives
July talent-grab leaves some firms frustrated with process for hiring entry-level workers

https://www.wsj.com/articles/hectic-private...share_permalink

---------------------

WSJ FINANCE: BANKING

Who Wins When a Bank Fails? Wine Guy Frank Martell
His company scooped up wine the government seized when it took over Silicon Valley Bank and First Republic

https://www.wsj.com/finance/banking/who-win...share_permalink

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Thanks for the links!

US Mortgage Rates (for buying house) now has reached very close to 8% for a 30 year loan.

Imagine if Malaysia home buyers facing 8% interest rates from local banks... sweat.gif

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Sep 2 2023, 05:35 AM
danmooncake
post Sep 14 2023, 10:40 AM

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QUOTE(john123x @ Sep 13 2023, 08:59 PM)
but Core Inflation Rate YoY dropped from 4.7% to 4.3%

i guess we need opinion of sifu here...
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IMO, the numbers are actually bad.. BUT... the majority of market participants think this is ok.. hence they have not turn into bears yet.

No matter, I think I better get some PUT protection in place..or sell some covered calls. sweat.gif

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Sep 14 2023, 10:40 AM
danmooncake
post Sep 21 2023, 06:41 AM

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QUOTE(xander2k8 @ Sep 20 2023, 04:46 PM)
Because they worried CS management
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We also don't know how well CS will be.. eventhough ThinkorSwim won't change.

But, historically.. things will look messy especially data from old broker.. like stmts, transactions, etc..

CS also been losing a lot of money, hopefully they won't go bankrupt eventho our funds are supposedly protected by SIPC and some by FDIC (on the regular banking side) sweat.gif
danmooncake
post Sep 22 2023, 04:35 AM

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Holy Molly... Wall Street bleeding...
Whatever happens to it's all priced in for Interest Rates no change? hmm.gif

danmooncake
post Sep 23 2023, 09:26 AM

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Overall this week, Bears won and Bulls licking their chops..soon to be steak for Bears if this continue next week.


We're almost back to 3 months low. All 3 major indexes got some work to fight back the weekly uptrend, otherwise well see the 200 dma. sweat.gif


danmooncake
post Oct 4 2023, 12:59 AM

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Here we go again... good news is bad and bad is good for the market.
We're stuck in this range... doh.gif
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