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 STOCK MARKET DISCUSSION V150

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TechnoG
post Apr 21 2020, 06:52 PM

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QUOTE(Quang1819 @ Apr 21 2020, 11:32 AM)
Really moungantai

My Serbadk from profit to loss kawkaw within few days
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not an expert chartist here but serbadk is double top now bro sweat.gif
TechnoG
post Apr 30 2020, 09:46 PM

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QUOTE(propertyfeature @ Apr 30 2020, 09:12 PM)
Got a bad feeling about today's rally
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rally looking very tired today, however managed to snuck in a quick trade on JHM

dow jones futures heading down
TechnoG
post May 14 2020, 01:51 PM

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QUOTE(zstan @ May 14 2020, 01:34 PM)
i'm still waiting for maybank price to drop but it's so damn stable sad.gif  not as exciting as the rest chasing penny stocks biggrin.gif
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if you’re waiting for Maybank might as well throw those tourism stocks like shang, landmark or AA for the matter of fact into your list.

day traded LKL on Tues and rode K1 from opening yesterday till lunch. As someone mentioned earlier, these stocks have nonsensical valuations now. Hop over to i3 and people are spamming with FA on why it should still go up when the party bus have already left.
TechnoG
post May 17 2020, 09:59 PM

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QUOTE(brown.ho @ May 16 2020, 06:09 PM)
Hey, mind sharing any stable stocks for long term keep? Thinking of picking up AirAsia since it is relatively low compared to pre-covid numbers
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as much as I would like to recommend AA, risk to reward isn't worth it as it has too much downside risk.

a quick look at what is happening to airlines around the world,
» Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... «
https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/com...r_old_industry/

As mentioned by the other forumer, short-term term sounds alright assuming AA will get a 'bailout' loan from government. Nobody knows.

This post has been edited by TechnoG: May 17 2020, 09:59 PM
TechnoG
post May 18 2020, 09:19 PM

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QUOTE(andrekua2 @ May 18 2020, 06:45 PM)
Why not keep Comfort?

Comfort would be like what Hartalega is like 12 years ago. Imagine with only 1-2 factories (10 or so high speed lines per factories), with each expansion, you will boost your output between 50-100%. That is growth.

Hartalega, Top Glove, Kossan, Supermax will not have these fairy tales anymore. Yes, they are more established, guaranteed recession proof but I dont expect surprise with the exception of Top Glove due to their no.1 spot of controlling more than 10% of global gloves output.
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let's all be honest, glove counters are running high on the back of this COVID-19 pandemic. Investors and speculators alike are pricing in the spike in demand for gloves during these tough times.

But, what if say a vaccine is found within one month? Moderna Inc (Nasdaq: MRNA) already up more than 30% pre-market trading as their human trials seems successful.
do you think gloves are as much as in demand during the pre-Covid times? Probably QR can sustain the sky high valuation for another year before reality hits.

I am all in for short term holding and riding the goreng train. Long term view I will definitely put it as overpriced due to the PE ratio but I could be wrong if COVID-22 hits us in the future tongue.gif

This post has been edited by TechnoG: May 18 2020, 09:27 PM
TechnoG
post May 20 2020, 08:40 PM

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QUOTE(Lazyguy1337 @ May 20 2020, 07:37 PM)
RSAWIT still can hold? like retrace alot today, I entered 0.31
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why RSAWIT though?

sudden spike on LKL, CAREPLS and K1 gives me an uneasy feeling
TechnoG
post May 21 2020, 08:02 PM

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QUOTE(Vanguard 2015 @ May 21 2020, 01:58 PM)
Fuyoh. So many whales here. Some have earned enough to pay for the down payment of a car.

I only earned enough to buy one new Iphone with some change left.  blush.gif
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I believe glove counters have made a number of people rich...and some really big whales here brows.gif

congrats to all Supermax and Top Glove holders, a good safe haven asset.

This post has been edited by TechnoG: May 21 2020, 08:02 PM
TechnoG
post May 29 2020, 10:23 PM

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QUOTE(kereta @ May 29 2020, 04:53 PM)
Lol the way you all play shares like going into Vegas gamble.

