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> STOCK MARKET DISCUSSION V150, Stay home and be safe

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Davidtcf
post Mar 7 2022, 11:57 AM

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QUOTE(statikinetic @ Mar 7 2022, 11:38 AM)
My decision to hedge part of the portfolio in SGD doesn't look too pretty now.
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My SG REITs steady wor.. sometimes got up and down a bit. But today check unrealized gain all up in green. Started invest in them few months ago.
At the same time can get 4-5% dividend + got growth. Waiting for SGD to go up also. Win-win for me.
thkent91
post Mar 7 2022, 12:05 PM

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QUOTE(ChAOoz @ Mar 7 2022, 11:30 AM)
Dont fight the fed, and feds not doing anything they already got hand full on their inflation problem.

So no V shape, no bottom fishing. Pile into defensive counter and just cruise through it.
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Defensive counter can also drop too
ChAOoz
post Mar 7 2022, 12:10 PM

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QUOTE(thkent91 @ Mar 7 2022, 12:05 PM)
Defensive counter can also drop too
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As long as you are in the market during a correction/bear/crash phase all stocks are affected.

Just the degree of value lost and time needed to recover is different. If you dont pay for over valued item, im sure they will just do fine in 5 or 10 years, they could even take a bear phase to consolidate and do buy backs if they are defensive enough.
Boon3
post Mar 7 2022, 12:23 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Mar 7 2022, 10:49 AM)
Fuyoh.... 80% off its highest ah? tongue.gif
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LOL!!

Okay....

1. Exaggerated a little bit there. Hohoo... Panic or excited?

Point is, like I said a while back, sooner or later, those ahem experts will come flying in and talking about tech being value stocks.

2. And you should know, these are really stocks plunging. And me would be the last time to come in trying to act smarty pants and talk about turning points/time to buy/supports/technicals blah, blah, blah.... tongue.gif


statikinetic
post Mar 7 2022, 12:29 PM

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QUOTE(thkent91 @ Mar 7 2022, 12:05 PM)
Defensive counter can also drop too
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Yes the do. But it is not an issue with my investment horizon as defensive stocks tend to do well in the long run.
Their only problem is nobody wants to get rich slow.

Tech stocks pluging has people questioning what is wrong with these stocks now. There is nothing wrong with Tech stocks per se.
In my opinion, their valuation went through the roof last year and this is an eventual correction.
ChAOoz
post Mar 7 2022, 12:35 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Mar 7 2022, 12:23 PM)
LOL!!

Okay....

1. Exaggerated a little bit there. Hohoo... Panic or excited?

Point is, like I said a while back, sooner or later, those ahem experts will come flying in and talking about tech being value stocks.

2. And you should know, these are really stocks plunging. And me would be the last time to come in trying to act smarty pants and talk about turning points/time to buy/supports/technicals blah, blah, blah.... tongue.gif
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Cycle Analysis blush.gif

Anyway i wonder did their AI predict a Ukraine-Russia war or not and a 130 barrel crude.

But i really believe there is something call value tech. All those cash generating big tech i have always love it. Now only if Apple can just get down to a more nicer valuation that would be great.
thkent91
post Mar 7 2022, 12:51 PM

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QUOTE(ChAOoz @ Mar 7 2022, 12:10 PM)
As long as you are in the market during a correction/bear/crash phase all stocks are affected.

Just the degree of value lost and time needed to recover is different. If you dont pay for over valued item, im sure they will just do fine in 5 or 10 years, they could even take a bear phase to consolidate and do buy backs if they are defensive enough.
*
QUOTE(statikinetic @ Mar 7 2022, 12:29 PM)
Yes the do. But it is not an issue with my investment horizon as defensive stocks tend to do well in the long run.
Their only problem is nobody wants to get rich slow.

