operator start throwing in money back into market

raya stock PRIVA finally reaching near my first TP.

Guess I will take some profit first.

Huh? Turning point mean the price will change in direction.

If currently is uptrend, then it will change to sideway or downtrend. Vise versa.

Mid June will have a turning point (I believe is correction) until final week of June then the big trend coming.

Maybe I’m too drowned with the passive income theory

Receiving dividends until the moment enter graveyards 😂

It’s okay. At this moment of time. Won’t be adding anymore.

Looking for a chance to sell and move to other sectors once the opportunity arise

Million dollar question 🙋‍♂️

What should we do during hyperinflation? Hold stocks? But knowing it will crash one day and hope we are not the last one in the musical chair game? I have not been into such phase in my life

Here is a very simplified line for hyperinflation.

Hold assets, not cash.

I cannot advise anything as I am not qualified.

What I myself will do, I will track and follow the smart money.

I will ride the melt-up in DJI and then exit in strength and wait patiently for shorting.

When everyone rushing in to buy, it's the time to sell.

Whatever majority of people do, I will do the opposite.

In China, there are people operating business where they hire young graduates, provide them basic salary and a lump sum of "war chest" to play stock market. Didn't provide them with any training. If they win money in stock market, they get bonus. If they lose money, they still get basic salary. Those business owners earn so much money when those young graduates lose money. They lose money when the graduates win money.

I have been experimenting with the AI bot on shorting during last two weeks, getting ready for 2H2021.

Not to say cannot touch but you really knew to survey steel pricing and demand. Steel price are kinda seasonal at times, and it can continuously spike for few months before supply finally caught up with demand. Therefore if pricing is low (sub 3k around November) and China were shutting down steel factories left right center to cut pollution. When steel price suddenly spike, it usually follow suit for few months. If you are not in the steel industry, you will not know whether steel price is up or not. Lion steel business is not very good but they still keep the production up and will have a stockpile which would be very easy to clear during the shortage period. However what goes up must come down, and it come crashing down as fast as it goes up. Right now price is still pretty much at the top but once China dump onto the market... then the fairy tale will end.

That's the theory ma .... but theories are theories. Sometimes it is simply better if one reviews one's investment and addressing the issue if whether one should take profit.... that's really a must la.

Cos, if you can sell your investment for a real good profit, why not?

why die die follow a theory and then only to be proven wrong?

Se letting it be, as per the theory, you know very well if see the company profits drops, the stock prices will drop. This one cannot escape one. So back to the first question I asked you... Current extreme profits. Ask yourself, what are the chances that such profits be repeated?

stock dividends.

Do we really want to get into this again?

I showed the few examples showing the impact of what will declining dividends do to a stock price. Still want to repeat meh? Dividends go down, stock prices will go down. Remember the Reits examples?



Okay, here's more simplicity issues for your consideration (ehmmm... you ownself research study and then decide la, don't ever let me be the deciding factor)

1. Who are the biggest buyers of these gloves? Europe and USA, yes?

2. Are the daily covid cases increasing or declining since the start of the year?

3. Vaccination. Do you know that as of 18th May, 1.48 Billion vaccinations has been administered so far.

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-va...l-distribution/

4. Is there recovery signs in Europe and USA?

look at sports.

In England, the FA Cup allowed 21,000 fans to watch the game. US Baseball is starting and they are allowing 1/4 capacity for fans. Things are looking up!


Simple, simple issues to address... with all these happening, do you think glove demand will increase or decrease for Europe/USA?




p/s and then the supply side issue.... increasing or decreasing?

this sounds interesting, how does it work?

The business owner hire another team who do whatever opposite of those young graduates do.

The young graduates buy stock "A", they sell/short stock "A". Because young graduates always buy at high price as they do not know how to take profit. Greed.

The young graduates sell stock "B", they buy stock "B". Because young graduates always sell at low price as they do not know how to cut loss. Fear.

Business owner role represent smart ass retailer trying to act as smart money without having the knowledge.

Young graduate role represent typical retail investor/trader.

Sound familiar? Yeah, that's what stock market, commodity market, forex market, whatever market is it.

