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 USA Stock Discussion v8, Brexit: What happens now?

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Boon3
post Jun 26 2022, 09:07 AM

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QUOTE(RayleighH @ Jun 25 2022, 06:58 PM)
Sigh, looks like it's my fate to be ignored. 😓
*
Walauehhh..... Friday nights and Saturdays.... sometimes, some people do go out and get laid, no? smile.gif

This is stock forum, what? There is no 38D Cups to be won from discussion, is there? Many a times, posts doesn't need any answering. Sometimes, it gets to the point of what else is there to be answered? And then there are......

Using your data...

With DCA and without? What's the big glaring difference? With DCA, the simplified return is 187%. Without DCA, the return is a whopping 1050%!!!!

What does again says??? When you DCA on an uptrend, where's the upside? What's the positive advantage of adding and adding to the stock? You raised your average cost and the returns get significantly reduced. Is this positive move to employ such a strategy? Was it worth to DCA for a much lesser return?

This is stocks. Certain stocks, fundamental changes more quickly. Look at them Chinese stocks. All it took is an idiot to embark on a suicide MAGA (which coincidently is still wrecking have on the global economy. Or should I stressed out GLOBALISED economy). When MAGA happened, that was the start of the war. The trade war. There is no escape. Sooner rather than later them Chinese stocks felt the brunt of MAGA. The shift and the changes in subscription for Netflix. Look at the impact. Who could imagined that such a massively big cap American stock could plunge so bad? At peak Netflix was what? Close to 310 billion stock? Now? Around 80 billion stock. Did Netflix as a company suddenly just go bad? Or was it a shift in business economics? ( and yeah.... who to say, Netflix doesn't find a fix to their current bad situation?)

Or Tesla. Tesla just got a lucky. Those true stock investors would have never laid a finger on it. That company. The cash burn rate. The Cash calls. That fact that the company was on the brink of bankruptcy. To continue betting before TSLA made its bull run was really reckless. That's my clear opinion on it. Yeah, the stock is a big winner. LOL! Yeah... but that changes nothing for me. Just calling it as it is. Of course, some idiots will try to spin it around and call it sour grapes. Whatever. Immunity is strong.

Which is why don't do DCA on stocks!

Up buy, down buy, sideways buy. Doesn't it sound like insanity? it does. The stock matters. The fundamentals matters.


All this... that's my 28 sen opinion.


Feel free to disagree.... but yea... this is way too tedious for me... hence if you do not see a reply, you don't.




Ramjade
post Jun 26 2022, 09:28 AM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Jun 26 2022, 09:07 AM)
Walauehhh..... Friday nights and Saturdays.... sometimes, some people do go out and get laid, no?  smile.gif

This is stock forum, what? There is no 38D Cups to be won from discussion, is there? Many a times, posts doesn't need any answering. Sometimes, it gets to the point of what else is there to be answered? And then there are......

Using your data...

With DCA and without? What's the big glaring difference? With DCA, the simplified return is 187%. Without DCA, the return is a whopping 1050%!!!!

What does again says??? When you DCA on an uptrend, where's the upside? What's the positive advantage of adding and adding to the stock? You raised your average cost and the returns get significantly reduced. Is this positive move to employ such a strategy? Was it worth to DCA for a much lesser return?

This is stocks. Certain stocks, fundamental changes more quickly. Look at them Chinese stocks. All it took is an idiot to embark on a suicide MAGA (which coincidently is still wrecking have on the global economy. Or should I stressed out GLOBALISED economy). When MAGA happened, that was the start of the war. The trade war. There is no escape. Sooner rather than later them Chinese stocks felt the brunt of MAGA. The shift and the changes in subscription for Netflix. Look at the impact. Who could imagined that such a massively big cap American stock could plunge so bad? At peak Netflix was what? Close to 310 billion stock? Now? Around 80 billion stock. Did Netflix as a company suddenly just go bad? Or was it a shift in business economics? ( and yeah.... who to say, Netflix doesn't find a fix to their current bad situation?)

Or Tesla. Tesla just got a lucky. Those true stock investors would have never laid a finger on it. That company. The cash burn rate. The  Cash calls. That fact that the company was on the brink of bankruptcy.  To continue betting before TSLA made its bull run was really reckless. That's my clear opinion on it. Yeah, the stock is a big winner. LOL! Yeah... but that changes nothing for me. Just calling it as it is. Of course, some idiots will try to spin it around and call it sour grapes. Whatever. Immunity is strong.