Tech stocks pluging has people questioning what is wrong with these stocks now. There is nothing wrong with Tech stocks per se.
In my opinion, their valuation went through the roof last year and this is an eventual correction.
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I'm not sure whether counter like TNB, TM and Maybank can continue to give out nice dividend in the future if more and more company are not able to service their loans and Manufacturers stop work due to no demand
statikinetic
post Mar 7 2022, 01:03 PM

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QUOTE(thkent91 @ Mar 7 2022, 12:51 PM)
I'm not sure whether counter like TNB, TM and Maybank can continue to give out nice dividend in the future if more and more company are not able to service their loans and Manufacturers stop work due to no demand
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TNB really is the darling of retail investors.
Despite what it's balance sheet and revenue numbers say.
Boon3
post Mar 7 2022, 01:13 PM

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QUOTE(ChAOoz @ Mar 7 2022, 12:35 PM)
Cycle Analysis  blush.gif

Anyway i wonder did their AI predict a Ukraine-Russia war or not and a 130 barrel crude.

But i really believe there is something call value tech. All those cash generating big tech i have always love it. Now only if Apple can just get down to a more nicer valuation that would be great.
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laugh.gif

Cycle analysis? Is that like saying FS turns round in order? tongue.gif

Cash generating tech? UWC? Greatec?

Greatec... big concern. EV sector boom boom... but for the recent couple of quarters, Greatec sales is declining rapidly... which probably should be a concern. Why isn't the company getting new orders? What's happening? If sales is gonna continue to decline... the stock is frakk! And the more alarming thing is... after the recent massive plunge, Greatec is trading at ... err... 28x trailing earnings? rolleyes.gif rolleyes.gif How la?

the biggest question I am asking myself is... could we see the repeat of the 2000 'semicond/tech' crash?? Yeah.. the plunge of MPI...

130 crude oil already? Waa... I was just tinkering about 150 oil.... huge worry.... the situation is so much more complex... esp with the the so called boycott of Russiam oil. Saying so-called cause didn't Shell broke rank and bought some Russian oil? rolleyes.gif I can't even understand and I even wonder how much I can trust those so-called sifats from GS,JPM etc etc....

interesting times ahead.... another lifetime opportunity.... but best we do not get ahead of ourselves and try outsmarting the market. tongue.gif
Boon3
post Mar 7 2022, 01:16 PM

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QUOTE(statikinetic @ Mar 7 2022, 01:03 PM)
TNB really is the darling of retail investors.
Despite what it's balance sheet and revenue numbers say.
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Hehehe..... TNB huh.


Yalor........ yalor......

doesn't a picture says a thousand words? hmm.gif

user posted image
ChAOoz
post Mar 7 2022, 01:25 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Mar 7 2022, 01:13 PM)
laugh.gif

Cycle analysis? Is that like saying FS turns round in order? tongue.gif

Cash generating tech? UWC? Greatec?

Greatec... big concern. EV sector boom boom... but for the recent couple of quarters, Greatec sales is declining rapidly... which probably should be a concern. Why isn't the company getting new orders? What's happening? If sales is gonna continue to decline... the stock is frakk!  And the more alarming thing is... after the recent massive plunge, Greatec is trading at ... err... 28x trailing earnings?  rolleyes.gif  rolleyes.gif  How la?

the biggest question I am asking myself is... could we see the repeat of the 2000 'semicond/tech' crash?? Yeah.. the plunge of MPI...

130 crude oil already? Waa... I was just tinkering about 150 oil....  huge worry.... the situation is so much more complex... esp with the the so called boycott of Russiam oil. Saying so-called cause didn't Shell broke rank and bought some Russian oil?  rolleyes.gif  I can't even understand and I even wonder how much I can trust those so-called sifats from GS,JPM etc etc.... 

interesting times ahead.... another lifetime opportunity.... but best we do not get ahead of ourselves and try outsmarting the market. tongue.gif
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I'm staying away from local tech counters for the time being. Straight away go for their customer instead, and when big tech im looking at alphabet, microsoft, apple, Intel these kind.

