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 STOCK MARKET DISCUSSION V150

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zacknistelrooy
post Sep 21 2016, 01:17 AM

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QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Sep 20 2016, 08:57 PM)
Ekovest will b suspended for trading on 21/9
Could it due to finalisation of agrt to sell 40% of KLUT to EPF?  hmm.gif
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Looks like it, they way it has moved up is either the news is positive or they are doing corporate exercise.
zacknistelrooy
post Sep 21 2016, 07:51 PM

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Looks like the rumor was true after all.

EPF to buy 40% stake in DUKE concessionaire for RM1.13b
zacknistelrooy
post Oct 8 2016, 01:17 AM

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QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Oct 7 2016, 10:24 AM)
Stock market likely to improve in next 12-18 months — UOB
http://www.theedgemarkets.com/my/article/s...s-%E2%80%94-uob

Time to nibble?
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Tough to time the bottom in my opinion, a nimble here and there might work.

Malaysia's trade to remain modest, say economists
zacknistelrooy
post Oct 8 2016, 05:48 PM

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QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Oct 8 2016, 01:03 PM)
I wud opined tat if Investors can apply pareto principle of 80/20 (i.e. 80% success), overall portfolios r above average dy
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Yes that is true.

This Wednesday's Industrial Production will be interesting.
zacknistelrooy
post Oct 14 2016, 11:09 PM

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QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Oct 13 2016, 07:51 PM)
Dbhd will b suspended for material announcement on 14/10
Can u smell wat the BOD is cooking?
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Damansara Realty in JV to develop township in Tampoi


zacknistelrooy
post Oct 18 2016, 12:08 AM

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Puncak Niaga buys Shin Yang’s oil palm unit for RM446 mil
zacknistelrooy
post Oct 26 2016, 02:05 PM

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QUOTE(nexona88 @ Oct 25 2016, 04:07 PM)
Trading Of Tanah Makmur Shares Suspended.

what's cooking over there brows.gif hmm.gif
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Tanah Makmur up after Tengku Mahkota of Pahang raises offer

Up a bit today but on low volume, only 370,000.
zacknistelrooy
post Oct 27 2016, 02:29 PM

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MAHB 3Q net profit plunges 84.4% on lack of one-time gain
zacknistelrooy
post Apr 25 2020, 08:27 PM

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QUOTE(Cubalagi @ Apr 25 2020, 06:27 PM)
Where u hear?

Bank Negara MPC meeting on 5th May.
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Probably from here:
http://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/bnm-...2%80%94-cgscimb

QUOTE(eric.tangps @ Apr 25 2020, 06:52 PM)
Lowered rates, effect will cause pensioners and savers suffering in rates.  Lower FD rates.

Punish savers, encourage loan takers.
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That has unfortunately been the case for Europe and Japan for quite a while.

In the end it will force pension funds and individuals to take on more risk

Japan has other issues but if you look at Europe, it created a massive demand for income generating assets like property which now hangs in the balance.


QUOTE(!@#$%^ @ Apr 25 2020, 07:34 PM)
have to stimulate economy.
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In a normal circumstance that is valid but this time around it is a demand and supply shock so using old methods doesn't always yield the same results.

Australia will be one of the test cases as they have so far moved to to stop the shock temporarily and their measures will last for 6 months.

QUOTE
The federal government will pay eligible employers $1,500 per fortnight for each eligible worker, about 70% of the national median wage.

zacknistelrooy
post Apr 27 2020, 05:29 PM

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QUOTE(Pain4UrsinZ @ Apr 27 2020, 04:56 PM)
how to check floating share available ?
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Can check under factsheet in the following website. It will be categorized as Issued & Paid-up Shares

QUOTE
https://www.shareinvestor.com/fundamental/factsheet.html?counter=1023.MY

zacknistelrooy
post Apr 27 2020, 10:58 PM

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QUOTE(whyseej00 @ Apr 27 2020, 08:19 PM)
Reversal coming, foreign entities selling like crazy. RM 1b out last Friday
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I am not sure about that

Over the years I have seen aggressive foreign selling yet the markets here haven't even went down much

Foreign funds were net sellers in March up to 5 bil yet the market rebounded

They haven't been buyers since the end of January

It will probably matter when local funds run out of cash to keep buying up what the foreigners are selling

Also Asian markets sentiment will probably matter more

This post has been edited by zacknistelrooy: Apr 27 2020, 10:58 PM
zacknistelrooy
post Apr 30 2020, 07:38 PM

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QUOTE(GloryKnight @ Apr 30 2020, 04:13 PM)
RDSB results are out.

Cut two-third dividend to 16cents from 47cents.

I am giving a scenario of 16cents again for the next Q, which is very optimistic already given the months of april and may is gone.

Taking a GBX scenario.
Scenario 1: 13pence*4Q with current price at 13.5pound: ~4% divvy yield
Scenario 2: assuming Q1 to Q4: Q1 16p + Q2 16p (because they secure loan and cuts share repurchase, may be able to give the same dividend as per Q1), Q3 and Q4 recover to 20p: ~5% divvy yield.

