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 STOCK MARKET DISCUSSION V150

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zstan
post Apr 22 2020, 10:54 AM

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QUOTE(tehoice @ Apr 22 2020, 10:38 AM)
medical supplies companies diff la, harta etc also keep going up ma.

how about the MCO? do you think it will be extended again?
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very likely will extend. Even Singapore also know they are screwed and terus CB until June.
zstan
post Apr 22 2020, 12:48 PM

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more and more greens. discount over guys bye.gif


zstan
post Apr 22 2020, 03:48 PM

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QUOTE(skty @ Apr 22 2020, 12:52 PM)
The fact that you are posting this message mean it’s not time to buy yet. Hahaha
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it was the time to buy when i posted. now all climb back up again doh.gif
zstan
post Apr 28 2020, 02:39 PM

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QUOTE(andrekua2 @ Apr 28 2020, 02:19 PM)
It is kinda crazy to see the PER people are paying for their overpriced gloves stock.
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waiting for short selling to be back and hope for a price drop but looks like it won't happen lol
zstan
post Apr 28 2020, 03:37 PM

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QUOTE(andrekua2 @ Apr 28 2020, 02:46 PM)
At first I thought ok, consistent dividend but over the past 2-3 years, gloves stocks are moving nowhere. They just kept going up defying common sense. Hartalega will be around 70PER if they reported another 3.x cents for Q4.

We used to provide materials to contractors for the mechanical structures for some of them. They had slowdown quite a lot over the past few years due to over capacity and pricing wars. Even now with the pandemic, I dont think there will be shortages.
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more like FOMO. as long as the pandemic doesn't end glove stock prices should continue to rise. probably will take a hefty dividend pay out for the share price to drop as it would be the new normal with frequent PPE wearing now. with all the profit now they can always diversify to intensify nitrile gloves production and other forms of PPE. with the oil price crash, theoretically the ingredient price for synthetic rubbers should be much much lower which translates into higher profit margin.
zstan
post Apr 28 2020, 04:15 PM

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QUOTE(andrekua2 @ Apr 28 2020, 03:45 PM)
For nitrile gloves, the raw materials are bought in USD. Therefore the rise in USD should not affect profit margin.

As for natural rubber gloves, competitions are hot.
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more like the drop in crude oil will increase their profit margin.
zstan
post Apr 28 2020, 06:56 PM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Apr 28 2020, 04:33 PM)
No doubt for short term, the demand would be still strong.

But at the sametimes, there are many new gloves factories in the pipeline as well. Many companies have been expanding significantly over the years due to good growth and profit.

Eg. PPE like face mask, its production quantity also increased dramatically globally just within a month or two, we no longer see acute shortage like last month or so.
It is not like supply will be staying stagnant in quantity.

More people will wear face mask, which result more demand but supply also increase in tandem as well.

When an industry is in high demand, and good profit, many others also want to join in the bandwagon as well, not to mention competitors may be expanding rapidly as well.

Near to mid term, prospect still good for those industry, but do not carry away or over-hype.

PPE, healthcare equipment hype may easily a replicate of peak oil (or oil will be always in high demand) hype 12 years ago.
I could be wrong though.
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Well if they don't use their current profit to diversity then its really entirely their own undoing.

QUOTE(andrekua2 @ Apr 28 2020, 05:22 PM)
Actually there's no more expansion from glove sector. Some like Hartalega and Supermax are just doing what they have been planning for years, completing the big upgrade albeit very slowly. We did supply the parts for first 2 factories in Sepang in 2012 IIRC, then the new boss suddenly changed contractor due to some communication issue with my client. It was even more messy with the new contractor and the change in design was so bad that they couldn't keep factory 3&4 running full time. After tiptoe for a year or two, they went back to my client but damage already done. The change in design was permanent since Hartalega already bought the steel material thus no choice but to opt out. Last I heard they were on the way to complete 5&6 which is final completion for Sepang.

Before this, they were considering to refurbish old lines in old factory but even that was scrapped due to forecast lower demand. Personally I dont see a way how gloves would return to those days. The only expansion that you would see is probably from those smaller sized one like Careplus or VIP gloves.

Gloves are still very profitable no doubt, but why would you pay RM7 for Hartalega (example) when you are only getting less than 10cents back in dividends. Its recession proof but other than that, there's no reason to pay a premium for gloves counter when they are all trading at over 30x PER.
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Very good insight. Agreed it is over priced now. Better to buy Maybank at get 5% dividends.

zstan
post Apr 28 2020, 06:57 PM

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https://www.bharian.com.my/node/682771/amp

Meanwhile, will shares fly tomorrow?
zstan
post Apr 29 2020, 03:09 PM

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QUOTE(pisces88 @ Apr 28 2020, 10:54 PM)
will la. now is no logic trading. people buying on optimism  tongue.gif
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yup all fly again. it's like green for 4 days and red for 1 day lately
zstan
post Apr 30 2020, 11:40 AM

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well US stocks flying. oil price flying. ringgit flying. MAS stocks also flying. what fundamentals ladies and gentlemen?
zstan
post Apr 30 2020, 02:09 PM

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QUOTE(moosset @ Apr 30 2020, 01:37 PM)
so we are close to getting a vaccine now??

economy is expected to recover very soon? All countries ease their lockdown?

bear market over and recession is cancelled? rclxub.gif
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vaccine is nowhere near. more like when will international flights resume?
zstan
post Apr 30 2020, 08:37 PM

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Banks u turn on their hp Moratorium. Monday banks shares fly?
zstan
post May 1 2020, 11:47 AM

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Economy reopening.good bye discounts. You will be missed.
zstan
post May 4 2020, 09:37 AM

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queued maybank for 7.35 but it climbed back way to fast sad.gif
zstan
post May 4 2020, 10:38 AM

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QUOTE(whyseej00 @ May 4 2020, 10:35 AM)
See cut 25 or 50bps....

Hoping for 50bps
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later remain stocks terus fly
zstan
post May 5 2020, 02:56 PM

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5 more minutes to OPR rclxm9.gif
zstan
post May 5 2020, 03:03 PM

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50 basis points cut! let's see how the markets react
zstan
post May 5 2020, 04:24 PM

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QUOTE(ChAOoz @ May 5 2020, 03:24 PM)
Positive for capital investment, FDI and high debt load company, but the positive might be overshadow by a weak local and global consumer market.

Negative for banks. Reprieve for property sector. Weaker MYR.
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seems like the opposite happened laugh.gif ringgit gaining across the currencies and bank stocks all green. at least for today.
zstan
post May 8 2020, 03:27 PM

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QUOTE(Dackson @ May 8 2020, 02:45 PM)
more chaos the best, better second round of Covid, then all stock turn red red, pretty color ^^
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lol. wait till your loved ones kena covid then see you will still ^^ or not
zstan
post May 12 2020, 09:15 AM

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WTF topglove up 76 cents. what is this madness.

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