This is real story. Not a fairy tale.

Wow.
Thanks for the insight.

i am also a dedicated passive income theory, but recently i am slowly changing my ways..

Don't get me wrong, i am still using/believe in passive income theory, but not as stubborn as before the pandemic.

The question is, what assets?

Just blowing some water la.... it's no big deal.


Passive income. The theory is of course good. But it's not so simple in real life.

Take our MReits. The idea of course is fantastic. What cam go wrong? Buy and hold and receive the dividends forever and ever.

Now the problem or the risk is .... as can be seen in c19 pandemic, how would ever think that holding malls reits could be so risky?
But unfortunately yes. As dividends reduce, the stock falls in share price.
And the problem here is, our price of investment.
If we had invested in the reit at an overly optimistic price, the fall in shares could be greater than the dividends received....
Well, yes, perhaps holding in for many, many year ... it might recover BUT what if it doesn't?

Look at CMMT. Okay, the quality of this REIT is questionable but the dividend yield has ALWAYS been very attractive and sexy....
but as sexy as it was... the dividends had always been reducing... which meant the stock price fell as dividend fell.
Holding this reit for a longer period, such as 7 years... did the investor no good.
End result still same... huge 'paper' losses. (for me paper losses or paper 'gain'... it's real. If you have paper gains, those gains are yours. No one is gonna take a sen away from you, unless of course the stock falls. Yup! Same with paper losses. The shares is only worth what the current traded price. Not a sen more. It doesn't care your cost of investment.)

But of course, the better ones, they probably might recover...

and this is the very problem/issue/risk with passive investment.

It simply takes a long time to prove our investment right or wrong.

Imagine.,.. 7 years.... only to find out your investment idea was right but then your stock selection was wrong.

And then.... yes.... your investment idea was correct, the stock pick was good, spot on but we bought the stock at the wrong price.

and then... of course... as proven now... the stock pick was good, the price of investment wasn't too bad but a sudden deep crisis (like C19) changed the whole business economics of the stock we picked... creating carnage and totally destroying the business fundamentals.

Yup, the theory could be right but our application of the theory might be faulty. How? Wait 7 or 10 years to prove that we are wrong? And what then to our investment? What if it's down 60%? Would we have to stomach to cut the losses?




and here's comes the screwball...........

mine is also theory...

I could also be wrong..... hahaha........

This post has been edited by Boon3: May 19 2021, 08:22 AM

yes i agree. This pandemic taught me a valuable lesson not to be stubborn in the methods of investing.

Thanks for the advise.

off topic question, do you mind sharing where do you get your news in current world events and do you have any particular books you read?

Thanks

This post has been edited by lee28: May 19 2021, 09:18 AM

Banking stock may benefit from inflation.

I am in O&G. We are not having a lot of new exploration projects for now.

Gold and Silver?

Judging one self objectively ... that's the most difficult thing in the stock market (in regardless whether one is punting, speculating, investing or trading)
failure to do so means one is never gonna to admit perhaps one is wrong.

which leads to whole lot of issues...
and ultimately leads to huge losses in the market...

for example...
they punted on the wrong stock (worst thing, it's not even their own stock pick, it's something they picked up in the forum ie a tip) ....
stock goes south ....
they do not acknowledge the mistake...
they then turn to find reasons why that wrong stock could be a good stock to hold long term...
in which... they turn a blind eye on whatever reason why that stock is a wrong stock pick...
they hold and hold...
and worst still, in cases, they compound this error by buying more of the stock...
they don't even admit that they are averaging down (or buying more of their initial mistake) ...
they use phrases such as the deadly 'dollar cost averaging'.....

I saw a youtube video before. Hyperinflation rarely affect normals because nobody gives money to the poor. Instead banks will continue lending to the rich, and where does the money goes into? Properties, stocks, crypto, etc. As long as the returns beat the lowly 1-2% interest rate, they will continue doing that. Meanwhile the poor will just look and wow... at those price hike... unable to do anything about it.

Wow look at bitcoin. Dropped to 40k already. Market crashing soon?