At current price of 13.5
Scenario 1: ~50pence - 4%
Scenario 2: ~70pence - 5%

Is it still a good purchase now? Or is it fairly valued? Im putting 13.5 pound share as the current price. Of course, if it is lower, your yield will increase. Now...my take, i will wait for it to drop more to justify the yield, given the circumstances of oil price increasing but without demand still, its like taking a shot at future already.
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Finally

First cut since WW2

Unlike BP or Exxon who said they are maintaining their dividend which doesn't make sense with their current cash flow

Definitely on my buy list once those yield chasing investors move to others as it is one of the highest payers in the FTSE 100.


ConocoPhillips said they are voluntary cutting nearly 420,000 barrels per day

This is more and more looking like it will benefit the big majors if they still have cash left once the oil markets stabilize

This post has been edited by zacknistelrooy: Apr 30 2020, 07:40 PM
zacknistelrooy
post Apr 30 2020, 11:50 PM

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QUOTE(GloryKnight @ Apr 30 2020, 09:46 PM)
What's your comfortable price to enter zack? The drop is big today. The only unsure thing is the next 3 days.

It is about 5.5% yield given the same scenarios i put, with slight adjustment to 12.5 instead of 13.5.

To hit 6% ish, it must go down to 1150. Oilprice really swings. I hope some made money when i call it to average at 24 early last week.
On a side note if interested, get into BP once below 300, HSBC and Stan chart below 400, get all in, once it rebounds, go for a quick profit.
Currently FTSE and europe is looking bad because ECB offers more funding for banks and also predicts might -12% GDP this year, investors panic. hahaahah
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I am optimistic that it can go to at least to around 1150 but if it never goes there then I would just go back to my core holdings of tech stocks as I rarely trade and quite stubborn on prices sometimes.

Thanks for the bank tips and BP although I rarely venture in the banking sector

Do you think the selling is over in HSBC because so many people and even organizations were relying on their dividend?

Looks like a good trading stock but mid to long term hold is in the air
zacknistelrooy
post May 1 2020, 01:07 AM

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QUOTE(GloryKnight @ May 1 2020, 12:36 AM)
It still boils down to fundamentals for the banks. Hsbc and scb are emerging markets focussed banks and top 10/100 in the world. One of the other reason to like scb is if you like DBS, then all the better as temasek owns a big part of it if you like (not a very appaling reason but sg can wield more shareholder power like Icahn).

HKers are emotional people but very calculative. Obviously HSBC biggest bank there and once economy recover slowly but surely in the long run, money will pour back in. But ive been monitoring these two and yoyo above below 400, some support levels.

Other cases, try offshore banks or even LATAM banks. Some are a cheap deal right now. Whats your tech profiles like? Im monitoring some now too. Missed the boat on TTD earlier.
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Cool

Thank you for the insights

LATAM seems quite complicated at least for buy and hold strategy with the volatility of their currencies.

Even recently the Brazilian real went parabolic which has been one of the main reasons I avoided LATAM but with the kind of drops it has had then it seems like a good deal like you said.


For tech just the usual suspects

Amazon, Microsoft, Salesforce, Adobe, Visa, Shopify and Docusign.
zacknistelrooy
post May 1 2020, 09:58 PM

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QUOTE(GloryKnight @ May 1 2020, 05:07 PM)
ITUB - latam shares, looking for an entry.
NTB - im vested in this one currently (super glad i make the right decision, just didnt go thousands inside, with a few hundred dollars only, i would say for banks, i dont buy JPM, BAC, i choose these offshore banks where ultra rich are), this stock is a keeper for long term hold. I will go more when it goes down if ever. Reported good growths compared to big banks today!

Tech stocks: i havent made any buys but looking at ur above list, only amazon, msoft, visa, rubi, alteryx and yext are on my watchlist (mix of growth and majors).
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Makes sense

Any idea why they started to underperform from late 2018?

Don't seem much issue with their financials except the P/B is closer to the average.

Yeah Alteryx platform is great.

If you are looking for LATM tech stock they maybe have a look at GLOB. They are like the Accenture for LATM

Bounced a bit but a good buy during dips if the crisis doesn't last too long


zacknistelrooy
post May 2 2020, 09:57 PM

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https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/mala...A0tengku-zafrul

QUOTE
Malaysia's central bank had forecast in April for growth in gross domestic product (GDP) of between -2% and 0.5% this year.

"But that forecast was made after just two weeks of movement curbs. We're now more than five weeks in ... so our GDP could shrink even more," Tengku Zafrul said in an interview with a local television channel.

zacknistelrooy
post May 3 2020, 10:00 PM

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QUOTE(whyseej00 @ May 3 2020, 11:56 AM)
-ve interests are very uncapitalistic lol. But maybe fed level, consumer maybe still +ve
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Actually some banks have been moving that way at least in Europe

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/12/danish-bank...rest-rates.html

QUOTE
Jyske Bank A/S, Denmark’s third-largest bank, announced on Monday, Aug. 5, that it is offering 10-year mortgages at a rate of negative 0.5%.