Which is why don't do DCA on stocks!

Up buy, down buy, sideways buy. Doesn't it sound like insanity? it does. The stock matters.  The fundamentals matters.
All this... that's my 28 sen opinion.
Feel free to disagree.... but yea... this is way too tedious for me... hence if you do not see a reply, you don't.
*
What you say apply on certain stock because fundamentals change. Look at Nvidia. Microsoft. Even if you average up, for say 5 years, your return would be awesome.

Davidtcf
post Jun 26 2022, 11:01 AM

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QUOTE(RayleighH @ Jun 25 2022, 06:58 PM)
Sigh, looks like it's my fate to be ignored. 😓
*
If you do your own research, will know what is good and what should be avoided. Don’t need others to justify for you.

Keep DCA on good stocks or ETFs, have enough time to see growth and you’ll be fine.
RayleighH
post Jun 26 2022, 11:41 AM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Jun 26 2022, 09:07 AM)
Walauehhh..... Friday nights and Saturdays.... sometimes, some people do go out and get laid, no?  smile.gif

This is stock forum, what? There is no 38D Cups to be won from discussion, is there? Many a times, posts doesn't need any answering. Sometimes, it gets to the point of what else is there to be answered? And then there are......

Using your data...

With DCA and without? What's the big glaring difference? With DCA, the simplified return is 187%. Without DCA, the return is a whopping 1050%!!!!

What does again says??? When you DCA on an uptrend, where's the upside? What's the positive advantage of adding and adding to the stock? You raised your average cost and the returns get significantly reduced. Is this positive move to employ such a strategy? Was it worth to DCA for a much lesser return?

This is stocks. Certain stocks, fundamental changes more quickly. Look at them Chinese stocks. All it took is an idiot to embark on a suicide MAGA (which coincidently is still wrecking have on the global economy. Or should I stressed out GLOBALISED economy). When MAGA happened, that was the start of the war. The trade war. There is no escape. Sooner rather than later them Chinese stocks felt the brunt of MAGA. The shift and the changes in subscription for Netflix. Look at the impact. Who could imagined that such a massively big cap American stock could plunge so bad? At peak Netflix was what? Close to 310 billion stock? Now? Around 80 billion stock. Did Netflix as a company suddenly just go bad? Or was it a shift in business economics? ( and yeah.... who to say, Netflix doesn't find a fix to their current bad situation?)

Or Tesla. Tesla just got a lucky. Those true stock investors would have never laid a finger on it. That company. The cash burn rate. The  Cash calls. That fact that the company was on the brink of bankruptcy.  To continue betting before TSLA made its bull run was really reckless. That's my clear opinion on it. Yeah, the stock is a big winner. LOL! Yeah... but that changes nothing for me. Just calling it as it is. Of course, some idiots will try to spin it around and call it sour grapes. Whatever. Immunity is strong.

Which is why don't do DCA on stocks!

Up buy, down buy, sideways buy. Doesn't it sound like insanity? it does. The stock matters.  The fundamentals matters.
All this... that's my 28 sen opinion.
Feel free to disagree.... but yea... this is way too tedious for me... hence if you do not see a reply, you don't.
*
Walaoweh, you posted a barrage of comments in a short span of a couple of days and then now claim that it is tedious to reply to a request that you've put out. You requested people to show you that DCA is a viable strategy (you did not ask for the best). But when I show you the numbers, now you claim DCA tak boleh pakai at all, despite the numbers showing rather decent returns.

Ini kalau main video game, sure is a OCD min-maxer.

No one thought this was a competition. I, at least, thought that we are all here to share and exchange knowledge, especially when you're so gung-ho with all your responses. But maybe you had a different goal. 🤷🏻

I appreciate that you've fleshed out your thoughts on your latest response. Since you're finding it tedious to provide responses, let's just agree to disagree. I also don't want to take up anymore is your time since you're too busy going out and getting laid.

Good day to you then.

