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 USA Stock Discussion v8, Brexit: What happens now?

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james.6831
post Jun 17 2022, 06:21 PM

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so snp500 down to 2400? ouh lord...
RayleighH
post Jun 17 2022, 06:22 PM

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QUOTE(james.6831 @ Jun 17 2022, 06:21 PM)
so snp500 down to 2400? ouh lord...
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Just my wild speculation.
TOS
post Jun 17 2022, 07:13 PM

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QUOTE(dwRK @ Jun 17 2022, 03:32 PM)
can be worse since feds pump market so much for so long...

but still no trigger for massive dump yet... market structure still ok...
*
When the structures fail you let us know lah tongue.gif
RayleighH
post Jun 17 2022, 07:21 PM

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QUOTE(dwRK @ Jun 17 2022, 03:32 PM)
can be worse since feds pump market so much for so long...

but still no trigger for massive dump yet... market structure still ok...
*
Ini market structure?

user posted image
RayleighH
post Jun 17 2022, 09:08 PM

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This article mentions possibility of either 3200 or 2500 as the worst case scenario for S&P500.

» Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... «


This post has been edited by RayleighH: Jun 17 2022, 09:10 PM
dwRK
post Jun 17 2022, 10:21 PM

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QUOTE(RayleighH @ Jun 17 2022, 07:21 PM)
Ini market structure?

user posted image
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lol...

market structure in trading... smile.gif

Lon3Rang3r00
post Jun 17 2022, 10:44 PM

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Uhhh that small window appear where my Calls and Put Option (Same Strike Price same expiry date) Premium shifted. I set a buy order to close both options, my CC got closed with more than half of the premium pocketed in. As for puts, since it's already in the money... unless something happen tonight which bring it out of the money then there's a chance it will close. Nonetheless getting CSP assigned mean average acquisition on the particular stock will lower. no harm overall
danmooncake
post Jun 18 2022, 01:04 AM

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At year 2020 pandemic lows, SP500 is around 2200 low. The breakout highs is 3200.
That's the numbers everyone is watching.

Right now, it's 3600, it's just another 11% drop from here. This may be possible with 2 to 3 more rates hikes away. Meanwhile, we may see another wave up before the next wave down for the upcoming CPI read again in 30 days and another 50bps to 75bps hike in 45 days (around last week of July).

Peak summer travel/holiday will be around round July 4 to July 15th. July data won't be available until August FOMC meeting.

Somehow I think the max lows of SP500 for this year.. maybe around 3000 - that's should be it.

To get to 2200, it will be 38% drop. If this happens, I think there must be something seriously wrong with US economy
other than just inflation. Recession will start, consumer and business spending will stop immediately.
Fed will ease once more.. and go on with the QE process all over again.

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Jun 18 2022, 01:05 AM
icemanfx
post Jun 18 2022, 02:40 AM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Jun 18 2022, 01:04 AM)
To get to 2200, it will be 38% drop.  If this happens, I think there must be something seriously wrong with US economy
other than just inflation. Recession will start, consumer and business spending will stop immediately.
Fed will ease once more.. and go on with the QE process all over again.
*
For us fed to consider qe, inflation rate need to be below target range else qe will fuel inflation rate like currently.

Like breakout, sp500 could drop to new low from market sentiment alone.

This post has been edited by icemanfx: Jun 18 2022, 02:44 AM
danmooncake
post Jun 18 2022, 03:17 AM

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Got an alert that EWM (iShares for Malaysia) is at 52 weeks low: 21.87. Maybe going to test pandemic low again at 20.22.
Took a quick peek at its mother index: ^KLSE.. low and behold, it's at 52 weeks low again at 1456 close.

Darn.. feel tempted to get some but on second thoughts looks like could be dead money for the next 12 months
other than the juicy dividends (5.7%). hmm.gif

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Jun 18 2022, 03:18 AM
Cubalagi
post Jun 18 2022, 09:55 AM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Jun 18 2022, 03:17 AM)
Got an alert that EWM (iShares for Malaysia) is at 52 weeks low: 21.87. Maybe going to test pandemic low again at 20.22.
Took a quick peek at its mother index: ^KLSE.. low and behold, it's at 52 weeks low again at 1456 close.

Darn.. feel tempted to get some but on second thoughts looks like could be dead money for the next 12 months
other than the juicy dividends (5.7%).  hmm.gif
*
Why u want t o buy EWM? U will get witholding tax on dividends.

