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 STOCK MARKET DISCUSSION V150

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Smurfs
post Aug 4 2017, 01:11 PM

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QUOTE(miyakochan89 @ Aug 1 2017, 09:24 AM)
I wanna learn stock exchange, but I don't wanna charge into blindly and listen to random rumors. Are there any good books to recommend to learn about analysis and etc?
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Do you prefer chinese or english written books?
Smurfs
post May 16 2019, 02:34 PM

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QUOTE(GnomeMage @ May 16 2019, 01:14 PM)
Guys... My reit has a 0.0194 payout per share and i hold 900 units. So i supposed i get paid 17.46 . But i only receive 10 something in my account. Is it because of transaction fee?
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Out of 0.0194 how many sens are taxable?
Smurfs
post Nov 22 2019, 11:11 AM

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QUOTE(abdrahib @ Nov 21 2019, 09:46 PM)
You are lucky if you can get 7-10% dividen  in unit trust.Of course stock is better.Capital gain + dividen
I recommend ARREIT (Amanah Raya Real Estate Trust).Dividens 4 times a year.Now below 80 sen.iPO price 1rgt.
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Why would you recommend ARREIT instead of other M-REIT?

Is it due to the price drop below IPO, appears to be a value buy currently?
Smurfs
post Mar 18 2020, 08:55 AM

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QUOTE(kkk8787 @ Mar 18 2020, 06:12 AM)
R we near the lowest for the current pandemic now or just the beginning when it will fall further
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No one here has crystal ball.

What do you think?
Smurfs
post Jun 7 2020, 06:07 PM

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QUOTE(MalaysianFire @ Jun 7 2020, 05:17 PM)
I'm having a strategy of value investing:
1. ROE must be above 10%
2. THE FCF/Revenue must be above 5%
3. Revenue and net profit must be continuously increasing over the last 5 years. Ideally, have a profit margin that is increasing slowly.

This is the filter that I have when screening for stocks. Only stick to 3 cause if I stick too many, think that'll be too strict and will miss out on counters.

However, am having so trouble to actually come up with the intrinsic value of the stock and the margin of safety of the stocks.

Wondering if any sifu here can help with that or to see if the requirements are good enough ! Thansk a lot smile.gif!
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Hello, nice strategy there.

But those counters that met these criteria the valuation wont be cheap, in terms of PE.

and price currently probably trading at record high.

And there is no fixed formula for intrinsic values, different investor might come out with different formula.
Smurfs
post Jun 9 2020, 08:14 PM

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QUOTE(life27 @ Jun 9 2020, 07:27 PM)
Sorry out of topic.

To whom i should email or file  a proper complain to this rakuten trade company  due to system total crash and total down today  from 9am until 12pm .

Total profit about 10k gone because not able to place order to sell off my share today.. customer service not able to call too like total blackout and ignore trader .
Please consider to help me and guide me how to properly file a report of compliant  to rakuten ?? Compliant  toward bursa ?
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Try SIDREC.

https://sidrec.com.my/
Smurfs
post Dec 18 2020, 04:05 PM

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Woah seems MI suddenly favoured here cool2.gif
Smurfs
post Jan 31 2021, 04:05 PM

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QUOTE(statikinetic @ Jan 31 2021, 02:58 PM)
Fundamental Analysis over the long term will always prevail. In the words of Benjamin Graham, over the long term the market is a weighing machine. This is correct to me, but it is not the issue which people are making it out to be. So what is the underlying issue?

It is a basic assumption a lot of people make when talking about FA.

Everyone thinks their Fundamental Analysis is always correct.
Fundamental Analysis is not a common mathematical equation which is the same for everyone. This is the art of it which is more important than the science. The science is getting the common denominators like 4Q PE and Free Cash Flow. Everyone gets the same data calculations. Then what? You need to create the frame (story) to fit these data points in and this varies greatly from investor to investor. Industry knowledge, macro forces all come into play. Two companies with a PE of 15x and a free cash flow of RM100M is not the same.

FA is not the problem.
How investors think their FA is good enough...is.
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And most of the FA data are PAST figure....things that already happened.. Be it EPS / ROE / PE etc..

The most important thing in FA is actually the future earning prospect...in simple terms, can the company earn more in coming years..
Smurfs
post Mar 30 2021, 02:27 PM

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QUOTE(wayton @ Mar 30 2021, 02:10 PM)
EV hype is indeed very high in the stock market across the globe.

Strong growth in this area almost surely.
But have doubt the big hype turns into big profit.

Could be another dotcom repeat history.
Some success, some not

But for now, anything touch with EV and tech, fly to moon.
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QUOTE(Duckies @ Mar 30 2021, 02:13 PM)
But this could really the forward moving trend for automobile industry. Just like how people switched from horse and carriage to steam engine and then now. It could be much more in the future instead of temporary hype. What do you think?
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Like it or not, electric vehicle will be the future laugh.gif

As the regulation for CO2 emission in Europe is getting tighter, car manufacturer has to explore green energy be it electric car or fuel cell...

Conventional combustion engine wont disappear overnight, but the production of combustion engine vehicle has been on the downtrend.

