jack, just and to confirm, do the trader using martingale method, as the lot size become larger ? Most ppl who always active in the thread know martingale work good for beginning and burn at the end.

if the broker is a high reputation broker, according to a recorded history, some rich investor will invest into the company and rescue the company. if the broker is a low reputation company, this is an unknown story as cannot find the related history record.

reference :
http://www.wsj.com/articles/fxcm-in-talks-...ries-1421431006

Personal viewpoint, it is divided into 2 cases.

Case 1 : reputed with license forex broker. There are always a group of ppl (black swam investor) always wait the forex broker in trouble and then immediately take over the control (stock) and own the company. Like what happened in insurance company AIA and ING.

Similar to casino license, the established forex license is very difficult to obtain. the rescue also reflects the change of management level, which also means the company name and agreement do not change , but staff inside all changed.


Case 2: low reputed broker. if low reputed broker, because of the license too easy to obtain or no license at all, obviously no investor will buy the stock, therefore the money is gone as the company disappear into air .

In your case, maybe u can divide ur investment into many reputed companies to reduce the risk of one company bankrupt since we are free to stick into any forex brokers.

But I much more interested on the strategy can win ten thousand days.

How is the result currently ?

This type account convert ur RM into USD and save as USD. No leverage, but real money conversion. Different from the forex trading case here. At here, we want positive pips, but not money conversion.

wah, 120 lot size.. total sum up more than 600 lots.

Why US Citizens Cannot Open Account With Overseas Brokerages and How To Handle It
http://www.selfgrowth.com/articles/why-us-...ow-to-handle-it


Most likely means that weak or strong oversea regulated broker firm do not dare to touch US citizen as they have strong government to protect them thru regulations (tons of paper work need to do and approved), but not for unregistered (illegal) broker (because no need paper work).

wow.. you dare to do BUY GBPUSD after Brexit result was out.. are you using pending order in earlier time ?
by the way, the broker I use not allow trading for big lot trading that time and all big lot trade was delayed then rejected by server, so I was not able to trade that time.

you working with m_pips2 or you are m_pips2 ?

wah.. any good broker can recommend ?

How much is that ?

Hi all, out of topic awhile, does the US stock trading with leverage also using MT4 like forex ?

How good is ur maths ? Are you good in random process ?

so, u mean every walk/step is an independent movement, that's why u called it random walk instead of process ?

The reason I asked because you said you are very good in Mathematics, hope you can speak your new findings for discussion purpose. It is good that every forum member should give positive contributions, else the forum will not last long because lack of useful information.

In random walk concept, each ticks are assumed to be independent. Because it is independent, future tick does not has any relationship from current and past ticks. This one we all knew that.

The point is : If this is the independent case, Martingale should work well since it is straight forward implementation from Random Walk. But as you said, Martingale is not reliable enough, so I guess your inner mind does not accept the market is not behave like random walk.

In a very native idea, sometimes the market behave like random walk, some time the market not behave like random walk. In other words, sometime it can predict, sometime cannot predict. Random process (bigger case) includes random walk, but random walk not includes random process.

Dependent vs Independent condition
Based on your dialog, I guess you are more interest on Random process, where some series of ticks are dependent until certain time, then the new series of ticks occurs. Therefore, the old series (group) and the new series (group) are independent. This also means the two groups are independent to each but the inner members inside a group are dependent. When member tick are dependent, they behave in the same way, such as keep rising. When dependent members occur, follow trend trader normally get a lot profit because the current tick can be used to predict the next tick. However, if they trade among the groups (which are independent), the current tick cannot be used to predict the next tick, so they lose money easily or no make money in average.

The relationship between the groups can be viewed as Random walk event, but the relationship between inner group members obviously have not been considered in Random walk (in fact, it has already been considered in engineering to send data packet and repair error data packet). The inner members are dependent, can predict. Since the martingale is build based on independent walk. Now, again, the "walk" in Random walk is corresponding to "group", but the inner member is not defined in Random walk . So that martingale trade should be designed based on identifying the independent groups, not based on tick or pips.

Obviously, we all know no one strategy can last forever because strategy has its own weakness. In order to make improvement, it is good to clearly know the weakness and improve the weakness. In this case, the martingale weakness is the inner member, who is closely dependent to each other. The member are dependent because they behave in the same way, such as they all keep rising. However, some ppl get profit in this way because their eye can identify the dependent members. According to Random Walk, the martingale should apply on two independent groups. This means only apply martingale when the dependent member (rising stop) end, not at the middle of dependent member occur (half way of rising).

I know many of the traders has observed this market condition and keep it inside their mind, probably they are lazy to structure it with English sentence.

Kindly do not mislead information to the public. Your example based on the solely view point that the market is independent event case (50 up - 50 down).
Why not you give an example of dependent case (50 percent up 100 pips and 50 percent down 1 pips) . I hope you can write more.

I didn't report you, but you post will be read by many ppl in the forum. Maybe someone reported you.

First, you said you are good in maths, so I assume that you are fully understand the random walk theory in maths. Now, I am not sure what your version random walk, but I refer to random walk that standardized in public domain in
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Random_walk [from wikipedia]
the main point of random walk is the mean or average is always a zero (it always return to zero), and ppl can sum it with the mean/average and plus offset themselves. The predict of the mean or offset is their own secret strategy, in certain case, some ppl define random walk is noise.

In your consecutive losses example, you had assumed that magnitude up/down always nearly same size and thus not suitable in forex martingale design because they did not consider large step size (magnitude). if 50% change has large pips in opposite trade direction, the consecutive losses event turn to be 50%.

Fundamental is another viewpoint that can affect the mean/average value but not random walk. But, here, I am more interest in your consecutive loss case.

Again, if the market is random and un-predictable, it can be any conditions. Due to the reason that it can be any conditions, you cannot deny that this condition occurs, and reluctance to admit. Not because designer lazy/scare to consider this condition, the condition won't occur forever.

By consider the condition that can happen in a rare time (but not always happen)
50 percent down 100 pips and 50 percent up 1 pips .
The consequence is 100-pips-martingale losses with 50 percent chance. The chance is not same as the consecutive example you gave.

Obviously, some trades in the forum suggested previously that we can try to avoid the condition by avoiding trade in news event. I am agree that that is helpful. But what if we are in the middle of trading when big event suddenly happened ?

You argue that this is invalid and thus no need to consider the rare case. In fact, the example can be turned to be a general case , such as

A percent down X pips and B percent up Y pips ,
A, B , X, Y can be replaced by variable and any value and A and B not necessary be the same percent, X and Y are not necessary be the same pips. So the martingale should be designed in term on A,B X and Y .

In market, A,B,X,Y are changing from time to time. Thus, martingale is not necessary be fixed pips or grid martingale.

Not always happen does not mean will not happen.

I though you are senior trader also

Generally, what I had in my mind is : better lose virtual money rather than lose real money, and then learn from the mistake and reduce the number of mistakes. I also started from demo account last time and do error corrections.

Perhaps can read the book (all words and no maths at all) below to see what other traders had experience.

Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets by Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Is that slippage means the order SL or TP is no longer useful, and the broker closed order in another price ?