What just happened? How come dow drop so much all of a sudden?

Kind of following the pattern of the last debate, went up first day and down second.

Also RMB set at weakest in six years.

They're taking money off the table tonight for the general market but heck..
Oil still quite strong despite some pull back. Hasn't reach the last low yet. Need that $50 to break down.

it's a dicey situation now.

it's basically all talk, no action yet.

any cut will be only be agreed on nov 30.

and history says everyone will cheat.

but... the financial markets have bought the talk, so it goes up.

can't fight that.



i think tmrw the paris based iea will release its oct report.

this report usually swing things quite a bit, so we'll see if the tune is "supply glut persist, " well in balance" or "demand will outstrip supply".

and there is api/eia data tmrw too.

will be a hectic day tmrw for oil.

It is this one right ?

IEA releases Oil Market Report for October



This post has been edited by zacknistelrooy: Oct 12 2016, 12:12 AM

Ah yes, already out.

Not much reaction from markets, though.

I read it as demand not strong, supply glut still on but hope pins on opec cut.

So, will opec cut, cut big or cut small....?

Probably small cut, as not many want to lose revenue.

Ugly day for general market but Oil still holding up strong here.

correction or bear?

trump looking worse, guess it's bull camp here.

This post has been edited by yok70: Oct 12 2016, 03:38 AM

Trump is good at playing poker.. so, he may still have a lot of hidden cards (or fire power) within the next 30 days till election. Don't count him out yet.

I actually wish he could win... then, the market will go into shock mode and drop 10%.
Then, we go in and buy buy buy. After that, cooler heads will prevail, he like other presidents before him will succumb
political pressure.. and will revitalize it again with more QEs with the help from the Feds.

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Oct 12 2016, 12:23 PM

guess so, all foxes out there, especially presidents. haha!

Trump may still have a chance as many may lie when they are polled.

The betting odds which is at 83% for a Hillary win may prove otherwise. The betting odds for brexit was a little closer so even if we factor in voters that are secretly going to vote for Trump it still is kind of difficult unless that odds reduces to the 60 % range.

There is even now chatter that Switzerland wants to favor locals and curb free movement.

This post has been edited by zacknistelrooy: Oct 12 2016, 08:15 PM

Reuters

talk is cheap.

now, everyone can say "potong".

really, as a producer, everything to gain, nothing to lose by saying "freeze" or "cut".

Still above $50 so far.. very good. 2 more trading days to go. I think we'll be ok here.

There is no punishment for breaking freezing or cutting oil production, and it is one advantage to increase while others are freezing or cutting production. With shale oil taking full advantage, OPEC production freeze or cut is unlikely to maintain long.

This post has been edited by icemanfx: Oct 13 2016, 03:27 AM

Of course.. it used to be the OPEC cartel has a lot of power in manipulating the prices of oil in the market
but with more and more non-OPEC can also turn up their production, any kind of gaps in supply, it can be easily filled by them. Nowadays, even OPEC members also cheat.. they can simply "yes" to we will halt or limit the production, they'll wait for the market to react with higher prices then in reality, they will put out a few more hundred thousands of barrels/day over the limit into the market. Most likely, no one will notice until it is too late. Suddenly, all the oil tankers are called in again, the oil traders will realize.. opps.. time to sell sell sell.

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Oct 13 2016, 03:53 AM

this market is just too bullish....to be realistic....
....was it preparing for dec rate hike? (aka push up before a sell down...sort of....)

Well, the last FOMC news release seems to indicate that rate hike is off for now. So, less than 60% chance.

This market is also too dependent on the "rate" drug.. just a .25 bps. The world isn't going to end but
heck, the bulls will think as if the market will melt down.

bullish.

deutsche bank, hanjin, samsung and now ericsson... all fell drastically recently but has not dragged anything down with them.

usa side, all seems good!

oil is looking up, as least from fin market point of view.



the only thing falling now is the RM, now 4.21x.