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Boon3
post Jun 23 2022, 07:15 PM

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QUOTE(Davidtcf @ Jun 23 2022, 05:28 PM)
Ok I re-read and understand fully what you mean now.

For first example the person still gained. You only show 5 years horizon. What if the person hold for 15 years? could you say the same they were bad investments if every year got grow (in 15 years time)? Also most people earn mthly salary and not some rich fag, so of course can't lump sum buy so much at one go. Need to spread it out.

If near to the end of 15 years and I'm at the age of 50 for example. Would it still be wise for me to keep buy so many of Nvidia's stock? Or I would follow expert's recommendation to have at least 50% in safer investments such as FD, bonds, etc? That time for me I will reduce my exposure to growth stocks, likely won't be buying as much.

Also if super rich the person can't foresee future how well a stock will do.. so definitely they will diversify out to reduce risk. They will likely buy 1k stocks here and there to profit after some time. A stock worth 50 could end up becoming 0 or worth 800 after 5 years. Just see Tesla, no one expected them to be this successful in the beginning? Many even fear to buy Tesla stocks when they were worth 50-100 USD. Would you dare to buy so much Tesla during those days? Or rather wait they proven themselves first?  wink.gif

2nd example show Netflix, for me I wouldn't buy them the first place as I read that they have very high debts and low profit margin. It is basically betting on a company to start making profit after tough beginnings. Hence not surprise when they get hit hard once investors realize their subscriber base have fallen together with reduced profits for the quarter.
If one were to invest in such a riskier stock, they could set stop loss at certain price point. That way they would suffer less losses when prices starting bottoming. Some would even use covered options as a safeguard.
*
WOW! thumbup.gif thumbup.gif

Thanks for layan me. hehe...

Yes, in short fundamentals is so important (and clearly Netflix is a good teaching example!!) when you buy a stock.

CBM is just a method of how one does the buying. One which I feel has so much weakness in it. Think about it. If you stretch this method out on a stock on a longer time frame, what's the biggest risk? The biggest risk of course is fundamentals. Fundamentals do change over time. Sometimes the company can be better but there aren't many of them around. There are many that go bust in a time frame, such as 15 years. Think about it... 15 years collecting the stock... and when you finish collecting, the business economics of that stock collapses! How then? You might end up collecting a 'bad' stock for 15 years!

Isn't it better in the simple NVIDIA case, the buyer does a proper due diligence? If 55+ is a damn good investment, ie as good as your own reasoning, why buy bit by bit?

no?


this is all I am saying. stock fundamentals is more important than the buying method.


icon_rolleyes.gif
Davidtcf
post Jun 23 2022, 07:30 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Jun 23 2022, 07:15 PM)
WOW!  thumbup.gif  thumbup.gif

Thanks for layan me. hehe...

Yes, in short fundamentals is so important (and clearly Netflix is a good teaching example!!) when you buy a stock.

CBM is just a method of how one does the buying. One which I feel has so much weakness in it. Think about it. If you stretch this method out on a stock on a longer time frame, what's the biggest risk? The biggest risk of course is fundamentals. Fundamentals do change over time. Sometimes the company can be better but there aren't many of them around. There are many that go bust in a time frame, such as 15 years. Think about it... 15 years collecting the stock... and when you finish collecting, the business economics of that stock collapses! How then? You might end up collecting a 'bad' stock for 15 years!

Isn't it better in the simple NVIDIA case, the buyer does a proper due diligence? If 55+ is a damn good investment, ie as good as your own reasoning, why buy bit by bit?

no?
this is all I am saying. stock fundamentals is more important than the buying method.


icon_rolleyes.gif
*
Also remember it is impossible to time the market. People the most can just speculate whether market will go up or down depending on economic, inflation, political situation etc. When covid first hit everyone thought gonna be doomsday and started panic selling. The moment Fed announce stimulus and cutting of interest rates immediately every stock pump to the moon.

Then now correction is happening.. we already witness stocks fall so much in their price. Some people even paper loss up to 6 figures. Some lost 20% of their portfolio (esp if started last year). But we still DCA coz know good times will come back one day. Past shows that after one time of bear market/recession, there will be 4-5x period of growth after that.

If choose safe route, you will lose also if just put money in bank as the value of your money will keep become smaller. Earning 3% also not enough to fight inflation these days.

Also history has shown the best times to invest is during a bear market. If choose to avoid entirely and wait things start to show sign of improvement, then you’ll miss out on the best days to enter during that period.