For those im looking for something around 20 P/E and below, then just nice to open position. I am patience to wait laugh.gif

Intel is very confusing for me, they can be great turn around or they can be value trap. I'm really not sure what to make of them.
Boon3
post Mar 7 2022, 01:34 PM

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QUOTE(ChAOoz @ Mar 7 2022, 01:25 PM)
I'm staying away from local tech counters for the time being. Straight away go for their customer instead, and when big tech im looking at alphabet, microsoft, apple, Intel these kind.

For those im looking for something around 20 P/E and below, then just nice to open position. I am patience to wait  laugh.gif

Intel is very confusing for me, they can be great turn around or they can be value trap. I'm really not sure what to make of them.
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so sad.... me just a kampung boy ... sweat.gif
ChAOoz
post Mar 7 2022, 01:39 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Mar 7 2022, 01:34 PM)
so sad.... me just a kampung boy ...  sweat.gif
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If no retailer , bursa abit hard, liquidity problem.
Boon3
post Mar 7 2022, 01:41 PM

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QUOTE(ChAOoz @ Mar 7 2022, 01:39 PM)
If no retailer , bursa abit hard, liquidity problem.
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Wasn't me before... and surely can't be me now. tongue.gif
ChAOoz
post Mar 7 2022, 02:02 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Mar 7 2022, 01:41 PM)
Wasn't me before... and surely can't be me now. tongue.gif
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Now mostly left people like you. How to cari makan oh, no offense.
Boon3
post Mar 7 2022, 02:07 PM

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QUOTE(ChAOoz @ Mar 7 2022, 02:02 PM)
Now mostly left people like you. How to cari makan oh, no offense.
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None taken... tongue.gif

But got la.... still got many die harders around.... tongue.gif


was reading the story of Peloton ....

https://www.theedgesingapore.com/views/tech...ed-fitness-ride

interesting....
statikinetic
post Mar 7 2022, 02:14 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Mar 7 2022, 02:07 PM)
None taken... tongue.gif

But got la.... still got many die harders around.... tongue.gif
was reading the story of Peloton ....

https://www.theedgesingapore.com/views/tech...ed-fitness-ride

interesting....
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Peloton?
Last I remembered they were burning through cash in their strategy to establish a moat in the market. Wondering if they've managed to move their inventory in the past quarter.
Boon3
post Mar 7 2022, 02:28 PM

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QUOTE(statikinetic @ Mar 7 2022, 02:14 PM)
Peloton?
Last I remembered they were burning through cash in their strategy to establish a moat in the market. Wondering if they've managed to move their inventory in the past quarter.
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Rather interesting to read that the company enjoyed a mega boom during the start of Covid...
Company then expanded, new plants etc.... (which is logical)...

but most interesting thing was the shift in consumer trend ( important issue to consider)..
ppl just wanted to get out....
and workout outdoors.....

sales was hit.....
they over produced ..
double whammy.....




statikinetic
post Mar 7 2022, 02:33 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Mar 7 2022, 02:28 PM)
Rather interesting to read that the company enjoyed a mega boom during the start of Covid...
Company then expanded, new plants etc.... (which is logical)...

but most interesting thing was the shift in consumer trend ( important issue to consider)..
ppl just wanted to get out....
and workout outdoors.....

sales was hit.....
they over produced ..
double whammy.....
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They didn't talk about that shift in consumer trend at first and that inventory pileup was the red flag.
I think they have cash runway for the next 2 - 3 quarters left?

Sometimes I think you are an even more fundamental investor than I am. smile.gif
Boon3
post Mar 7 2022, 02:35 PM

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QUOTE(statikinetic @ Mar 7 2022, 02:33 PM)
They didn't talk about that shift in consumer trend at first and that inventory pileup was the red flag.
I think they have cash runway for the next 2 - 3 quarters left?

Sometimes I think you are an even more fundamental investor than I am. smile.gif
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LOL! I was reading nia.... tongue.gif

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