QUOTE(cherroy @ Apr 28 2020, 04:33 PM)
No doubt for short term, the demand would be still strong.
But at the sametimes, there are many new gloves factories in the pipeline as well. Many companies have been expanding significantly over the years due to good growth and profit.
Eg. PPE like face mask, its production quantity also increased dramatically globally just within a month or two, we no longer see acute shortage like last month or so.
It is not like supply will be staying stagnant in quantity.
More people will wear face mask, which result more demand but supply also increase in tandem as well.
When an industry is in high demand, and good profit, many others also want to join in the bandwagon as well, not to mention competitors may be expanding rapidly as well.
Near to mid term, prospect still good for those industry, but do not carry away or over-hype.
PPE, healthcare equipment hype may easily a replicate of peak oil (or oil will be always in high demand) hype 12 years ago.
I could be wrong though.
Well if they don't use their current profit to diversity then its really entirely their own undoing.
QUOTE(andrekua2 @ Apr 28 2020, 05:22 PM)
Actually there's no more expansion from glove sector. Some like Hartalega and Supermax are just doing what they have been planning for years, completing the big upgrade albeit very slowly. We did supply the parts for first 2 factories in Sepang in 2012 IIRC, then the new boss suddenly changed contractor due to some communication issue with my client. It was even more messy with the new contractor and the change in design was so bad that they couldn't keep factory 3&4 running full time. After tiptoe for a year or two, they went back to my client but damage already done. The change in design was permanent since Hartalega already bought the steel material thus no choice but to opt out. Last I heard they were on the way to complete 5&6 which is final completion for Sepang.
Before this, they were considering to refurbish old lines in old factory but even that was scrapped due to forecast lower demand. Personally I dont see a way how gloves would return to those days. The only expansion that you would see is probably from those smaller sized one like Careplus or VIP gloves.
Gloves are still very profitable no doubt, but why would you pay RM7 for Hartalega (example) when you are only getting less than 10cents back in dividends. Its recession proof but other than that, there's no reason to pay a premium for gloves counter when they are all trading at over 30x PER.
Very good insight. Agreed it is over priced now. Better to buy Maybank at get 5% dividends.