You won’t be the only one wait to jump ship into full throttle investing when recovery start to show. Other hedge fund, sea of investors, millionaires, billionaires will be throwing their money into the stock market at the same time. Some more we talking about the US, hottest stock market is found here. That time if you slow in taking out your money how? Or if you run out of money since they are put elsewhere? Only to see the prices leap from one high to another high. That time will start asking why didn’t enter the market when it’s at all time low.

This post has been edited by Davidtcf: Jun 23 2022, 07:32 PM
RayleighH
post Jun 23 2022, 07:35 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Jun 23 2022, 07:15 PM)
WOW!  thumbup.gif  thumbup.gif

Thanks for layan me. hehe...

Yes, in short fundamentals is so important (and clearly Netflix is a good teaching example!!) when you buy a stock.

CBM is just a method of how one does the buying. One which I feel has so much weakness in it. Think about it. If you stretch this method out on a stock on a longer time frame, what's the biggest risk? The biggest risk of course is fundamentals. Fundamentals do change over time. Sometimes the company can be better but there aren't many of them around. There are many that go bust in a time frame, such as 15 years. Think about it... 15 years collecting the stock... and when you finish collecting, the business economics of that stock collapses! How then? You might end up collecting a 'bad' stock for 15 years!

Isn't it better in the simple NVIDIA case, the buyer does a proper due diligence? If 55+ is a damn good investment, ie as good as your own reasoning, why buy bit by bit?

no?
this is all I am saying. stock fundamentals is more important than the buying method.


icon_rolleyes.gif
*
While I agree that stock fundamental is very important in deciding which company's stock to buy, I believe that most of the people here who mentions DCA is not advocating to buy bit by bit. It's just that that is all the available money that they have at that time (i.e. 55+) to buy the stock. That is why when they have fresh funds available, they DCA into the same company stock again, providing that the company still have strong fundamentals.

On the other hand, some who mention DCA here were also referring to index funds. You may sustain losses in the short term from a broad base USA index funds from entering at the peak but you will have very low probability to go bust (unlike China's ETF).

Can I continue picking your mind? What are your criteria in defining whether a company has strong fundamentals or not?

This post has been edited by RayleighH: Jun 23 2022, 07:39 PM
dwRK
post Jun 23 2022, 07:38 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Jun 23 2022, 07:01 PM)
puke.gif

laugh.gif
To be more precise, was thought by this one Auntie b4... she told me that buying correctly most of the problem and the most important one is 'should I buy more if the stock falls'.
She reasoned, if the share falls after you buy, it only means one thing Bo, it means I screwed up either with my stock selection or my buying price.

That was something I learned. Something which I felt had so much truth in it.....
*
lol... it means your timing sucks... scenario failed...

even pros make mistake with entry... solution is stoploss and cutloss... dca is time bomb waiting on margin call and liquidation

but good entry is a different conversion let's not digress... biggrin.gif

Boon3
post Jun 23 2022, 07:43 PM

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QUOTE(RayleighH @ Jun 23 2022, 07:04 PM)
Could you then elaborate in detail on your strategy of defining a correct stock selection and correct buying price, just like how you detailed out your explanation on why DCA (or Average down) is not right. I would like to learn too if you do not mind sharing your substantial knowledge/experience.
*
It so much depends on who you are, really.

I wouldn't know if you are a better speculator, trader or investor.

But assuming you are an investor, reading the company numbers matters a lot. The balance sheet, the cash flow. Understanding the business economics. Is the company making more money. Profits is always important and profits without cash flow is BS. All pretty much basic investing.

And if course, understanding the risk.

And of course, do own dillegence. If I had told you average down is the way to go, look over actual data. Test it out. Does the number makes sense or am I simply talking crap....

etc etc...

GL
Boon3
post Jun 23 2022, 07:45 PM

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QUOTE(dwRK @ Jun 23 2022, 07:38 PM)
lol... it means your timing sucks... scenario failed...

even pros make mistake with entry... solution is stoploss and cutloss... dca is time bomb waiting on margin call and liquidation

but good entry is a different conversion let's not digress... biggrin.gif
*
tongue.gif

Cut loss is very important but then... remember the law of Aunties... if you keep cutting all the time, what are you gonna cut next?

laugh.gif


Boon3
post Jun 23 2022, 07:47 PM

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QUOTE(RayleighH @ Jun 23 2022, 07:35 PM)
While I agree that stock fundamental is very important in deciding which company's stock to buy, I believe that most of the people here who mentions DCA is not advocating to buy bit by bit. It's just that that is all the available money that they have at that time (i.e. 55+) to buy the stock. That is why when they have fresh funds available, they DCA into the same company stock again, providing that the company still have strong fundamentals.