This post has been edited by RayleighH: Jun 26 2022, 11:45 AM
dwRK
post Jun 26 2022, 12:05 PM

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QUOTE(RayleighH @ Jun 24 2022, 06:49 PM)
» Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... «

*
user posted image

my 2 penny from charting perspective...left to right

1st entry ok lah if have to get started... but ta not so good
2nd entry not good because chart showing more weakness...
3rd entry is perfection imho... monthly long term chart shows this is good technical entry... if patience didn't fomo/dca earlier, all in here
4th entry to average up is ok but very risky as chart is topping
5th entry is good...
6th entry should not enter... already lots of -ve news...
7th exit is late... but ok lah do what we must...

dwRK
post Jun 26 2022, 12:11 PM

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QUOTE(Ramjade @ Jun 25 2022, 03:41 PM)
I DCA in and already up 10%. If I haven't DCA in near the bottom (can never catch the bottom), I wouldn't even be up 10%.

Just waiting for it to fall again so can use my cash to buy more.
*
must be your google... smile.gif

i must say you probably the happiest guy in this bear market wishing for more crash whilst increasing drawdown/paperloss... hahaha thumbsup.gif

RayleighH
post Jun 26 2022, 12:22 PM

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QUOTE(dwRK @ Jun 26 2022, 12:05 PM)
user posted image

my 2 penny from charting perspective...left to right

1st entry ok lah if have to get started... but ta not so good
2nd entry not good because chart showing more weakness...
3rd entry is perfection imho... monthly long term chart shows this is good technical entry... if patience didn't fomo/dca earlier, all in here
4th entry to average up is ok but very risky as chart is topping
5th entry is good...
6th entry should not enter... already lots of -ve news...
7th exit is late... but ok lah do what we must...
*
What is your TA criteria in determining a good/bad entry point? I see you have some moving average lines in the chart. So I'm assuming you're making your TA decision based on moving average and those green/red pattern? My TA is still weak, so you can laugh if you find my usage of certain terms weird.

This post has been edited by RayleighH: Jun 26 2022, 12:26 PM
ChAOoz
post Jun 26 2022, 12:23 PM

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QUOTE(dwRK @ Jun 26 2022, 12:11 PM)
must be your google... smile.gif

i must say you probably the happiest guy in this bear market wishing for more crash whilst increasing drawdown/paperloss... hahaha  :thumbsup:
*
If your goal is to own a target of a business by x years. Then any drawdown is good i guess as long as long term business thesis stay intact

Cause the goal post is i want to own x amount of shares by x year time frame, instead of i want x amount of value in my portfolio. This is ownership mentality, probably more for investors with long term horizon.

While for trading the mindset to tackle is different. Like this last round i accumulated google but i traded trip. One i keep, another i buy options, both are long positions. If trip tank in the near 6 months i would probably not so happy, whereas for google im ok and might add a little bit more till it hit my target of shares i want to own for the next 10 years.
Boon3
post Jun 26 2022, 12:33 PM

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QUOTE(RayleighH @ Jun 26 2022, 11:41 AM)
But when I show you the numbers, now you claim DCA tak boleh pakai at all, despite the numbers showing rather decent returns.

*
How did my initial posting which showed the same thing different than yours?

QUOTE(Boon3 @ Jun 24 2022, 09:56 AM)
Ok this one last one...

** if anyone insist on buying constant $ each year - please enter data into excel sheet *

TSLA - buying 1,000 shares at lowest price each year

2017 buys 1,000 shares at 61.31
2018 buys 1,000 shares at 52.65
2019 buys 1,000 shares at 44.37
2020 buys 1,000 shares at 83.51
2021 buys 1,000 shares at 580.88
2022 buys 1,000 shares at 650.28

my data was from the chart posted on msn.money.

https://www.msn.com/en-my/money/stockdetail...tp&duration=Max

if any mistakes, please feel free to correct.

user posted image

Total shares bought at 6,000
Total investment 1473
Total average per share = 245.50

As per post #10611
The initial buy in was 61.31.
Due to the CBM, average buying price became became 245.50

And again, as mentioned, the result will show a win but at what cost?
Is it justifiable to use CBM and see the cost go from 61.31 to 245.50?

*
That was my posting on TSLA.

Without DCA, the cost would have been 61.31.
With DCA, the average cost would be exploded to 245.50.

