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 STOCK MARKET DISCUSSION V150

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SUSGenY
post Aug 31 2017, 12:23 AM

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Is it just me or has the stock market become more volatile lately?

Previously when a good company announce one-off poor results the stock price does not move much - I thought that's the beauty of Bursa stocks compared to markets in HK or US.

Both my Powerroot and YSPSAH dropped a lot on Wed after poor results - basically I lost all profit gained from those two stocks in 2017.

My overall portfolio not seriously affected since it has 33 counters. But I still find it ... disquieting.

This post has been edited by GenY: Aug 31 2017, 12:24 AM
SUSGenY
post Aug 31 2017, 11:14 PM

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Aiyah, both 5-figure and 7-figure portfolio and even 9-figure portfolio can have 33 counters lah.

I'm a believer in diversification, that's all.

QUOTE(foofoosasa @ Aug 31 2017, 12:44 AM)
33 counters lmao. You must be holding millions ringgit then cool2.gif
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SUSGenY
post Aug 31 2017, 11:16 PM

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Yup, hopefully things will get better towards year end.

QUOTE(Vanguard 2015 @ Aug 31 2017, 05:26 PM)
You are not alone. My portfolio dropped 5% within 1 week. Now recovered slightly. I lost all my profits in Johotin and more than 1/2 of my profits in Cocoaland. NHFatt is bleeding. Air Asia...hmm, we shall see.

Soldier on!
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This post has been edited by GenY: Aug 31 2017, 11:16 PM
SUSGenY
post Sep 3 2017, 06:32 PM

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I plan to hold on to my current stocks because:
1. Valuations are not cheap, but not excessively expensive either.
2. Analysts will revise TP upwards when there's strong growth/good news.
3. Difficult to sell and then buy back as may end up having to buy back at higher price if there's strong growth/good news

But ... but ... Tuesday likely to be sea of red coz Fat Kim is playing with nukes vmad.gif


QUOTE(wayne84 @ Sep 1 2017, 02:15 PM)
I have a feeling of getting harder and harder to be a value investor. I currently holding Hevea, VS, Superlon and little bit of TGuan. Valuation of the all this stock not cheap anymore as most of the TP met. Its getting harder and harder to get a good fundamental stock with confident growth at Q4 17. Now facig a problem of wheter to sell n recollect when the price go lower or just hold all the way untill 2018 n review in the price still intact or not.
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SUSGenY
post Sep 4 2017, 11:19 PM

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Asian markets down moderately only today and US markets up slightly now, so Tuesday should be ok ... maybe down slightly only ... unless Tat Kim fires another missile.

QUOTE(oOoproz @ Sep 4 2017, 12:40 PM)
Now is wait and see situation, hopefully our portfolio can handle that impact  rclxub.gif
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SUSGenY
post Sep 4 2017, 11:27 PM

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You are bullish on MMSV cause of this article?
http://www.thestar.com.my/business/busines...ledigit-growth/

52 Weeks price range is RM0.51 - RM2.05. Kenanga gave fair value of RM1.11. Current price RM1.98.

Not giving any recommendation but I'll look elsewhere... I don't have the balls (or $) of KYY ....

QUOTE(wayne84 @ Sep 3 2017, 09:56 PM)
I like Fatty Kim.. last time his nukes fly over hokkaido I manage to top up some inventory..lolx.

U have any idea on MMSV ? I m observing MMSV. High growth opp coming but its tech stock..
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This post has been edited by GenY: Sep 4 2017, 11:30 PM
SUSGenY
post Sep 11 2017, 05:21 PM

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I won't buy any stock that he is promoting. But I did learn a few things from his writings lah, such as not to be fearful of using margin to enhance returns and buying only stocks with good profit growth and investor psychology.

QUOTE(tohca @ Sep 11 2017, 09:08 AM)
If he recommends to buy, then better sell as that's when he's unloading the stocks to you. He doesn't recommend stocks that is about to go up or has just started going up. But only when it has already reached the "moon" and about to fall that he will recommend gullible people to buy. A real "philanthropist".
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SUSGenY
post May 13 2018, 06:05 PM

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A couple of remisiers that I respect also posted that the market may go up.