Another Danish bank, Nordea Bank Abp, also said that it will begin offering 20-year fixed-rate mortgages with 0% interest, as well as 30-year mortgages at 0.5%, Bloomberg reports.


https://www.handelsblatt.com/finanzen/banke...LbDjuUjonl7-ap5

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Frankfurt Deutsche Bank will soon introduce negative interest rates for large deposits in its retail banking business and that of its subsidiary Postbank. “The ongoing pressure from negative interest rates makes it necessary for Deutsche Bank to charge custody fees for new contracts for high deposits beyond an allowance of EUR 100,000 per account from May 18, 2020,” a spokesman for the institute told Handelsblatt on request. The custody fee should amount to 0.5 percent and thus corresponds to the fees that the European Central Bank (ECB) charges banks for money parked there.

“This helps us on the earnings side, but above all it helps to prevent further inflows of particularly high deposits that cost us money,” wrote Manfred Knof, head of the bank’s German private customer business, to his employees. This applies “especially in the event that other banks further adjust their conditions and their customers are looking for an alternative for their deposits with us”.

So far, Deutsche Bank has only charged large corporate clients and very wealthy private clients negative interest on large deposits. The new regulation for high private customer deposits of more than 100,000 euros applies “exclusively for new contracts” in the private customer business. “Existing account contracts are not affected,” said a spokesman for the bank. Customers with lower deposits were also spared. “In the broad customer business with relatively low deposits, Deutsche Bank does not pass on custody fees for deposits to customers.”

zacknistelrooy
post May 3 2020, 11:48 PM

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QUOTE(whyseej00 @ May 3 2020, 10:40 PM)
Japan has been doing that for a decade. But US has never gone negative
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Yes and without much results as they have other problems like their demographic.

US unlikely to go negative and even the FED chair said they won't but after the past two months one can never say never

Their One-month and three-month Treasury bills did go negative just for a bit in March though but do agree with you that it will unlikely reach the consumer level even if it does
zacknistelrooy
post May 5 2020, 08:45 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ May 5 2020, 05:48 PM)
LOL. No, I did not buy and I don't share my trades.

ARB has 290+ million shares.
ARB has err.. 790+ million shares. (do check the actual total)

Now the problem is created when ARB PA shares can be converted 1 for 1 with a conversion price. Hence, as per market terminology, it is in the money, where you can buy the PA shares converts the PA into ordinary share by paying 20 sen. Hence you will get people buying the PA shares, convert then sell. (you can see announcements on tons of PA shares being converted on Bursa announcements)

For a slightly longer time frame trader this creates a selling pressure on the stock.  Whatever potential the stock has it will be limited by the conversion/selling of the stock.

Now when you add on both ARB and its PA shares, this is a fairly large penny stock with 1 billion shares. And when you factor in the diluted eps caused by the PA share, ARB eps is really diluted...

... and yeah.. it's a silly stock with the preference share LARGER than the ordinary share...
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There is also a emerging market fund that recently bought into it so potential selling pressure from there too but that doesn't mean the stock has to go down as we know from past events in Bursa


For any REIT holders

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/klcc...83-sen-dividend

QUOTE
KLCCP Stapled Group has reported a 3.85% decline in net profit to RM176.88 million for the first quarter ended March 31, 2020 (1QFY20), from RM183.96 million a year earlier, due to the negative impact in its hotel segment.

On prospects, the group expects the performance of the office segment to remain stable backed by the triple net lease agreements and long-term leases.

Amid the Covid-19 pandemic, the group anticipates that the hotel segment will be adversely affected for the rest of the year.

For the retail segment, KLCCP Stapled Group remains cautious as Suria continues to operate in a challenging environment, taking into consideration the potential changes in consumer behaviour and sentiments upon the MCO being lifted.

“We are likely to continue to feel the impact of Covid-19 for several months to come as the consumer sentiment is expected to remain cautious across all business segments,” said KLCC Property Holdings Bhd chief executive officer Datuk Hashim Wahir.

zacknistelrooy
post May 6 2020, 08:36 PM

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QUOTE(abcn1n @ May 5 2020, 11:40 PM)
Yeah, I did see the fund buying although  this does not guarantee that price will rise. 1 good example is media prima where for a long time there was foreign buying but price kept dropping.
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Definitely no guarantee but Media Prima always had foreign fund even during the early days in 2005. To many funds sometimes doesn't have the same effects as one or two funds


QUOTE(Boon3 @ May 6 2020, 08:08 AM)
Yea but the conversion of the preference shares outweighs. With the preference shares grossly outnumbering the ordinary shares and the constant conversions prior Feb was so intense... see below

Such plays but traders like us at a great disadvantage. It is a clear avoid at all means for me.
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True

Anyways they always create history in KLSE like pushing Dsconic from 2 to 10 in a short while with low volume although it was a low float that time around or even Widad recently which went up non stop for 4 months

Anything is possible with the amount of groups out there pushing all these stocks

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