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 STOCK MARKET DISCUSSION V150

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Boon3
post Jul 13 2022, 03:37 PM

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The bottom breaking down in Inari.... was that unexpected?

well, if one had done homework... and paid attention to say... Frontken

user posted image

one can see that is actually doing okay... the bottom was firming up...

but then.... this happened...

user posted image


and yea..... there .... devil.gif
Sherman Kong
post Jul 13 2022, 03:37 PM

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What happened to Scientex.... haihhh
Boon3
post Jul 13 2022, 03:45 PM

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QUOTE(Sherman Kong @ Jul 13 2022, 03:37 PM)
What happened to Scientex.... haihhh
*
it's breaking down really bad the past few months...

user posted image


the bigger picture...

user posted image



this stock being chatted many times... u can search for it.



thkent91
post Jul 13 2022, 04:40 PM

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QUOTE(Sherman Kong @ Jul 13 2022, 03:37 PM)
What happened to Scientex.... haihhh
*
Petrol chemicals and resin cost too high

Or/and

Property sector not doing well

May get even lower😆
Sherman Kong
post Jul 13 2022, 04:52 PM

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Bought at 4.120 lol, klci no eyes to see, everday dropping
square2
post Jul 13 2022, 05:15 PM

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QUOTE(Sherman Kong @ Jul 13 2022, 04:52 PM)
Bought at 4.120 lol, klci no eyes to see, everday dropping
*
on what basis you bought it?

oil price dropping?
Shanks747
post Jul 14 2022, 09:52 AM

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Which broker is good for newbie ?

If want trade worldwide not just malaysia...got any broker that does that ? and how fast is the process if transfer money to get the stocks ?
Sherman Kong
post Jul 14 2022, 11:48 AM

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QUOTE(square2 @ Jul 13 2022, 05:15 PM)
on what basis you bought it?

oil price dropping?
*
Positive outlook on its business, plus YOY growth.
Boon3
post Jul 14 2022, 05:27 PM

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QUOTE(Sherman Kong @ Jul 14 2022, 11:48 AM)
Positive outlook on its business, plus YOY growth.
*
It's quarterlies had already shown tell tale weakness since Jan...
Sherman Kong
post Jul 14 2022, 06:09 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Jul 14 2022, 05:27 PM)
It's quarterlies had already shown tell tale weakness since Jan...
*
I bought it last year
Boon3
post Jul 14 2022, 06:20 PM

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QUOTE(Sherman Kong @ Jul 14 2022, 06:09 PM)
I bought it last year
*
I had always felt the market has been way too generous with its valuations. Growth has been there but it is driven by its property segment. And property stocks valuations tends to be at much lower earnings multiples...
ChAOoz
post Jul 14 2022, 06:35 PM

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QUOTE(Sherman Kong @ Jul 13 2022, 03:37 PM)
What happened to Scientex.... haihhh
*
Got squeeze on both manufacturing and property end by material input cost. Rising construction material and rising resin/petrochemical prices for stretch film.

Upside is that demand seemed robust, and overall both property and stretch film sales are quite defensive.

Hopefully margin compression story end soon. I'm looking at it for a possible entry soon, waiting for an event trigger price breakdown like Malaysia official in recession news.
Boon3
post Jul 14 2022, 07:00 PM

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QUOTE(ChAOoz @ Jul 14 2022, 06:35 PM)
Got squeeze on both manufacturing and property end by material input cost. Rising construction material and rising resin/petrochemical prices for stretch film.

Upside is that demand seemed robust, and overall both property and stretch film sales are quite defensive.

Hopefully margin compression story end soon. I'm looking at it for a possible entry soon, waiting for an event trigger price breakdown like Malaysia official in recession news.
*
Glory days could be passed....

Its property success is coming with a cost - bad reputation for poor workmanship... do confirm this.

Glory days it was making 100million plus per quarter. If shit really starts to hit the fan (very much possible imo).. would it reverse back to 50+ million per quarter?

If so... the downside risk could be below rm2..
thkent91
post Jul 14 2022, 11:03 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Jul 14 2022, 07:00 PM)
Glory days could be passed....

Its property success is coming with a cost - bad reputation for poor workmanship... do confirm this.

Glory days it was making 100million plus per quarter. If shit really starts to hit the fan (very much possible imo).. would it reverse back to 50+ million per quarter?

