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 STOCK MARKET DISCUSSION V150

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Joblessjack P
post Aug 5 2024, 12:05 PM

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Is Malaysia stock market reacted more than it should have?

I feel there are 2 reasons for the USA stock market was in deep red

1) Unemployment data is bad then expected so market reacted sharply for those unemployment data. But this is also a indication for Fed for their Sep review. Fed almost confirmed for 25 basis points reduction but i feel it should be more than 25 basis points to improve job market in USA.

2) Japanese pull back from US Markets: From last 30years JP Markets didn't see any high and most of their money went to US markets(amount in trillions of Dollars). And currently Yen is under tremendous pressure and it is declining like there is no end. So Japan central bank increase interest rates to 0.25% which has stopped the Yen fall. So Japanese started pulling money back but at the same time the unemployment data read caused a bit of panic and pulled more money out of US markets.

Because of these 2 (as per my view) they are in sharp decalin but Malaysia doesn't have this JP effect yet Malaysia markets declining sharply.

May be right time to pick the right stock for long.
Joblessjack P
post Aug 5 2024, 12:23 PM

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May be or May not be.

May be: Warren buffett holding more money than anytime in his life. He is selling stocks from last 7 quarters and surprisingly he sold half of his Apple holdings in this Quarter. So he sensed something wrong with Market and he is expecting a correction. That could be a recession or just a correction.

May Not be: US is trying to avoid recession from long time by playing with their monitory policy and US can't afford a recession at this time while a war is going on EU and another in Middle east with elections are nearing. So they try to persuaded Fed to play again with their monitory policy to avoid recession.

I feel it is a sharp correction on stocks which saw new highs from last 1 year than a deep recession. I feel Fed play a role to make it right by increasing rates more than 25 basis points.

And coming to Malaysia, it has great domestic consumption and i feel the effect of US markets/Economy will impact Malaysia but not the way market is reacting.

 

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