Analyze what this is saying. I thought it was obvious but never mind, if took the effort and you count out the simplified return won't it say the same thing? rolleyes.gif
Whereby using DCA. the average cost increases so much? Yup, which is why the question, Where is the upside? What's the advantage of using DCA as a buying strategy.

And am I changing anything? "With DCA and without? What's the big glaring difference? With DCA, the simplified return is 187%. Without DCA, the return is a whopping 1050%!!!!"




Boon3
post Jun 26 2022, 12:45 PM

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QUOTE(ChAOoz @ Jun 26 2022, 12:23 PM)
If your goal is to own a target of a business by x years. Then any drawdown is good i guess as long as long term business thesis stay intact

Cause the goal post is i want to own x amount of shares by x year time frame, instead of i want x amount of value in my portfolio. This is ownership mentality, probably more for investors with long term horizon.

While for trading the mindset to tackle is different. Like this last round i accumulated google but i traded trip. One i keep, another i buy options, both are long positions. If trip tank in the near 6 months i would probably not so happy, whereas for google im ok and might add a little bit more till it hit my target of shares i want to own for the next 10 years.
*
.... and the risk of that target to own that business by x years is _____________?


business economics could change, no?
owners mindset/attitude could change, yes?

owners mindset. We saw and witnessed it together, didn't we?
Cases where owners were dealt with sudden windfalls.
The case of TG case.... the wanting to be bigger than Mayban, the constant dabbling in the stock markets - clearly those are signs of the owner losing focus.

or let me cheat and pick and choose the Neftflix scenario.
What if by near our 'collection phase', the company's business economics suffers from intense competition and with it, a drastic drop in subscriptions?
It poses such a delima, yes? Stock was on the uptrend during our collection phase then just before we finish, the it starts turning for the worse, and the stock plunges?

If x = 10 years... and since we know our lifespan is limited... this takes out a huge chunk of our investing life.... all wasted on a poor stock selection.


and this is why.... I stick my neck out ... and say such strategy has extreme risk!


dwRK
post Jun 26 2022, 01:31 PM

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QUOTE(RayleighH @ Jun 26 2022, 12:22 PM)
What is your TA criteria in determining a good/bad entry point? I see you have some moving average lines in the chart. So I'm assuming you're making your TA decision based on moving average and those green/red pattern? My TA is still weak, so you can laugh if you find my usage of certain terms weird.
*
it depends on my confidence wrt reading the price actions (green/red) and predicting next movements... if unsure, then i wait for confirmations to see how prices reacts at their support resistance levels...

i use moving averages and a few other indicators to help easily scan and assess... but i usually start with naked charts to reduce bias...then add in the indicators see what else i'm missing...

the 3rd entry is very good because of many factors... the dip preceding bounced a good level support, it bounce fibonacci retracement level, hit swing pattern failure, the bounce retraced back to a nice fibonacci level again, and a few more... this is a very technical entry with lots of good confirmation...

you can trade support and resistance levels, i.e., the tops and bottoms...these will give you maximum profits but also higher risks of getting things wrong, or trade the trend which is lower risk and less profit... but with trends need to make sure you get in and out early wrt the timeframe you are trading... usual risk is too late to the party and staying when its over...

for long term stock investing... daily and weekly charts with some basic ta indicators are good enough imho... the main problems with investors as i've mentioned before, is the reluctance to sell, inability to hedge and affinity to dca too early when the market starts tanking... also fomo/buys in too early... your example 1st and 2nd entry... buy and hold 2 years without "making money" is not good use of funds... yes i know, i get it... buy tsla because you wanna own a piece of it... wink.gif

anyways, dca in itself is not a bad thing... just be cognizant when to use it lor... anyways...

RayleighH
post Jun 26 2022, 01:37 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Jun 26 2022, 12:33 PM)
How did my initial posting which showed the same thing different than yours?
That was my posting on TSLA.

Without DCA, the cost would have been 61.31.
With DCA, the average cost would be exploded to 245.50.

Analyze what this is saying. I thought it was obvious but never mind, if took the effort and you count out the simplified return won't it say the same thing?  rolleyes.gif
Whereby using DCA. the average cost increases so much? Yup, which is why the question, Where is the upside? What's the advantage of using DCA as a buying strategy.

