Don’t Panic Yet About the British Military After Brexit
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It’s not every day one of Europe’s largest economies votes to pull itself out of the European Union
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The military implications of Brexit will not set in overnight, and Britain has a backup plan
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For one, NATO is responsible for Europe’s collective defense, not the European Union
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Nor does leaving preclude Britain from participating in the E.U.’s military missions, such as chasing pirates off the Horn of Africa
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But there’s no doubt that Brexit (if it happens) could have major consequences for British foreign and military policy
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a London-based defense and security research organization, described a a possible withdrawal from the European Union as “significant a shift in national strategy as the country’s decision in the late 1960s to withdraw from bases East of Suez.”
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Today, British warplanes and advisers are involved in the war with the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria. The U.K. military is increasingly involved in Africa
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In short, the British military is less focused on Europe, and is more globalist, than it was during the Cold War
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The Brexit vote reflected deep divisions in British politics — between class, age and geography. In Northern Ireland, Catholic Republicans were far more pro-European than Protestant Unionists, and a reduction in cross-border trade and migration “could undermine what is already a fragile political settlement in Belfast,”
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Scotland, which only recently (and narrowly) voted down an independence referendum, supported staying in the European Union by 62 percent. Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon said that “it is … a statement of the obvious that the option of a second [independence] referendum must be on the table, and it is on the table.”
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Britain bases its four Vanguard-class nuclear submarines — armed with nuclear Trident missiles — at HMNB Clyde in Faslane, Scotland. The separatist Scottish National Party, which has a majority in the country’s parliament, opposes basing nuclear weapons in Scotland
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“The big elephant in the room is Trident,” Iain Ballantyne of Warships International Fleet Review told War Is Boring. “If Scotland breaks away, then the Trident boats and SSNs will be kicked out of Scotland.”
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Brexit will have consequences for European arms companies which do business with the United States, too. Namely, a decline in the value of the euro and the pound — in relation to the dollar — will make American products more expensive
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Lockheed Martin, the manufacturer of the F-35, depends on European buyers to stay in the program and keep costs down. The same is true for British military companies which rely on partnerships with European companies. The Eurofighter Typhoon, for instance, is jointly built by BAE Systems in England, Airbus in France and Alenia Aermacchi in Italy
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A Britain ridden with recession and internal turmoil could turn inward — making it harder for NATO to cooperate on deterring Russia. Brexit could also add to NATO’s existing troubles at presenting a common face on policy.
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