nobody really knows where the price wanna go sometimes. (or how high)

those who have deep pockets have different strategies because they have deep pockets.
their position can go negative a few hundred pips for a few weeks is also ok.

this is example of short covering, whatever breakout retest all happens like this



IMHO, the only confirmation is only through ur money management, if your wins can cover many losses, thats when u make money.
indicator follows price, PRICE follow the money, money is not always permanently BULL or BEAR.

if i were the banks, i will let price violate the SR to show breakout, then later whack it down kuat kuat until u all lost.
then on chart, u'll see a fake breakout

Biggest obstacle for a trader is not the market but himself.

You can't do shit on the market, just yourself and the system

What is yourself ?
1. Discipline
2. Pain tolerance
3. Money management
4. Stress management

System
1. Technical base
2. Fundamental
3. Both

Knowledge to turn your psychology of a normal person to become a trader however is not available. Lol

That's out of our range.
Unless u have a few hundred millions or billions

Then there are no automated bots which can work based on technical based unless u can see real exchange data.

All the forex robots are marketing gimmick by brokers to draw in deposits, later when these bots start to make money, they will play slippage, rejected orders and things like that.

I've seen those scalping bots basically work on very bad R:R ratios. And bots are not so smart to factor in volatility as it changes throughout the years.
Let's say now u set ur bots SL to be 30pips. This is based on movement from last month. So this month the 30pips becomes too small, rendering it unprofitable.
So u continue tweak to 40pips, then this time, the take profit couldn't hit that well.
So u continue to tweak-adapt-tweak-adapt cycles.


The only HFT that works is all based on order sizing n speed

Smarter but does it make money ??

I've read about those bots developed by hedge funds, they either work by having these advantages
1. Speed
2. Market order flow
MT4 is just tip of the retail pie only. The real exchange is at EBS Thomson Reuters n the other one.
Data type got special order flow subscription well into 6 figures per month.
That's what advantage big players have over us

Scalping robots don't work first of all.
Volatility is a variable and changes all the time, just like weather.

Btw forex futures represents maybe less than 15% of global volume. Real volumes are not available for retail levels.
Retail level is like traditional fisherman while those hedgefund n banks readings are like fisherman with underwater radar. That's their edge over us.

My programmer friend worked with a seasoned trader, previously keep tweaking it until they gave up.
As volatility changes, u need to tweak it.

Unless yours have wide SL which u see their equity chart climbs up slowly and drops down like a cliff. A few consecutive losses burns the account.

Scalping robot refers to mt4 based. I'm saying that those technical based bots on mt4 doesn't work for long due to changing volatility because most of it rely on technical entries like breakout, moving average cross over.
So they tune the bots to follow certain market conditions for trade but then can't work as well when volatility changes.
Unless the bots are using very wide SL.
Over the years I see those bots making money for a couple of months which later account burnt due to changing market conditions n volatility. That's why broker use bots to lure ppl to use robots because most of the time confirm lose after a while.

The big guys HFT is all based on front running orders. Or practically speed and also order based. (Quant or algo trading the only thing which works if not those big guys won't dump in tune of hundreds of millions)

Regarding futures and spot fx.
For every single tick the value of transaction is different.
Futures are based on contract, every tick represents a fixed contract size.
Real exchange ticks are based on a variable contract size. 1 tick=usd 100mil during active hours. During non active hours maybe 1tick=usd 10mil. Transacted amount is unknown behind every tick. The exchange do sell these data for premium price

MT4 is a time based price platform. Moving average is time based rather than tick/volume based.

This post has been edited by AllnGap: Sep 18 2016, 11:36 AM

there are so many information and misinformation in the market.
it's a long journey to filter out which works and which doesnt.
thats why only small percentage of ppl make it.

are u willing to sacrifice 2-3years constant study, try-fail-sweat-tears ?
same goes to the saying only small percentage of ppl can come out from casino with profits and be consistent with it.

not to discourage you, but it isnt as what brokers' video showing
deposit > use indicator > profit > big car + pretty gf + yacht

if u are willing to pay the price, be resilient then and able to change yourself then u can go ahead

would buy the low area of pound. reversal otw



This post has been edited by AllnGap: Sep 22 2016, 09:48 AM

psychological problem.
thats why only 5% of people made it

can give u very good system but if u cant handle fluctuations, or pain threshold is low, then u will be scared the fuck out of the trade

so to you which has higher probability then ?

every single piece of them combine together makes a perfect picture.
news as well

sometimes central banks speech week cannot be traded because everything will go sideway or go crazy
u apply whatever technical analysis is pointless

alligator is a trend friendly indicator.
when no trend it's not your fwen

The market is an unpredictable place.
If u understand food chain of the market then u know why it's called unpredictable.
Where there is no fixed top or bottom because this is the market after all.

Who has more capital, orders / data information, controls news ultimately is at top of the food chain.

few factors
1. breaking up of eurozone
2. greece issue
3. china stopped supporting euro high price (previously china try to cushion euro due to bond purchase)

something drastic enough to change long term economic outlook is capable to swing prices at monthly chart only

This post has been edited by AllnGap: Oct 1 2016, 03:03 PM

3rd OCT outlook.

please be reminded that JPY & CAD chart is reversed

dafuck got burned a lil'

this monday the range become unstable, gapped but dint retest, then plenty of sells even at monthly low....shit



i think it's intentional because GBP is 'managed' by their central bank to float within 1.5% of the range.

this fat finger order is very huge

This post has been edited by AllnGap: Oct 7 2016, 07:35 AM

hard to say, this is deliberate attempt because it's done before japan session.
extremely thin market, all ppl sleeping.

anyway, BOE allow this to happen wan, pound always fluctuate around 1 to 1.5%, it's managed round the clock.

in order to cause it to drop like that, dunno one shot dump how many billions

This post has been edited by AllnGap: Oct 7 2016, 09:10 AM

u must be trolling

1. because once the secret is out it's no longer a secret.
if u are able to bribe millions of pounds and u know someone inside BOE or someone's wife working for BOE that i believe.
for 999USD very unlikely. If u have the info would u sell online or sell to someone like George Soros ??

2. this is drop is "allowed" by BOE btw, u see even when CHF devaluation 1,500pips annoucement made, GBP did not get affected that much also, and well within the 1% to 1.5% daily fluctuation range.
central banks only allow their currencies to move within certain range, this move is around 4% to 5% in a few ticks

3. i overlay futures data for my side, after it gapped on monday, started to look a bit weird as the buyers disappeared, then on thursday morning this happened

therefore i conclude that something as large as a central banks wants this to happen or coordinated with BOE allowed it to break like that.

thats what i'm trying to tell you.
this move is a very huge dump, very very huge dump. active hours to move 1pips need USD20mil.
this maybe in the tune of 10 billion on the dump side, and 10B on the 1.2 area.
and this was done before japanese market open means it's deliberately done. (everyone sleeping)

usual modus operandi is to break layer by layer using less money

and Central Banks usually have put a lot of stops to "manage" currency to move in the 1~1.5% range.
until now BOE did not order investigation, means they indirectly allow this to happen


again for your 999USD. i believe they wont leak it out for that price. because it's too little and not worth it because it will ruin their plan