Hmm but does the increase of steel price affects the earning?

Also automative industry is hard to predict.. Sometimes they are hot when they release a good model and sometimes they are not.

This post has been edited by Duckies: May 17 2021, 09:30 PM

Whole market is deflated and jittery now.
It's not just a local thing, my US and China portfolios aren't too hot.

Keeping cash ready and waiting. Could be months for me at least.

How do market perceives Share buybacks - good or bad? i am seeing some of my counters going to reds because of this. but on the other hand, SBB is usually meant to distribute 'wealth' by way of dividend?

this operator very hardworking for 6 months!


today INARI has the highest positive nett cash inflow among all BURSA stocks.



This post has been edited by skty: May 17 2021, 11:10 PM

Lion Industries? Good luck with that choice. Obviously you knew nothing about steel industries.

Anyway, steel price has been rising a lot since December and now peaking around 4700-5000 (steel plates and round bars). Construction related steel are usually much cheaper (few hundreds cheaper). Hiaptek, LeonFuat and AnnJoo would be a better pick for steel price increase since they stockpile them. Certain counters are HRC (hot rolled coil) or CRC (cold rolled coil) players. Recently MITI recommended Kastam to increase duty for CRC from Vietnam due to anti dumping, hence it caused the price of CRC to spike really hard.

Lion Industries is under William Cheng and this guy had a HRC mill before named MegaSteel which went bust. They were unable to compete with oversea pricing and always rely on government protection. Even when TunM banned the import of these, they still could post losses after losses. They also had a bar center called AmSteel and those who bought their shares in the past will curse it to hell. Najib lifted many of the restrictions that prohibited importation for steel that were produced locally. Hence, steel mills are barely profitable.

BTW,

https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202105/1223616.shtml

China government had step in to control steel price from getting out of hand. Thats why yesterday selloff. To be honest, steel price around this level is not sustainable.

shortie resumed banging TG yesterday, continued on harta.

kossan, clearly they are getting out.

how is that when price fell??

There are times when one should know when and when not to bet in the market.

It's the same in a casino.
One's 'skills' still the same, the game is still the same... but.........

when some loud mouth uncle or auntie leans over one's shoulder and starts sharing their amazing vocal chords...
best one will ever do is...
get up from that table...
and time to go walk about......


same with the stock market....

Good sharing!


Yup... obviously one should never touch anything related with Lion .....

Those 3 i never research, so not much opinion. But i quick glance on their financials:

DPS -Inconsistent Revenue and Profit over the years. Doesn't show a really well managed business / growth industry.

Magni - Seemed solid from financials perspective. Interesting, possible to learn more

PPHB - Stable, but growth is slow and profit margin fluctuates quite significantly.

Overall i think Magni might be a good one to further look into, the rest should be just meh. Not very sexy, not very goreng. So i guess they just cruise along with up down 30% range bound ? PPHB might have some boom bust cycle in terms of net profit.

thanks for your feedback, if i'm not wrong, they have zero net debt, low p/cf, low ev/ebitda, attractive roe compared their peers, comparative pe under it's sector, comparative margin above by it's sector standard, technically below vol value price, all trending and oversold, suitable for both mid term trading and long term investing. maybe my view taken as a snapshot of latest and disregarding past history.

Anyone else like to share welcome discussion, i find this is better way to learn if we all put out our both pros and cons view points.

You are right with the casino comparison, where one's skills are the same and the game is still the same.
There is one additional parameter in the market which is the season.

Doing a lot of walking recently.

Of the three mentioned, Magni is the only one I am holding as an investable business over an extended period of time.
Full disclosure, I have been holding Magni long term so there may be some bias in my opinions.

As the other uncle would say.... wait for it... wait for the pitch with the big fat ball.... and swing for the benches!!




or something like that ......

yes you are right. somewhere near 1mill + units for TG yesterday
shorts as of now

TG - 557,700
Harta - 106,100
Spmx - 14,300
Kossan - 0

This post has been edited by BliitzkrieG: May 18 2021, 10:39 AM

my read... probably running out of bullets for TG.

now concentrating on harta - 5-20% daily sell is from shortie.

offset by SBB and EPF buying... how long will this battle go on?!

Guess they will continue doing it for another 2 years until WHO declare the pandemic is over and ppl lose interest in glove counters completely

i suppose they can do that.

just keep paying dividends and interest on loaned shares.

can afford... still sitting on rm100mil paper gain.

With super normal profit comes with super normal dividends. Yes, shorties going to pay the dividend and the interest and it is very risky for them do to it in gloves. What if the asp of gloves remain slightly higher or erosion of Malaysia ringgit against other currency? Higher forex rate will pump up exporters based shares historically

At the moment, USD is at the weak side unless Fed raise interest rate.

If Fed does raise interest rate, it means that pandemic is over, means glove ASP likely to drop.

That's why they took short position, they short base on trend, and with factors in favour on short and with calculated risk.

If their growth stay in tact, i believe Magni is a good hold. Just zoom out for a 2 - 5 years horizon instead of focusing on the near term 6 months.

I don't really know their business, but i believe they are industrial manufacturing ?

So far during this cycle i am holding mostly industrial and i see they are quite resilient, major headwind would be potential raw material price increases.

Magni is primarily garment and apparrel manufacturing. That represents 90% of their revenue stream.
They also have a packaging business but that contributes less than 10% of the total revenue.

Primary customer is Nike.