If so... the downside risk could be below rm2..
*
Your view is abit too over pessimistic perhaps?
ChAOoz
post Jul 15 2022, 09:43 AM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Jul 14 2022, 07:00 PM)
Glory days could be passed....

Its property success is coming with a cost - bad reputation for poor workmanship... do confirm this.

Glory days it was making 100million plus per quarter. If shit really starts to hit the fan (very much possible imo).. would it reverse back to 50+ million per quarter?

If so... the downside risk could be below rm2..
*
Yeah i got heard about that. But then i search around for similar price range competitor and there is just not many.

Currently most developers are focusing on high rise while some bigger one like sime darby or ecoworld is focusing on mid to high end and not the affordable range for landed. So that leave scientex dominantly in the landed affordable space

But what you said there is a possibility of happening so just gotta becareful

This post has been edited by ChAOoz: Jul 15 2022, 09:44 AM
Boon3
post Jul 15 2022, 09:59 AM

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QUOTE(ChAOoz @ Jul 15 2022, 09:43 AM)
Yeah i got heard about that. But then i search around for similar price range competitor and there is just not many.

Currently most developers are focusing on high rise while some bigger one like sime darby or ecoworld is focusing on mid to high end and not the affordable range for landed. So that leave scientex dominantly in the landed affordable space

But what you said there is a possibility of happening so just gotta becareful
*
Well that's how I would have evaluated my downside risk.

And I will still hold what I said that the market had been way too generous with the stock valuation for it.

The bigger money contributor was from its property sector. That is its growth engine.... but the market wasn't valuing the company as a property stock. wink.gif

That was the biggest disconnect for me.

And lastly... when growth stocks stop growing, its corrections tends to be massive.... and the worst thing one could do is start talking about value and using value as the reason to hold the stock. (haven't we seen in cases like Harta?)
Boon3
post Jul 15 2022, 10:45 AM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Jul 15 2022, 09:59 AM)
Well that's how I would have evaluated my downside risk.

And I will still hold what I said that the market had been way too generous with the stock valuation for it.

The bigger money contributor was from its property sector. That  is its growth engine.... but the market wasn't valuing the company as a property stock. wink.gif

That was the biggest disconnect for me.

And lastly... when growth stocks stop growing, its corrections tends to be massive.... and the worst thing one could do is start talking about value and using value as the reason to hold the stock. (haven't we seen in cases like Harta?)
*
ChAOoz

this is from fy2021 Q4 ..

user posted image

Packaging sector was flat....
And the property sector was driving the company's growth...

* see how property earnings contributed more for Scientex's profits *

this is from its latest quarterlies .... see the decline in both....

user posted image



Davidtcf
post Jul 15 2022, 05:59 PM

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Better sell now if you holding any Malaysia cigarette stocks. Price gonna dive real soon:

https://www.nst.com.my/news/nation/2022/07/...day-says-khairy
SUSTOS
post Jul 18 2022, 11:09 AM

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Can't find a right thread to post this, but this one comes close.

The Big Read: Malaysia

The sultan, his family and a $15bn dispute over oil in Malaysia
The heirs to the last ruler of Sulu have seized state-owned energy assets in a lawsuit that dates back to colonial Britain

by Oliver Telling in Singapore and Leo Lewis in Tokyo (YESTERDAY)

» Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... «


This post has been edited by TOS: Jul 18 2022, 11:13 AM
Toku
post Jul 19 2022, 05:12 PM

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QUOTE(TOS @ Jul 18 2022, 11:09 AM)
Can't find a right thread to post this, but this one comes close.

The Big Read: Malaysia

The sultan, his family and a $15bn dispute over oil in Malaysia
The heirs to the last ruler of Sulu have seized state-owned energy assets in a lawsuit that dates back to colonial Britain

by Oliver Telling in Singapore and Leo Lewis in Tokyo (YESTERDAY)


The claimants’ lawyers warn that more state assets will be pursued unless a resolution is reached.

“International law doesn’t let you pick and choose,” says Cohen. “Either Malaysia honours its international obligations, or it goes ‘full Russia’.”

“The seizure process is a rolling programme that is designed to meet our clients’ financial demands,” he adds. “But we hope Malaysia will see the cost of being a legal pariah state and come to terms.”

Additional reporting by Eleanor Olcott in Taipei
[/spoiler]
*
What will happen if Malaysia go against the international law which award the assets to the claimants? Will Malaysia become 'full Russia'? Get sanction by western countries? Then our foreign stock/cash will be frozen? Scary.... Time to divest foreign investment?

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