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 Fundsupermart.com v14, Happy 牛(bull!) Year

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river.sand
post Jul 26 2016, 04:46 PM

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QUOTE(dasecret @ Jul 26 2016, 03:59 PM)
Erm, I know about feeder funds, I have quite a few too.... care to point out which feeder funds outperform its benchmark? Most of the time they track the benchmark or underperform; but Msian investors would have gotten a higher returns on foreign funds due to ringgit weakening.

Like I say, I do have quite a bit of foreign funds as I feel the need to diversify; and I'm willing to pay in the form of lower returns compared to say EI small cap fund.
But I'm also saying ETFs are popular overseas for a reason; mutual funds usually don't outperform the index unlike the case in Malaysia
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Don't just look at fund vs index. Indexes are not created equal.

For example, KLCI is made up of 30 largest counters in Bursa. Large companies usually don't grow fast. Dividends may be good, but these are not taken into account.

So, beating KLCI is easy. Pinky and I did just that.

Similarly, beating DJIA is easy. But outperforming S&P 500 is tougher.
river.sand
post Jul 29 2016, 05:38 PM

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Still remember Genneva?

Only 3% per month return laugh.gif

Before long we will have Ponzi scheme which boasts 100% monthly return whistling.gif
river.sand
post Jul 29 2016, 05:42 PM

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QUOTE(cybermaster98 @ Jul 29 2016, 10:17 AM)
Yeah not sure how many ppl will be willing to have RM100K stuck in a fund for the next 7 yrs with no guarantee of a good return.
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eh... what do you mean by stuck for 7 years?

Maturity at 2023 doesn't mean you can't sell, right? Bonds also have maturity but they can still be traded at secondary market. Of course the market price is likely to be different from the face value.
river.sand
post Jul 31 2016, 09:46 PM

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QUOTE(Storathz @ Jul 31 2016, 09:39 PM)
Anyone knows why I can't register at FSM website? It says "Account creation failed. Please contact system administrator for further assistance."
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Have you registered with FSM? This is done offline.
river.sand
post Aug 4 2016, 12:03 AM

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QUOTE(dasecret @ Aug 3 2016, 10:28 AM)
But then if you only chose 1, very unlikely to choose CIMB small cap right? Kenanga Growth Fund and EI Small cap 10 year return is so much higher compared to CIMB small cap, in fact, all durations also better than CIMB small cap

No offense, just trying to say sometimes fundhouse diversification may not work... there was a term for it right? to describe over diversification
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Assuming there are two small cap funds, A and B.

Top 5 stocks of A: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5
Top 5 stocks of B: 5, 6, 7, 8, 9

Fund A bought stock 5 at 1.00;
Fund B bought stock 5 at 1.50;
Current price: 1.40

Question: Is owning 2 small cap funds a bad idea?

P/S The term diworseification was coined by Peter Lynch. It refers to scenarios whereby a company diversifies into segments it has no advantage, e.g. plantation firm enters into banking. Nothing to do with UTF portfolio.
river.sand
post Aug 5 2016, 04:45 PM

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QUOTE(Pink Spider @ Aug 5 2016, 03:04 PM)
In the long run...who champion? innocent.gif
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Is GTF managed by local fund manager?
CIMB's ex FM left for RHB last year. Don't know if this affect the performance.

river.sand
post Aug 8 2016, 10:49 AM

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QUOTE(Pink Spider @ Aug 8 2016, 09:20 AM)
Spread it over 6-12 months, don't put in one shot.

And don't put all in 1 fund, just my opinion.

At least

Kenanga Growth
1 Global Equity
1 Asia ex Japan Equity
1 Asian bond
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If one has epf, then my opinion is that bond fund is not essential, unless it's junk bonds.

Investment grade bonds have lower yield than epf, and no more safer.

This post has been edited by river.sand: Aug 8 2016, 10:51 AM
river.sand
post Aug 8 2016, 05:11 PM

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QUOTE(Pink Spider @ Aug 8 2016, 03:43 PM)
That's why I told u to slowly deploy it over 6-12 month to even it out.

But to wait for a meaningful crash? That's wishful thinking. Don't wait, act now. Some crash will never come. The dividend incomes that u (would) receive while waiting for the crash may be more than the capital gain that u may stand to have if u wait.
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I gotta remind myself of this:
Before GE12, when the Parliament was dissolved, market dropped.
Before GE13, investors were expecting similar market movement. Some exited market as early as 2012. But when the Parliament was finally dissolved in 2013, market didn't dropped...
river.sand
post Aug 9 2016, 08:05 PM

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QUOTE(xuzen @ Aug 9 2016, 02:24 PM)
I read from many sources, discard what is noise and only take what is important.

"News create noises; numbers create momentum"

Xuzen
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Well, I also read something like these:

Risk is measurable, uncertainty is not.

source:
Tan Sri Andrew Sheng
http://www.thestar.com.my/business/busines...of-uncertainty/

Investing in stocks is an art, not a science, and people who've been trained to rigidly quantify everything have a big disadvantage. If stockpicking could be quantified, you could rent time on the nearest Cray computer and make a fortune.

source:
Peter Lynch
One Up on Wall Street

river.sand
post Aug 10 2016, 05:09 PM

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QUOTE(jayzshadower @ Aug 10 2016, 03:11 PM)
Haha, okay. I will use the 30 days benefit.