On the other hand, some who mention DCA here were also referring to index funds. You may sustain losses in the short term from a broad base USA index funds from entering at the peak but you will have very low probability to go bust (unlike China's ETF).

Can I continue picking your mind? What are your criteria in defining whether a company has strong fundamentals or not?
*
Yup. I did say... If CBM was done on the index, I would have stfu. laugh.gif
dwRK
post Jun 23 2022, 07:48 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Jun 23 2022, 07:47 PM)
Yup. I did say... If CBM was done on the index, I would have stfu. laugh.gif
*
still sucks... down 20% for now ... laugh.gif

This post has been edited by dwRK: Jun 23 2022, 07:48 PM
Boon3
post Jun 23 2022, 07:50 PM

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QUOTE(Davidtcf @ Jun 23 2022, 07:30 PM)
Also remember it is impossible to time the market. People the most can just speculate whether market will go up or down depending on economic, inflation, political situation etc. When covid first hit everyone thought gonna be doomsday and started panic selling. The moment Fed announce stimulus and cutting of interest rates immediately every stock pump to the moon.

Then now correction is happening.. we already witness stocks fall so much in their price. Some people even paper loss up to 6 figures. Some lost 20% of their portfolio (esp if started last year). But we still DCA coz know good times will come back one day. Past shows that after one time of bear market/recession, there will be 4-5x period of growth after that.

If choose safe route, you will lose also if just put money in bank as the value of your money will keep become smaller. Earning 3% also not enough to fight inflation these days.

Also history has shown the best times to invest is during a bear market. If choose to avoid entirely and wait things start to show sign of improvement, then you’ll miss out on the best days to enter during that period.

You won’t be the only one wait to jump ship into full throttle investing when recovery start to show. Other hedge fund, sea of investors, millionaires, billionaires will be throwing their money into the stock market at the same time. Some more we talking about the US, hottest stock market is found here. That time if you slow in taking out your money how? Or if you run out of money since they are put elsewhere? Only to see the prices leap from one high to another high. That time will start asking why didn’t enter the market when it’s at all time low.
*
And this is what makes the stock market bloody interesting... so stimulating laugh.gif


ps... We have the I, R and the C....which is all caused by the idiot who said.... MAGA.



dwRK
post Jun 23 2022, 07:51 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Jun 23 2022, 07:45 PM)
tongue.gif

Cut loss is very important but then... remember the law of Aunties... if you keep cutting all the time, what are you gonna cut next?

laugh.gif
*
your auntie not my auntie... ;

my auntie says... lose small small... win big big... hahaha
sp3d2
post Jun 23 2022, 07:51 PM

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In my personal experience, any stocks that I purchased that fall around 20 to 30%, but then the fundamental remains strong, it will rise again to break even after 6 months.

This is very limited to my personal experience as I Only buy those stock with the best fundamental Only. So when It goes down, I don't get nervous or anxious.

This post has been edited by sp3d2: Jun 23 2022, 07:52 PM
RayleighH
post Jun 23 2022, 07:52 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Jun 23 2022, 07:43 PM)
It so much depends on who you are, really.

I wouldn't know if you are a better speculator, trader or investor.

But assuming you are an investor, reading the company numbers matters a lot. The balance sheet, the cash flow. Understanding the business economics. Is the company making more money. Profits is always important and profits without cash flow is BS. All pretty much basic investing.

And if course, understanding the risk.

And of course, do own dillegence. If I had told you average down is the way to go, look over actual data. Test it out. Does the number makes sense or am I simply talking crap....

etc etc...

GL
*
Personally, I am an investor. One aspect that has been on my mind for quite a while is that, how does one be able to gain an insight/understand the nature of the business of the company that one is looking at? Or simply, where does one go to gain these knowledge? How do you get familiarized in the operation nature of different companies in different industries, especially if one is not from that industry? Would you mind sharing how is it for you?
dwRK
post Jun 23 2022, 07:58 PM

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QUOTE(Davidtcf @ Jun 23 2022, 07:30 PM)
Also remember it is impossible to time the market.
*
Yes you can to some extent... wink.gif

» Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... «

Boon3
post Jun 23 2022, 08:02 PM

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QUOTE(dwRK @ Jun 23 2022, 07:51 PM)
your auntie not my auntie... ;

my auntie says... lose small small... win big big... hahaha
*
I sure hope that it is my auntie and not yours tongue.gif
Boon3
post Jun 23 2022, 08:10 PM

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QUOTE(sp3d2 @ Jun 23 2022, 07:51 PM)
In my personal experience, any stocks that I purchased that fall around 20 to 30%, but then the fundamental remains strong, it will rise again to break even after 6 months.