And there's this:
https://www.thestar.com.my/business/busines...rowing-bullish/

But nobody knows for sure. Anything could happen.

LGE's appointment as finance minister and the "council of elders" are good for market confidence, IMHO.
SUSGenY
post Dec 12 2018, 05:47 PM

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Just prediction. Nobody can see the future.

QUOTE(nexona88 @ Dec 12 2018, 05:18 PM)
FBM KLCI is expected to rise some 100 points from just over 1,660 points currently to reach 1,780 points by the end of this year, according to Rakuten Trade.
http://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/klci...18-says-rakuten

possible to happen? hmm.gif
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SUSGenY
post Feb 3 2020, 09:17 PM

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WTF, major Asian markets have been shitty for most of the past few years. FBM KLCI just hit 9 year low.

LOL, unless u are referring to US markets lah.

QUOTE(moosset @ Feb 3 2020, 08:06 PM)
I thought everyone was expecting the market to have some sort of correction....  bangwall.gif

by the way, does USD tend to strengthen in times of market uncertainty? so it's best to hold USD as opposed to SGD or any other currencies?
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SUSGenY
post Feb 23 2020, 07:18 PM

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You are not the only one (thinking about stock market AND getting old)

The way I see it ... things have been so disappointing for the past 2 years that a new coalition might be just what Malaysia needed. I don't care who is in power ... only the politicians and their followers benefited, not me. I only want the stock market to go up, the cost of living be contained, the economy to improve and good paying jobs be aplenty.

QUOTE(Cubalagi @ Feb 23 2020, 03:52 PM)
Very strong political wind today.. So I start to think about stockmarket tomorrow. I must be old n cynical now.
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SUSGenY
post Feb 23 2020, 08:07 PM

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Yup, short term most likely go down ... especially if new govt not announced by tonight or early morning.

Just have to grit one's teeth lo. In the medium term should recover, IF the new govt puts the right persons in key ministries.

I have to disagree with Cubalagi. I think it's better if the stock market is closed for the whole of next week.

QUOTE(whyseej00 @ Feb 23 2020, 07:22 PM)
Any change in govt stock market will go down. See how low and are if it bounces or not
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SUSGenY
post Mar 4 2020, 07:07 PM

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LOL, for the past 2 shitty years, KLSE has been hitting new lows. Just sked not enough funds to take advantage.

QUOTE(kkk8787 @ Mar 4 2020, 10:12 AM)
When? What's the best shares to take advantage
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SUSGenY
post Mar 9 2020, 06:45 PM

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Today very bad day for the markets.

The only consolation is Malaysia now have good ministers in charge of economic matters.

International Trade and Industry: Azmin Ali - some may hate him but at least he's careful with his words and won't spook the markets.

Economic Affairs: Mustapa Mohamed - steady and experienced

Finance: Tengku Zafrul Tengku Abdul Aziz - investment banking background, somebody who understands finances and the markets



SUSGenY
post Mar 16 2020, 06:32 PM

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During this crisis, I did like what I did in the 2015/16 oil plunge, change of govt and trade war - I sell part of my portfolio when trailing stops of 25% are hit and "circle the wagons" around my remaining, core stocks.

Only when the dust settles, I'll start buying.

This has worked for me in the past ... but this crisis is worst and volatility far greater than past meltdown. Furthermore, my portfolio has been weaken by the many crisis in the past 5 years,especially the prolonged weakness of Bursa.

Btw I'm shopping for a personal loan so I'll have extra funds when the time comes, lol.
SUSGenY
post Apr 6 2020, 11:42 PM

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I think the worse is over. I know a lot of ppl urging caution, saying the bottom not in yet .... they might miss a lot.
SUSGenY
post Apr 7 2020, 12:33 AM

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There's a clear change in sentiments lah - the news has become 'less bad', which is bullish.


SUSGenY
post Apr 7 2020, 11:26 PM

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Many stocks still not too far from Mar 23 bottom what ... if u buy the correct ones today or tomolo, 50%-100% possible upside when all this is over.


