I want to highlight a few points here.
for those who think the glove is a bubble, have you consider the following:
1) new factory/supply expansion by new player - have you consider the technology that they use, the expertise that they have, whether they can produce 2.5g glove? If cannot, they only can produce heavier glove, is it cost efficient in material wise?
2) new factory/supply expansion by new player - have you consider where can they buy their material? current nitrile latex material from Taiwan and Korea is fully booked and the capacity expansion will take a longer time than expand of glove production line. So to get order for the material, do those new players need to pay spot order price?
3) ASP normalization - have you consider when will the ASP normalize? If you don't want to invest in glove purely due to price is rising due to Covid-19 cycle, then you should not invest in all other cyclical stock as well. Because all will normalized after the peak.
4) Profit - instead of thinking their profit unable to sustain forever, have you think what those companies can do with the cash on hand now? From an in-debt company turned into a nett positive cash company in just 6 months, as a businessman, what can you do with the cash on hand? Can I use those cash on hand, throw price on the ASP, those new players can match? You still want to invest in those new players?
5) Vaccine - do you know what's the vaccine for? Have you consider the process a vaccine development need to undergo? Have you consider what's the percentage of the infected population vs the healthy population?
To invest successfully in a business, you need to think like a businessman. That's the reason why WB keep stressing about circle of competent. If you don't want to study and do research, you will never know what those businesses are doing, how can you invest?
I think nobody is disputing this. Its just in the current environment whether I want to hold and risk further drop in my investment with the hope it goes back up or cut loss expecting it to drop further and then buy back when sentiment is not so bad.