If u want Malaysia, buy Bursa stocks directly



dwRK
post Jun 18 2022, 11:10 AM

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QUOTE(Cubalagi @ Jun 18 2022, 09:55 AM)
Why u want t o buy EWM? U will get witholding tax on dividends.

If u want Malaysia, buy Bursa stocks directly
*
maybe he in USA... missed kampung stocks... smile.gif

dwRK
post Jun 18 2022, 11:13 AM

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QUOTE(Lon3Rang3r00 @ Jun 17 2022, 10:44 PM)
Uhhh that small window appear where my Calls and Put Option (Same Strike Price same expiry date) Premium shifted. I set a buy order to close both options, my CC got closed with more than half of the premium pocketed in. As for puts, since it's already in the money... unless something happen tonight which bring it out of the money then there's a chance it will close. Nonetheless getting CSP assigned mean average acquisition on the particular stock will lower. no harm overall
*
dude.... I dunno what are you doing... hahaha

dwRK
post Jun 18 2022, 11:15 AM

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QUOTE(Medufsaid @ Jun 17 2022, 04:28 PM)
anyone care to share an elliott wave analysis of the index?
*
later I draw you one... you draw me one we compare?

Lon3Rang3r00
post Jun 18 2022, 11:50 AM

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QUOTE(dwRK @ Jun 18 2022, 11:13 AM)
dude.... I dunno what are you doing... hahaha
*
Got drunk and didn't realize I got two options with same strike price on same expiry date. When I realized it, it is already too late since it's either at the money or in the money with no time value. But I managed to close both and still get profit from it. Praise the Lord!
Medufsaid
post Jun 18 2022, 11:58 AM

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QUOTE(dwRK @ Jun 18 2022, 11:13 AM)
dude.... I dunno what are you doing... hahaha
*
by selling and buying back his stocks (erm more accurately called away + assigned back) at the same price, he hopes to profit from premiums and still have the stocks.

well this is before he said it was an unintended trade tongue.gif

This post has been edited by Medufsaid: Jun 18 2022, 02:10 PM
dwRK
post Jun 18 2022, 03:16 PM

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QUOTE(Lon3Rang3r00 @ Jun 18 2022, 11:50 AM)
Got drunk and didn't realize I got two options with same strike price on same expiry date. When I realized it, it is already too late since it's either at the money or in the money with no time value. But I managed to close both and still get profit from it. Praise the Lord!
*
ignoring the stock/cc... the short put short call same strike combo is called a straddle with max profit at the strike price laugh.gif

anyways for the put buyer... it depends how much itm as he has to breakeven to make it profitable... so you're still profitable above the breakeven price... sweat.gif

QUOTE(Medufsaid @ Jun 18 2022, 11:58 AM)
by selling and buying back his stocks (erm more accurately called away + assigned back) at the same price, he hopes to profit from premiums and still have the stocks.

well this is before he said it was an unintended trade tongue.gif
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if call is itm worth calling away... then the put is otm and practically impossible for assignment right?

Medufsaid
post Jun 18 2022, 03:39 PM

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have you considered at-the-money / near-the-money where both puts/calls of the same strike price are worth exercising during intraday trading itself?

(of course, exception for european-style where you can only exercise at expiry so there's only 1 final price)

This post has been edited by Medufsaid: Jun 18 2022, 03:45 PM
dwRK
post Jun 18 2022, 04:07 PM

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QUOTE(Medufsaid @ Jun 18 2022, 03:39 PM)
have you considered at-the-money / near-the-money where both puts/calls of the same strike price are worth exercising during intraday trading itself?

(of course, exception for european-style where you can only exercise at expiry so there's only 1 final price)
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sure... someone might just do it even if not really worth doing... thats why i write 'practically' impossible... and not 100% impossible... but majority of ppl playing options don't wanna get assign anyways...
Medufsaid
post Jun 18 2022, 04:18 PM

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QUOTE(Medufsaid @ Jun 18 2022, 03:39 PM)
exercising during intraday trading itself?
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Last trading day.
morning 10am, share is $4.90, $5 puts worth exercising
afternoon 3:30pm, share $5.10. calls worth exercising

This post has been edited by Medufsaid: Jun 18 2022, 04:40 PM

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