And am I changing anything?  "With DCA and without? What's the big glaring difference? With DCA, the simplified return is 187%. Without DCA, the return is a whopping 1050%!!!!"
*
The difference is in your postings, you only focused on the percentage return rather than the total return. Your strategy shows that your cumulative return is 1050% but in total it is only 643.90. If one had DCA'ed according to the calculation, they may have a mere cumulative return of 187%, but the total profit is 2758. 2758 > 644. God knows where the remaining 1,411 is parked under. Maybe in similar performing counters, maybe in losing counters, maybe in FD or maybe in EPF.

If one has been successful in replicating such returns (1050% or similar) in all of their other counters rclxms.gif notworthy.gif
If one has been successful in replicating such returns in half of their counters but the other half of their counters posted negative returns instead, then maybe the overall numbers are not as impressive.
If one managed to be successful in this one (or a few) particular counter but had parked the remaining 1,411 in FD/EPF, then it seems that DCA'ing into this one particular stock is a more viable alternative when the annualized TWR is 69% (compared to FD 2-4% and EPF 5-6%).

You may argue that TSLA is a unicorn/speculative stock and should not be touched with a 20-ft pole. But as others have pointed out, there are other fundamentally sound companies like Apple, Nvidia, Microsoft, etc. where DCA'ing into them will still produce decent gains. Again, keyword: decent, viable. No one here is arguing that DCA is the god method to produce the best outcome or even to guarantee a profit.

So if you asked me if DCA is viable, yes. Is purely DCA is the best approach, perhaps not. Is blindly DCA'ing bad, yes. Is DCA just all downsides and no upsides, no. Do I want to get tied down in keeping up-to-date with the fundamentals of a hundred different companies, no. I also would like to go out and get laid, okay. devil.gif

Ok lah, I think this particular discussion is like beating a dead horse. For me, I'll just end it here. Moral of the story, be careful when using DCA approach. Peace out.

P.S. Eh, you don't go out and get laid on a Sunday ka? So many long replies in a short span. tongue.gif Jangan terasa ye, just cucuking. cheers.gif

QUOTE(dwRK @ Jun 26 2022, 01:31 PM)
it depends on my confidence wrt reading the price actions (green/red) and predicting next movements... if unsure, then i wait for confirmations to see how prices reacts at their support resistance levels...

i use moving averages and a few other indicators to help easily scan and assess... but i usually start with naked charts to reduce bias...then add in the indicators see what else i'm missing...

the 3rd entry is very good because of many factors... the dip preceding bounced a good level support, it bounce fibonacci retracement level, hit swing pattern failure, the bounce retraced back to a nice fibonacci level again, and a few more... this is a very technical entry with lots of good confirmation...

you can trade support and resistance levels, i.e., the tops and bottoms...these will give you maximum profits but also higher risks of getting things wrong, or trade the trend which is lower risk and less profit... but with trends need to make sure you get in and out early wrt the timeframe you are trading... usual risk is too late to the party and staying when its over...
*
I see. So your approach is akin to having a checklist of several items to indicate a good/bad entry point. Mainly:
1. Price actions
2. Support/resistance levels
3. Moving average
4. Fibonacci retracement levels
5. Reversal patterns.

Maybe I can read up on these and see if I can make heads and tails out of them. thumbsup.gif

QUOTE(dwRK @ Jun 26 2022, 01:31 PM)
for long term stock investing... daily and weekly charts with some basic ta indicators are good enough imho... the main problems with investors as i've mentioned before, is the reluctance to sell, inability to hedge and affinity to dca too early when the market starts tanking... also fomo/buys in too early... your example 1st and 2nd entry... buy and hold 2 years without "making money" is not good use of funds... yes i know, i get it... buy tsla because you wanna own a piece of it... wink.gif

anyways, dca in itself is not a bad thing... just be cognizant when to use it lor... anyways...
*
I resisted this time round to buy in too early, after the most recent Fed interest hike. Hopefully the market don't prove me wrong. sweat.gif

This post has been edited by RayleighH: Jun 26 2022, 02:03 PM
dwRK
post Jun 26 2022, 01:55 PM

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QUOTE(ChAOoz @ Jun 26 2022, 12:23 PM)
If your goal is to own a target of a business by x years. Then any drawdown is good i guess as long as long term business thesis stay intact

Cause the goal post is i want to own x amount of shares by x year time frame, instead of i want x amount of value in my portfolio. This is ownership mentality, probably more for investors with long term horizon.