Here is the link of Daimler Sustainability Report 2020 published recently.

https://www.daimler.com/sustainability/sust...eport-2020.html

"In 2020 we more than tripled the sales of our plug-in hybrids and all-electric vehicles in the car and van segments."
Smurfs
post Jun 5 2021, 08:40 AM

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QUOTE(corad @ Jun 4 2021, 10:43 PM)
any reputable writers / websites to follow regarding advice on Bursa ?

and just out of interest, do forumers here trade on Bursa full time or just put into a company / sector you think has a future of improving ?

thinking along the lines of Latitude, Press Metal ... how to spot a good stock ?
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Unfortunately most of the advice on bursa written on blog post / website / forum comes with vested interest...

One still need to digest and analyze those info with due diligence..

Do take comments on forum with a pinch of salt.. yes including this post. laugh.gif


Smurfs
post Jun 5 2021, 03:14 PM

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QUOTE(corad @ Jun 5 2021, 10:44 AM)
haha yes, Caveat lector ... up to us to decide what to believe in.

how about lessons on how stock / stock market works ? at least for beginner, because from what I see there are companies who are already successful before listing (Dialog / MMC) .... and also companies who list in the hopes of becoming successful ? (Stone Master)
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There are several ways to learn on how stock market works..

Some can learn via reading books...Peter Lynch's One up on wall street is quite good for beginner..

Some needed to be told, hence free online courses from Coursera helps.. Like THIS ...

Most so called "GURU" that advertise in FBs Youtube are just teaching very basic stuff that can be found online biggrin.gif

Depends on your learning style..you have to explore and find which suits you best.

Good luck !

P/S in stock market, The more you know, the more you know you don't know rclxub.gif
Smurfs
post Jun 15 2021, 09:03 PM

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QUOTE(coldbasecamp @ Jun 15 2021, 08:49 PM)
can collect for long term dividend, before this pandemic TG's CAGR is quite okay.
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Hold for long term dividend is a good idea, only IF both the share price & DPU is constant laugh.gif

What if the company earning less in the future, which result in lesser dividend payout...and due to less dividend, share price go down again? cry.gif

Share price : decline
Dividend receive : reduced

At the end, wasting money in stock market ranting.gif

Smurfs
post Jun 17 2021, 10:33 AM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Jun 16 2021, 12:39 PM)
yours is widescreen.....  cry.gif  cry.gif  cry.gif

mine is macam letter box....  cry.gif

user posted image

which is more efficient?
Answer? The one that you are most good at. tongue.gif
Clearly the stock is bias to the downside...
the volume is shrinking - indicating the lack of interest...

so getting in anytime now versus being the patient one... well, which do you choose?

laugh.gif
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And if you flip the chart of UWC

user posted image

cool2.gif
Smurfs
post Jun 17 2021, 02:17 PM

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QUOTE(billy_overheat @ Jun 17 2021, 12:39 PM)
sitting tight is mostly fine for me. Usually when the vol decreases and price goes up, together with some other factors like news and alerts in qr will make me sell, when things clear up a bit and charts go back up, I will then find reentry.

i do like to look at various companies and see how their businesses doing but they are of secondary data, aren't they? all we can do is googling and reading and sometimes confirmation bias happens.  hmm.gif  hmm.gif

it's a lonewolf job but too much info stirs things up too from various comments. have to strive for a balance.  hmm.gif
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What do you mean by secondary data?
Smurfs
post Jun 23 2021, 11:30 AM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Jun 23 2021, 10:29 AM)
Nah... I do some homework updating for you...

Here's a case study on TG very good dividend...

so assume here... we follow the big big boss and buy shares the same time and at the same price.... wonder the current result?

user posted image

The highlight in yellow is a DBT transaction....

So he bought 41,130,600 shares valued at 226,938,480.61.

Wahalauehh... RM226 million......

Average price = 5.45

This morning opening price is 4.47.

That's ONLY a paper loss of 43.084 million....

Yeah, but TG gives out good dividend mah....

Here's the dividends he got...

user posted image

A total of 17.650 million!!!
So if you follow the big, big boss buy... you will get 17.650 million in dividend but then your share is sitting on losses of 43.084 million.  rclxub.gif  rclxub.gif
Dividends? How? Big, big boss dumps in 226 million into his company, and yet......................  rclxub.gif
» Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... «

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Well...with the exploding profit, for me personally the dividend given by TopGlove is very low whistling.gif

Instead of wasting the money to buying back share, why dont just distribute back to shareholders [if there is no urgent need / plans of expansion / CAPEX]
Smurfs
post Jul 1 2021, 01:45 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Jul 1 2021, 12:49 PM)
Apparently they got a whole new range of products... wink.gif

Anyway, I am indeed familiar with Amway as I had discussion on the stock lonmg ago with Smurfs

>>>>>

Not too long ago Smurfs talked about Amway, in another thread - click here and see post#50
My reply was here - see post 53

Anyway, this Amway example, showed the risks in investing/trading for dividends.
BECAUSE once the profits for the company decline, the dividends, naturally, wold decline too.
... and with it... the stock price would decline too.