To all readers out there, there is also a bias in information sharing too. See the past few pages, all share how much they earned lol, but not a single post about losses. One side is win, the other side must be lose. The sharing of information is not equal for win and lose.
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I do admit I am.

My portfolio can be up 35% one week and down 3% two days later. Lost money on O&G using contra after cashing out on healthcare.

as long as my net return stays above current FD rate, I’m more than happy to roll a dice with better odds than casinos.
TechnoG
post May 30 2020, 07:09 PM

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QUOTE(delsoo @ May 30 2020, 11:13 AM)
Ok, thanks. If there's another OPR cut in July, the price of banking stock will be affected as well right ? Plan to get some banking stock for long term  investment puposes, not sure if I shall all in this time, or wait till annoucmenent in July.
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priced in already

it's more or less known there will be a cut in the coming meeting. Whether the 25 bp cut on July, or later during 3rd quarter will depend on economic datas coming out the next couple of weeks.

a higher than expected hit on a bank's QR will generally move the stock more
TechnoG
post Jun 1 2020, 10:47 PM

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QUOTE(kembayang @ Jun 1 2020, 04:43 PM)
I see.
How about their child like K1 Topglov warrants?
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the very least I would suggest to you is to do some light reading on warrants from NagaWarrants or MalaysiaWarrants by Macquarie.

buying K1-WC straight at market offer of 0.30 will give you a break even price of 0.60, mother share only at 0.445??
same with Top Glove too, implied volatility will murder you if you buy those longer dated calls

Then again this couple of days nothing makes sense la. But just to be sure you know what you are trying to goreng.

This post has been edited by TechnoG: Jun 1 2020, 10:55 PM
TechnoG
post Jun 2 2020, 10:35 AM

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QUOTE(zstan @ Jun 2 2020, 10:33 AM)
time for re-entry? drool.gif
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brokers capping the price for margin accounts, who is going to pump now?
TechnoG
post Jun 2 2020, 11:36 PM

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QUOTE(anakMY @ Jun 2 2020, 10:38 AM)
never played margin account, how they cap it? meaning they cant buy for certain price?
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as I only do contra, would appreciate if margin players can correct me if I'm wrong.

1. say I have a margin account with 50% margin limit, currently holding TOPGLOV.
2. broker will calculate my margin using 8.64 (35% haircut is 9.62) instead of the 'true' market value of 14.80 (today's closing price)
3. if my margin account is at 50% calculated with 14.80, it will definitely trigger a margin call as future calculation at 8.64 will result in my margin at ~70%
4. broker force sell my holdings to ensure margin remains at 50%

major question is,
QUOTE
The risk-on appetite has been evident among investors since the start of May, he said, when margin-financing share purchases started to pick up, in tandem with the surge in glove-related counters.

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/brok...trading-madness
who will drive the now exhausted margin accounts fueled glove counters rally, foreign investors? whistling.gif

This post has been edited by TechnoG: Jun 2 2020, 11:37 PM
TechnoG
post Jun 8 2020, 09:43 PM

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good write up by thestar today.

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/busines...ely-to-continue
QUOTE
“Yes, technically we are in a bull market, which is a 20% recovery from a market low, but we believe this rally is being primarily led by a surge in domestic liquidity, especially retail liquidity rather than fundamentals, ” he said.

Having said that, he believes domestic liquidity which is ample, spurred by an environment of low interest rates or a lack of alternative investment choices, can continue to support the market.

But “we would not be chasing, ” he said.

“Retail sentiment can easily turn, and the worst of the earnings and non performing loans/bankruptcy newsflow is still ahead of us, ” he cautioned.

don't think the correction will happen anytime soon.
I myself am not holding any overnight position as of recent, hit and run on big swings only.