I have 15k. I will start with KGF, Small Cap and Titan, good idea ? hmm.gif
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If 15k is all you plan to invest this year, suggest that you spread it over a few months, e.g. 5k this month, another 5k in October, and another 5k in December.
river.sand
post Aug 11 2016, 10:46 AM

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QUOTE(wongmunkeong @ Aug 11 2016, 09:01 AM)
maybe better words to use "low correlated assets/sub-assets"
than diversify / DieWorseIffy  laugh.gif
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Wong Sifu's words are Einstein level. I try to explain it in Newton level words laugh.gif

Diversify across asset classes, markets, industries and segments.

Notes:
1. Small cap is not a distinctive asset class, market, industry or segment.
2. There are few UTF which focus on specific industry. A few exceptions are those which invest in precious metals and tech stocks.
3. Diversify across industries is probably more relevant to stock investment.
river.sand
post Aug 11 2016, 08:19 PM

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QUOTE(Pink Spider @ Aug 11 2016, 04:11 PM)
I thought they export a lot of their stuff? unsure.gif
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Japan's businesses are declining. Look at these industries:

consumer electronics - Sony, Panasonic etc. have lost to Samsung, LG
smartphone - you know already
auto - perhaps the only industry Japan is still leading, but the gap has narrowed
camera - Canon, Nikon & Sony are the leaders, but we increasingly use smartphone to snap pictures
watch - Japan once beat Switzerland, thanks to its digital watches. But now?
drone - China is the largest maker
solar panel - China is the largest maker
high speed rail - China is again a strong contender
games - Pokemon Go is made by Niantic, not Nintendo
robotics - Japan is strong in industrial robotics, but none of the popular home-use robotic vacuum cleaners are made by Japan companies
J-pop - lost to K-pop

Perhaps Uniqlo is the only saving grace of Japan bye.gif

river.sand
post Aug 12 2016, 04:46 PM

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QUOTE(wongmunkeong @ Aug 12 2016, 02:13 PM)
hehe - correlation % freebies only since i'm kiamsiap
morning the star Xray for mutual funds & https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/asset-correlations for ETFs & stocks
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This one got records for all funds offered in Malaysia?
river.sand
post Aug 18 2016, 03:23 PM

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QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Aug 18 2016, 02:52 PM)
Most likely bad quarter results
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Quarterly results by ULICORP were good...
http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/5102281
river.sand
post Aug 18 2016, 09:12 PM

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QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Aug 18 2016, 05:52 PM)
I refer to Q2/2016 which will b out by tis mth
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Results not yet announced, how investors know confused.gif
No warning/indication from the management also.

Unless it's insider trading...
river.sand
post Aug 19 2016, 11:48 AM

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QUOTE(WannaGetBuffed @ Aug 19 2016, 11:43 AM)
Agent asking me to invest Affin Hwang SOF using my EPF

Question: Is it worth it long term > 10-15 years
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You can't withdraw your epf savings until age 55 anyway.
river.sand
post Aug 19 2016, 06:13 PM

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QUOTE(Avangelice @ Aug 19 2016, 05:53 PM)
If you have props you can use your EPF to pay for the installment.
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That's Account 2 mah...

river.sand
post Aug 19 2016, 06:16 PM

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QUOTE(pisces88 @ Aug 19 2016, 04:15 PM)
I kena 2 RHB funds hmm.gif why RHB loves uli so much?
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Fund manager is the same person, right?
Lazy to study different stocks for different funds, so just copy paste lor...
river.sand
post Aug 19 2016, 09:39 PM

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Just did a quick analysis of ULICORP.
Its trailing PER, at the 52-week high of 6.86, was 35x.
Considering its CAGR of the past 4 years was only 11, the price of 6.86 was fairly high.
So the recent sell down was profit taking and correction. Current price of 4.00 is more reasonable.
river.sand
post Aug 20 2016, 08:22 PM

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QUOTE(xuzen @ Aug 20 2016, 02:52 PM)
Less talk MOAR mathematics!

Let's take two UTF A & UTF B

Recall the standard formula for portfolio std dev is sqroot of [(w1r1)^2+ (w2r2)^2 + 2w1r1w2r2 x (Corr-Coeff)]

where w = weighting of the UTF, r = risk aka std-dev

In one scenario, where there is little diversification the corr-coeff will be around 1, lets that = 1. Now you put that into the equation, you will see the overall portfolio std-dev will increase. That is why we say little diversification is bad, as shown mathematically.

In another scenario, where there is very good diversification, let's give the corr-coeff = zero. Now you will see the bolded part of the equation becomes zero. Do you see now the portfolio std-dev becomes less than the first scenario?

Hence back to T231H's assertion that putting 7.5% each into Ponzi 1 & 2 instead of into either one only. You check the corr-coeff btw Ponzi 1 & 2, you will see the corr-coeff is very high probably > 0.90, which is close to 1 which means no diversification at all.

T231H, actually, if you do that, that is, putting 7.5% each into Ponzi 1 & 2, instead of reducing risk, you are actually increasing it. Why? Coz numbers don't lie.

Xuzen
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hmm.gif

Let's say:
w1 = w2 = 50% (not 7.5%!)
r1 = r2 = 8%
Corr-Coeff = 0.95

Put in the numbers, we get...
Std-Dev = 7.9% (which is lower than r1 & r2)

If Corr-Coeff = 1, we instead get...
Std-Dev = 8% (which is same as r1 & r2)


This post has been edited by river.sand: Aug 20 2016, 09:47 PM

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