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 STOCK MARKET DISCUSSION V150

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criticalbomb
post May 16 2022, 09:33 PM

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Impart on increasing Interest rate on insurance company
Example:Allianz Malaysia Berhad

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Bond Yield going up=Bond Price going down

As i know ,US Fed are going to increase interest rate few time this year,may be our BNM will be Follow.

My prediction=Their Equity Value going to tank so as their share price.
criticalbomb
post May 19 2022, 03:35 PM

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Case Study for incoming future interest rate up cycle in bank institution

Ideally Interest Rate Yield Curve
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Bank makes a profit from the difference between Short Term and Long Term interest rates,also known as interest rate spread.
Bank borrow from pubic in the form of FD (Short Term) and lend out to the people (Car Loan,House Loan,Business Loan) Long Term.

Newly MY Interest Rate Yield Curve
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As you can see from the above chart,when BNM decide to up BLR,all year yield should be up correspondence.
From the chart,3Y and 7Y Yield up the most.
There are some inverted yield curve between 7Y and 10Y
Ideally should be 10Y Yield >>> 7Y Yield

Summary
There are some potential risk to the economy in the short run.(Inverted Yield Curve Early Warning Sign)
Interest Rate Spread getting lower affecting future bank earning.
High interest Rate will cause non performing loans spike.
This is only first time BNM increasing BLR this year,i believe more to came in the future.

Thank for Reading.
criticalbomb
post May 19 2022, 04:43 PM

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Many people say buy bank stock when interest rate up rising.
It is wrong ,should be the buy bank stock when the interest spread going higher.Even Warren Sell their Bank Stock this year and bet big on oil counter.
criticalbomb
post May 20 2022, 02:24 PM

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QUOTE(YH1234 @ May 20 2022, 12:12 PM)
is interest spread a transparent information? bank not necessarily gain more when interest rate hike, but they are in better shape compare to rest relatively speaking, most choose to park their fund in bank or bank stock during slow down and inflation, thats the main reason i guess why bank stock goes up. recession could be another story.
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For me,i hold same cash now while waiting opportunity to came.
Oil/commodity counter both should be at peak earning,i believe inflation should be peak as we move though interest up cycle.

criticalbomb
post Oct 1 2022, 08:57 PM

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QUOTE(square2 @ Sep 21 2022, 12:27 PM)
stock ideas to discuss when oil and gas price is low

thong guan, bpplastic, tomypak, SLP and scientex packaging
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Dialog>>Price Target=1.50
-Need more tanker storage for excess production.

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Hibiscus >>Price Target=0.30-0.50
-If recession in 2023

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In mean time,i am shorting in oil and nasdaq

SCO And SQQQ To the moon

 

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