This post has been edited by TechnoG: Jun 8 2020, 09:44 PM
TechnoG
post Jun 10 2020, 11:42 PM

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QUOTE(ronnie @ Jun 10 2020, 06:01 PM)
From the selling pressure, dont expect the TOPGLOV QR to be good right ?
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QR will definitely be good. Which brings us back to the question, since everyone knows it’ll be exceptionally good...it’s priced in already?

if KLCI continues to rise to 1.6k I’ll load up on put warrants tongue.gif
TechnoG
post Jun 11 2020, 06:17 PM

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QUOTE(GUESS?? @ Jun 11 2020, 05:39 PM)
DJI drop 500+, are we forsee another round of red sea tmr?
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Yeah why not? I’m predicting renewed interest in glove counters in morning session before tapering off till day end.

Anyway, just my 2 cents on Top Glove. If you understand stocks being priced in or expectations, you shouldn’t have swooped in today or yesterday. Market is already looking at a massive QR during first week of MCO so a big fat green figure should be expected.

for example, if you think car prices will be higher by 5% next week because of a hike in sales tax, would you buy the car today or next week? Obviously buy one today yeah?
And if next week the hike was only by a slightly higher 6%, what will you do?

Aside from that, my put warrants are looking good today.

happy trading!
TechnoG
post Jun 14 2020, 10:43 AM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Jun 13 2020, 12:34 PM)
“I’m sure Warren Buffett is a great guy but when it comes to stocks he’s washed up,” Portnoy tweeted Tuesday. “I’m the captain now.”

https://twitter.com/stoolpresidente/status/...-of-day-traders

Which guru is local equivalent?
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There is some sense to what he tweeted. WB is such a boomer, going heavy on grandpa stocks like Boeing and airlines with incredibly small holdings on technology stocks. Explains why his fund got burnt during the recent drop.

Then again these guys are just pure gamblers using leverage tongue.gif


TechnoG
post Jun 14 2020, 10:14 PM

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QUOTE(Raymond_ACCA @ Jun 14 2020, 03:37 PM)
Boeing and airlines? You sure he has Boeing in his portfolio in recent years? Small holding on tech stocks?

For your information, for every USD100 that you’re investing in Berkshire, you’re investing USD20 in Apple. That’s how much it’s worth.

Also, Berkshire is not a fund. And no, it did not get burnt in recent drop.
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okay let me rephrase everything since I used the terms extremely loosely.

'going heavy on Boeing and airlines' - gives you the idea what kind of stocks you are looking at, stuff people in the 90's buy. Might be mistake on my end for including Boeing.
I don't have specific names but I believe he dabbles his time with manufacturing, F&B etc

small holdings referring to the numbers held out of the entire stock market, not holding size of a specific stock. Where are the chipmakers, software companies? I'm not even going to include TSLA as you can argue it's not a tech company.

okay, Berkshire is an investment firm or something along the lines of that. I used it loosely and does not specifically refer to hedge funds or fund management etc.

Berkshire disappointing Q1 results explains it? even though they liquidated most of their equity holdings for cash?
he exited fast on airlines, buying high and sell low - https://www.forbesmiddleeast.com/billionair...mid-market-rout
can't say about other holdings though

This post has been edited by TechnoG: Jun 14 2020, 10:18 PM
TechnoG
post Jun 14 2020, 10:26 PM

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QUOTE(zstan @ Jun 14 2020, 09:54 PM)
did u even read Berkshire annual report before? sweat.gif most of the tech blue chips he hold damn a lot
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he is notorious for avoiding tech stocks, so which tech blue chip specifically?

there is even a write up why my old man dislike tech stocks.
https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/05...logy-sector.asp

anyway, I think we've gone off topic. I still love my local tech stock (DSONIC) icon_rolleyes.gif
TechnoG
post Jun 15 2020, 02:58 PM

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QUOTE(lowya @ Jun 15 2020, 02:41 PM)
Put FBMKLCI-HAF and FBMKLCI-HAF insurance to the down side can be bought, size it correctly according to your portfolio size.
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went full naked on H8Z this morning at 0.30
hopefully goes ITM by next week

happy trading boys

This post has been edited by TechnoG: Jun 15 2020, 02:59 PM
TechnoG
post Jun 17 2020, 09:06 PM

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increased my put warrant position today

failed to hedge with gpacket or dsonic

will quit bursa if my warrants expire worthless sad.gif

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