While for trading the mindset to tackle is different. Like this last round i accumulated google but i traded trip. One i keep, another i buy options, both are long positions. If trip tank in the near 6 months i would probably not so happy, whereas for google im ok and might add a little bit more till it hit my target of shares i want to own for the next 10 years.
*
drawdown means bought too early... if waited and only dca near the bottom, would have minimize any big drawdown and with the limited funds own a bigger chunk of the business and/or hit accumulation target faster, no?... biggrin.gif objective is the same... just that execution is different...

but if market don't come down i lose out big time...how?... yes i know the dilemma wink.gif

anyways trader or investor... end objective is same... money... just different methods of accumulation and different exposure to risks


dwRK
post Jun 26 2022, 02:30 PM

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QUOTE(RayleighH @ Jun 26 2022, 01:37 PM)
I see. So your approach is akin to having a checklist of several items to indicate a good/bad entry point. Mainly:
1. Price actions
2. Support/resistance levels
3. Moving average
4. Fibonacci retracement levels
5. Reversal patterns.

Maybe I can read up on these and see if I can make heads and tails out of them.  thumbsup.gif
I resisted this time round to buy in too early, after the most recent Fed interest hike. Hopefully the market don't prove me wrong.  sweat.gif
*
ya... always have a checklist and your own entry and exit rules... and before you enter you should have an exit idea...or how much/when to dca before you call it quit...

but if 99% confidence...
» Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... «


This post has been edited by dwRK: Jun 26 2022, 02:41 PM
RayleighH
post Jun 26 2022, 02:50 PM

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QUOTE(dwRK @ Jun 26 2022, 02:30 PM)
but if 99% confidence...

QUOTE
just park a few buy limit orders dca at the bottom there... wait for price to come to you... wink.gif
user posted image
*
Which company/index does this chart belongs to? Doesn't seem to be S&P500 nor Nasdaq.
dwRK
post Jun 26 2022, 03:02 PM

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[quote=RayleighH,Jun 26 2022, 02:50 PM]
*

[/quote]

Which company/index does this chart belongs to? Doesn't seem to be S&P500 nor Nasdaq.
*

[/quote]
btc cool2.gif
RayleighH
post Jun 26 2022, 03:12 PM

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[quote=dwRK,Jun 26 2022, 03:02 PM]
Which company/index does this chart belongs to? Doesn't seem to be S&P500 nor Nasdaq.
*

[/quote]
btc cool2.gif
*

[/quote]

shakehead.gif Itu saya tak boleh tido.
Ramjade
post Jun 26 2022, 04:07 PM

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QUOTE(dwRK @ Jun 26 2022, 12:11 PM)
must be your google... smile.gif

i must say you probably the happiest guy in this bear market wishing for more crash whilst increasing drawdown/paperloss... hahaha  :thumbsup:
*
I am always excited by red/bear market. The redder it is and the longer it last the better. It allows me to scoop up things on discount and build up my position i.e don't overpay for things. I for one never shun a near/red market. I welcome it as it's shopping time. biggrin.gif

Same with shopping..I generally shop when there's like a 10-20% discount unless it's something I really need then I will just buy it upfront regards of price.

This post has been edited by Ramjade: Jun 26 2022, 04:08 PM
Boon3
post Jun 26 2022, 04:09 PM

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QUOTE(dwRK @ Jun 26 2022, 02:30 PM)
ya... always have a checklist and your own entry and exit rules... and before you enter you should have an exit idea...or how much/when to dca before you call it quit...

but if 99% confidence...
» Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... «

*
Like this also call DCA? laugh.gif

You pull whose leg?

The other day I lazy use 1,000 shares per year got expert fast fast point out not DCA.

laugh.gif
dwRK
post Jun 26 2022, 04:35 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Jun 26 2022, 04:09 PM)
Like this also call DCA? laugh.gif

You pull whose leg?

The other day I lazy use 1,000 shares per year got expert fast fast point out not DCA.

laugh.gif
*
biggrin.gif

the action is called laddering in... the final price arrived is through dca...

is technically correct... hahaha


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