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 Fundsupermart.com v14, Happy 牛(bull!) Year

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j.passing.by
post Aug 1 2016, 03:53 PM

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QUOTE(j.passing.by @ Jul 29 2016, 04:01 PM)
If the 760 payment is for 12 months on an investment of 4200, that's a IRR of 416%.

Everyone will be abandoning their UT units... fund houses will go empty... fund managers out of jobs... laugh.gif

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QUOTE(em0kia @ Jul 31 2016, 02:53 AM)
hey, feeling curious, how did you get the IRR value?
My way of calculation is:

RM760 * 12 = RM9120

If invest RM4200,

9120/4200 = 2.17.

416% is like doubling twice right?
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okay, simple maths should be adequately clarified, otherwise IRR could be taken as dubious maths doing manipulative accounting.

1. The returns are 9120 - 4200 = 4920. This RM4920 is the ROI (returns on investment).

2. This ROI can also be expressed in percentage. 4920/4200 x 100% = 117%.

3. If the payment is in one lump sum at the end of 12 months, then this percentage of 117% is also the effective rate, meaning it is based on annual basis. The effective rate is to have an apple-to-apple comparision.

4. If the payment is in 2 payments, RM4560 in June and another RM4560 in Dec, then the effective rate, using the Excel XIRR function to quickly calculate it, is 196%.

5. This shows that getting 2 payments is better than getting one lump sum payment, 196% vs 117%.

6. If the payment is every month, then the IRR increases further to 416%. Showing that it is giving a much higher effective returns, 416% vs 117%.

Of course, if we sit down and think which one is better - one payment at the end of 12 months or getting payments every month, we could also come to the right answer using common sense.

The simple maths, using IRR to show the effective returns, shows the answer in more precise numbers to show how lucrative the returns are.

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PS. There is no easy formula to calculate the IRR. The quick and easy way is using Excel function XIRR.

Within this XIRR function, it has a recursive looping algorithm making a 'guess' each time it goes through the loop until it gets closer and closer to the answer.

The 3rd number in the function helps to start the guesswork... otherwise the function could fail to give any answer if it was looping too many times...

This post has been edited by j.passing.by: Aug 1 2016, 03:56 PM
j.passing.by
post Aug 9 2016, 04:13 PM

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QUOTE(dasecret @ Aug 9 2016, 11:25 AM)
I think he's trying to say, mathematically it doesn't look possible. I'd rate it as both fund composition also extremely unlikely. You have very unrealistic expectation as to what unit trust funds can do

However, mathematically there's something that would work. Put in more capital in your portfolio. If you double the amount in your portfolio, then instead of ROI has to increase by 12% you would only need to increase your ROI by... I don't know how much, a lot less for sure.... say if your ROI is 4% for 4 months, that'll be 12% annualised IRR, and when you offset against the 4% IRR for existing portfolio, probably can achieve your magical 6%?

But to be honest, all these for the illusioned 6% IRR, is it worth it? Give your portfolio some time (most important ingredient), and segment diversification instead of fundhouse diversification... it will get there at some point. Why the rush and take irrational actions?
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QUOTE(dasecret @ Aug 9 2016, 01:43 PM)
Actually even during not so bad times also
Let's see my funds with returns >10% (all funds invested for >1 year)
1. Ponzi 1.0 - 10.99%
2. KGF - 11.1%
3. RHB ATR - 16.57%
4. RHB Asian Income - 10.08%

Pretty balanced wor, 2 EQ fund and 2 balanced/bond fund. In fact the highest is the bond fund

But of course my risk appetite is not like the others in this thread, so I won't have anything near 70% IRR
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I think you are mixing up CAGR and IRR... and yklooi who monitors his portfolio daily (and getting a feel of real numbers in action) knows it better.

That 4 funds with their percentages are either the CAGR on a lump sum purchase or the IRR on a group of purchases on the same fund.

On the other hand, IRR is on the whole portfolio, or on a group of different funds, or on a group of many transactions on a single fund.

A 70% CAGR on a single transaction, depending on its time-value (and also its volume) - which is most likely less than a month held due to its high figure - will have little influence in boosting up the portfolio IRR.


j.passing.by
post Aug 9 2016, 04:53 PM

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QUOTE(yklooi @ Aug 9 2016, 11:36 AM)
hmm.gif if i double the the investment,...in this short period, if there is some gains, the IRR value will be freaky high....
playing with mathematic to achieve the target?.... hmm.gif

why rush?...bcos, i think the longer one waits, the higher ones ROI needed to gets to the targeted IRR.
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Think about this... to get the expected performance, you need to get lucky - not once, but twice. Lucky to get it before it goes up, and lucky again to get out at the right time at the peak.

But in trying to achieve the expected returns... the expectation is already limiting the "luck" and not letting it run to its peak since we would have taken profit when it hit the desired returns.

That is if we are lucky to be holding the right fund... and luck could also runs out before the fund reached the desired expectation returns and plummet again before we can take profit.

When you plan to get into any particular fund and give it a 3 months run....

... you've gotta ask yourself one question: "Do I feel lucky?" Well, do ya, punk?

QUOTE(dasecret @ Aug 9 2016, 04:21 PM)
I guess the comment is quite confusing for the non-regulars. Let me try to explain a bit more
The returns for my funds are calculated using XIRR formula. My portfolio IRR is quite average in the group, around 7%

The 70% I believe, is also IRR, achieved not by myself but someone else. It's believable because he also told us what fund he bought
[attachmentid=7283152]

There's a great excel spreadsheet in post 1 that most of us use to help calculate IRR automatically, hence why we are usually on the same page
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Whether it is true or not or a typo or mistake, it do not really matters... real experience based on real numbers gained from monitoring a real portfolio do matters... your own portfolio matters, trying to replicate what others achieved - ""Do I feel lucky?" Well, do ya, punk?" smile.gif




j.passing.by
post Aug 22 2016, 02:20 PM

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QUOTE(dasecret @ Aug 22 2016, 11:00 AM)
I thought the topic of risk return ratio/relationship is more relevant with what happened in the malaysia small cap market in the past week

It's quite clear that the Eastspring funds despite having as much exposure to United U-Li was hit less badly than the RHB funds. Doesn't that demonstrate that EI is a better fund manager, at least in this particular segment. So when we want to pick 1 fund in this segment, should go for EI instead of RHB

I think RHB has some pretty solid funds too, maybe just not in this segment
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Had just google to see what is United U-Li, whether it is small-cap, fledgling or penny stock... got this page on institutional shareholders... RHB 10.08%, Eastspring 4.27%.... share dropped on 18/8 -9.09%.

http://markets.ft.com/data/equities/tearsh...e?s=ULICORP:KLS

The report is as at 30/Mar... it may not be the usual daily holdings as funds are known to do window dressing for the quarterly reports...

EPF is the largest fund and is holding only 3.02%, hence the percentage within its own fund is a very small minute percentage maybe 0.001%.

The question is: We may diversified with more than one fund, but is the fund itself is diversified enough?



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