Conclusion? Dividends is not a 100% gimme.

And once the dividends are cut...
the stock price will follow suit and decline too!

And for the case of YTL and YTLP...
both are huge companies...
but look at the stock price the last 5 years......

>>>>>

anyway, it's now 2021... laugh.gif
Its dividends, it has stopped falling....
the stock price now compared to 2016... very different (see, I would have die die argue to sell in 2015 and 2016... )

Profits? The last reported quarter was kinda a blowout quarter....

so yea... there's a personal benefit for myself when I make long posts...
those 'bad stuff' or poor stuff... it doesn't really hold true anymore...

see? see?
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Wow that was 5 years back...

time to re-visit my own writing see if any mistake made.....
Smurfs
post Jul 1 2021, 03:08 PM

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QUOTE(squarepilot @ Jul 1 2021, 02:54 PM)
so if you are uncle enough. Amway during economic crisis will do better or do worse? laugh.gif

user posted image

somehow affected
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Yeah is is good to use past event as references..however, each crisis will be slightly different.. Like this time COVID it started off with health crisis then slowly turn to economic crisis..

But one thing is for sure, crisis time is the golden opportunity for a company to re-look into their cost base, and make adjustment accordingly.

Those company that are able to sail through crisis will emerge stronger flex.gif

QUOTE(Boon3 @ Jul 1 2021, 02:58 PM)
hahahaha !!!

It's a never ending process. biggrin.gif
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AMWAY , worth looking ? DPU 27.5 sens since FY 2017 till FY2020 laugh.gif

Lack of volume at the moment yawn.gif
Smurfs
post Jul 2 2021, 12:19 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Jul 2 2021, 10:41 AM)
Smurfs

so that's my review of an old writing.... what about yours? found anything interesting to blow out some water?  drool.gif
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Aiyo..i have to go dig my library this morning laugh.gif

Anyway.. Just some updates on AMWAY's FOREX risks..I wrote :

QUOTE(Smurfs @ Oct 24 2016, 03:13 PM)

Lets take AMWAY for example :

Amway, one of the world largest direct selling business with handsome dividend payout (for now not anymore) , share price had plunged 30% from its peak. From the charts, we can see the price started to drop since Q4 2014.

To dig further, we need to use Google or our memory to trace back what actually happened during Q4 2014. There are few major events happend back then namely :
1) drop in crude oil price ;
2) which lead to RINGGIT drop ;
3) which increase the product cost for AMWAY since they imported their product to Malaysia.

Co-relation between USD/MYR and Amway share price
» Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... «


Extracted content from their Quarterly financial report
» Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... «

And in Year 2017, they manage to found a way to reduce the impact on volatile forex rate. This practice seems work very well and has been continue till today, guess it is really helpful in forecasting the cashflow, therefore the dividend from that year on wards remain constant till date(My wild guess la)

Snapshot from AR 2017
user posted image

Snapshot from AR 2018
user posted image

Snapshot from AR 2019
user posted image

Snapshot from AR 2020 & there is something new , Limited Risk Distributor transfer pricing model, and i'm wondering how that works laugh.gif
user posted image

Compare to 5 years back...COVID has accelerate the digital transformation in AMWAY.. They have launched AMWAYNOW and capitalize on eCommerce..

and new product coming soon - Atmosphere MINI !

P/S I'm not an Amway agent, not shareholder too.. icon_rolleyes.gif
Smurfs
post Jul 5 2021, 03:26 PM

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QUOTE(DarkknightDK @ Jul 5 2021, 03:12 PM)
Thanks again for the insight, ya definitely risks are present but will be cautious on this. Need to challenge my investment portfolio abit since i used to do alot of low risk investments.
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Just have to be careful and dont be misled by "High dividend Yield"...sometimes high dividend yield is because of drop in share price...sometimes even worst, both share price and DPU drop laugh.gif

Scenario 1 :

Let's say company X traded at RM3.50 per share and its DPU for current financial year is 0.20 sens per share..

Share price : 3.50
DPU : 0.20 sens

DY = 5.7 %

Scenario 2 :

After a year,stock market crash + business not good. Company X reduced dividend payout.

Share price 1.50
DPU : 0.10 sens

DY = 6.6% !

Yes you are holding a high dividend yield counter, but yet still lose money. Both capital depreciation + reduced dividend income cry.gif

P/S i'm not anti dividend, in fact i favor counter that pays consistent dividend / increasing dividend year by year..... laugh.gif
Smurfs
post Jul 7 2021, 10:59 AM

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The thing about stock market....

Everyone can be guru...we can simply give buy/sell call for any counters...

If kena = I'm Pro / told you so / you should follow my call
If tak kena = Be patient / market not good / i'm holding for long term / i'm investing

Even a Broken Clock is Right Twice a Day

And, bascially one cant be wrong...

Lets say A give buy call :

1.Maybank RM 7.50 on Jan 2020
2. When price drop below RM7.00 , A went missing
3. Today price RM 8.10 A come out and says, see told you so.

How can A be wrong ? laugh.gif

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