QUOTE(pisces88 @ Apr 7 2020, 03:01 PM)
Missed opportunities during these mini bull run,reserves sitting around for nothing.. memang illogical run..

Managed to get some on friday n monday. Holding until opec meeting.

Dayang 1.4
Sapura 0.105
Hibiscus 0.45
Velesto 0.165

Next maybe will punt on some construction stocks, but late to party already.
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SUSGenY
post Apr 7 2020, 11:28 PM

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Market timing is difficult ....

Why jump in and out? If you pick the correct stocks even at current prices, still a lot of upside when all this is over.


QUOTE(Bendan520 @ Apr 7 2020, 08:22 PM)
Ya, I also used all my bullets..  tongue.gif

Hopefully tomorrow is another good day.
Then sell out before the big drop.
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SUSGenY
post Apr 7 2020, 11:41 PM

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Everywhere I turn, ppl (even so-called gurus) say the worst is not over. The number of ppl bullish can count with one hand.

But the herd is often wrong.

When I opened my first CDS a/c in May 2009, the remisier assigned to me say "don't buy, the market will drop again".

A top business ournalist who now heads a business mag also expects the market to drop again after Mar 2009 bottom.

We all know what happened after that.

So I used about 20-25% of my "dry powder" to buy stocks today.

Timing the bottom is impossible.

But I will spread out my buying over April and May ... will keep at least 20-25% of my powder dry until coast is clear ... a new bottom is always possible:

QUOTE
Britain set for 66,000 COVID-19 deaths, highest toll in Europe: study
Paris, April 7, 2020 (AFP) - Britain could see as many as 66,000 COVID-19 deaths during the first wave of the current pandemic, new research showed Tuesday, making the outbreak there by far the deadliest in Europe.
Modelling conducted by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington's School of Medicine showed that approximately 151,680 people were likely to die from the virus across the continent.
While the novel coronavirus emerged in China and was initially focussed in east Asia, the World Health Organization now says the pandemic is centred in western Europe, with Spain, Italy and France experiencing devastating death tolls.
Most European nations have introduced strict social distancing measures to try to stem the virus spread.
More than 5,000 people have died from COVID-19 in Britain, fewer than in Spain, Italy and France.
But Britain's epidemic lags behind the rest of the continent by several days, and its death toll trajectory is already steeper than other nations.
Using local and international data on case numbers, as well as age mortality breakdowns from Italy, China and the US, the team at IHME modelled the expected death toll on a country-by-country basis.
A key consideration was an individual nation's intensive care bed capacity.
It found that Britain could experience 66,000 COVID-19 deaths by July, far more than Italy, the next most severely impacted, with around 20,000.
Spain and France were next, with 19,000 and 15,000 predicted deaths, respectively.
"We are expecting a foreboding few weeks for people in many parts of Europe," said IHME Director Christopher Murray.
"It seems likely the number of deaths will exceed our projections for the United States.
On Sunday the institute predicted just over 80,000 US COVID-19 deaths during the pandemic's first wave.
The modelling suggests that outbreaks in Italy and Spain, where hundreds of deaths have been reported daily for weeks, may be past their peak.
Daily deaths in both countries have declined for several days.
But Britain is likely weeks away from getting a handle on its death toll as intensive care capacity is overwhelmed.
Peak demand was forecast to see more than 100,000 hospital beds needed versus the 17,765 currently available.
"The peak for Europe as a whole is expected in the third week of April," said Murray

- Could still get worse -

Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who is currently in intensive care with COVID-19, came in for criticism for his government's slow response to the pandemic.
Britain now has strict social distancing measures in place, but it had held off implementing them even as the outbreak surged in Europe.
The IHME models include the predicted effect of social distancing, and Murray said it was vital that measures are not relaxed too suddenly once countries pass their mortality peak.
"It is unequivocally evident that social distancing can, when well implemented and maintained, control the epidemic, leading to declining death rates," Murray said.
"Those nations hit hard early on implemented social distancing orders and may have the worst behind them as they are seeing important progress in reducing their death rates.
"Each nation's trajectory will change -- and dramatically for the worse -- if people ease up on social distancing or relax other precautions."
pg/klm/bmm
AFP

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