This is very limited to my personal experience as I Only buy those stock with the best fundamental Only. So when It goes down, I don't get nervous or anxious.
*
Fundamental strong as so many interpretations.

Especially if the company economics is cyclical.

Take Harta. Local glove stock. So said that it's the best managed. Cash rich etc etc.. but business economics has now changed for the worst, the stock will be hit just as bad as others.
sp3d2
post Jun 23 2022, 08:14 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Jun 23 2022, 08:10 PM)
Fundamental strong as so many interpretations.

Especially if the company economics is cyclical.

Take Harta. Local glove stock. So said that it's the best managed. Cash rich etc etc.. but business economics has now changed for the worst, the stock will be hit just as bad as others.
*
Forgot to put eps also in my statement above.
Boon3
post Jun 23 2022, 08:18 PM

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QUOTE(RayleighH @ Jun 23 2022, 07:52 PM)
Personally, I am an investor. One aspect that has been on my mind for quite a while is that, how does one be able to gain an insight/understand the nature of the business of the company that one is looking at? Or simply, where does one go to gain these knowledge? How do you get familiarized in the operation nature of different companies in different industries, especially if one is not from that industry? Would you mind sharing how is it for you?
*
I play only local stocks ya. So for me, Bursa Malaysia is the main goto website. And I read a lot. And I am a trader. Knowing your best skill set is so very important.

And it does help for you to try to look at stocks from a business perspective. Incorporate lots of common sense reasoning.

For example.. there are new snippets that DaGe and its chips news snippets...

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/202...making-industry

So from a business perspective.. sooner rather later.. when China enters a business, be damn sure that a price war will happen.

Hence, one cannot be too gung ho on this business.

Ya.. something like this..

TOS
post Jun 23 2022, 08:27 PM

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WSJ MARKETS: HEARD ON THE STREET

Apple Isn’t Priced for a Recession
The battered stock has still outperformed many tech peers even as consumer spending looks poised to decline

https://www.wsj.com/articles/apple-isnt-pri...share_permalink

-------------------------------

Merck Acquisition Would Test Emboldened Regulators
Possible tie-up with Seagen makes strategic sense but will be scrutinized by antitrust officials seeking to toughen approach to pharma mergers

https://www.wsj.com/articles/merck-acquisit...share_permalink

------------------------------

DocuSign Isn’t Ready to Pull From the Shredder
Management shake-up shows one-time pandemic darling’s business hasn’t yet stabilized

https://www.wsj.com/articles/docusign-isnt-...share_permalink

-------------------------------

‘Buy the Dip’ Faith Has a Last Bastion: Individual Investors
They remain big net buyers of stocks as professional money managers sell, but the scale of losses such investors are racking up could eventually lead them to capitulate

https://www.wsj.com/articles/buy-the-dip-fa...share_permalink

--------------------------------

Oil Refiners an Easy, but Odd, Target for Pump-Price Surge
Refiners are being blamed for surging fuel prices. While they are logging bumper profits, that tends to be the exception, not the rule.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/oil-refiners-a...share_permalink


Davidtcf
post Jun 24 2022, 12:21 AM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Jun 23 2022, 08:10 PM)
Fundamental strong as so many interpretations.

Especially if the company economics is cyclical.

Take Harta. Local glove stock. So said that it's the best managed. Cash rich etc etc.. but business economics has now changed for the worst, the stock will be hit just as bad as others.
*
you don’t trust DCA don’t need to preach to others to follow your style also.

Is like if one or Christian force u to become Christian.. but u strong Buddhist, u like or not?

We can debate which and what is each about but no forcing please. In investing hard to say which is right or wrong since both ways also got strategy to make money.

Here is US stock section.. very different compare to Bursa. Wanna discuss Bursa can discuss elsewhere more suitable. I personally only invest in banks and reits in Bursa as an alternative for my emergency funds. That is all what Bursa means to me. Dislike how our currency keeps getting weaker under stupid gov, hence can’t convince me to pump more money there. Also lack of foreign investors, much manipulation, and so much institutionalise control of the stock market (by EPF, Lembaga Tabung etc buy sell in bulk).

This post has been edited by Davidtcf: Jun 24 2022, 12:22 AM
yehlai
post Jun 24 2022, 01:06 AM

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