going back to 46.

out of last 10 weekly api-eia sagas, 8 or 9 had been roller coasters, i.e. eia comes out directly opposite to api.

nice tip!

i went dwti earlier at 73.

still holding, waiting for 2.30am.

i just want to see wti close below 46.

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Jul 8 2016, 12:02 AM

no need to wait 2.30am... already 45.88!

45 now looks easy enough...

yep, got my wagyu this time!

wti direction is probably still down but is volatile like mad - chance for trading.

looks ok to me.

i'm also thinking of jumping into uwti just for 1 night.

i'm with u - that's my price!

looking at the storm, if chance to get out at 2.30am, i will.

the fall is too sharp.

haven't seen that in a while.

there should be a reasonable rebound later or tmrw.

not looking good, dow -100.

possible the slide will continue.

gotta watch tmrw very carefully.

and there is rig count tmrw too.

my read is a little different, more like dan's.

slacks in opec have been picked up by others. strikes, fires, rebels have also contributed to erratic price spikes but all that is over. and there is iran pumping away as #2; new fields in khazakhstan and gulf of mexico coming onstream. there is simply no shortage of oil on the planet at this time.

brexit effects so far are knee-jerk. more safe haven bonds going negative yields says it all - there will be a significant slowdown in uk and the eu - less demand for oil. china's stockpile is filled to the brim, can't buy much more.

growth in india and others is far from enough to pick the slack in china. india can't grow faster in energy consumption industries because of serious lack of water in the subcontinent.

45-46 is not the bottom. i see it diving below at least one more time, and will not cross 52 this year.

so, i will not hold much oil/energy stocks/etf's for now. will just trade accordingly. the correlation crude-dow is still significant.



tonight, unless dow slides again, there should be a chance for wti to touch 46 again. just don't wait too long to settle uwti!

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Jul 8 2016, 11:37 AM

jobs report at 8.30pm.

futures after 8.30pm will give indication where market will go later.


Friday's employment report is expected to show a rebound to 175,000 nonfarm payrolls, from May's stunningly weak 38,000, according to Thomson Reuters. The June report is expected to include a reversal of the negative impact of the Verizon strike, which bit into May's number and should add about 35,000 workers to the June report.

aiyah... wb is not a demi-god, he's only human. like us, who hasn't done time travel into the future.

where's the bottom? it's futile to try to speculate.

i gave up looking for tops and bottoms for anything long time ago.

just look for reasonable highs and lows.



tonight.. i look for dow +100, wti 46, that's all.

i have a good feeling that i will get a second wagyu steak later.

U.S. stock index futures extended gains Friday after the June non-farm payrolls report exceeded expectations with a headline figure of 287,000.

"This is really good news. It's not going to change monetary policy in the near term because we're still unraveling the effects of the (EU) referendum," said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at Wunderlich Securities.

goldilocks job report.

dow +14x.

wti... not so good.

waiting for rig count report, i suppose.

jobs report - strong $, crude price drop.

that's what they say now...

financials have a field day today.

tech also good.

shale is coming back.

wti gains today will be limited... 0.5%?



BREAKING: US oil rigs rise by 10 to 351: Baker Hughes

uwti... i just got out at 26.50.. same as buying price. lost brokerage.

it's been tough in the last 24 hours.

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Jul 9 2016, 01:20 AM

will go back in if it pukes and goes to 45.

ya, anti-climax.

i dumped and went to sleep.

wait next week, see what happens...

this kind of "mistake" is in all of us, whatever approach/method applied.

it's simply not possible to buy at low-low and sell high-high.

i bought a few counters 2 days into brexit rout, now holding 4-5% gain.

BUT... that was a huge risk i took when there was so much fear.

brexit could have caused stocks to go down by another 3% or so.

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Jul 9 2016, 11:05 AM