QUOTE(AVFAN @ Sep 12 2020, 01:43 PM)
for some who can't access:
Hmm, I could though. Maybe because when I opened it the article was fresh from the oven. Anyway thanks for highlighting it. Here's the full one...
QUOTE
IN a space of just 15 days Macquarie Research, a well-respected research outfit, has done something quite unexpected. It drastically changed its outlook on Top Glove Corporation Bhd, sparking a huge debate.
The debate wasnât just about the value of the major glove manufacturerâs stocks. The crux of the debate, in fact, was about the quality of research reports on the company and whether it is compromised by the interest of investment banks issuing structured warrants that are based on the stock.
Just recently, on Aug 24, Macquarie issued a report setting the 12-month target price for the Top Glove at RM30.40. Taking into account Top Gloveâs two-for-one bonus issue that took effect on Sept 4, the target price should be adjusted down to just above RM10.
However, last Wednesday, Macquarie downgraded Top Glove to RM5.40, more than 45% of the adjusted price post the bonus issue. In just 15 days, Macquaries changed its call on the stock from an out-perform to an under-perform.
The research house did state in its latest report that there was a change in the analyst covering the stock.
Nevertheless, how a research house can change its views so drastically in just two weeks is perplexing.
In justifying the downgrade, Macquarie said that while the growth in average selling prices (ASPs) of gloves remained strong at about 15% to 20%, the earnings of Top Glove will likely peak by the second half of next year and suggested that investors take profit when there is an upturn on the price.Top Glove is due to announce its results next week and the management is likely to state just the opposite.
The company is expected to exhort the view that ASPs are still strong and the trend is set to continue for the next one year or more.
To send a message that the stock is undervalued, Top Glove spent RM100mil on a single day last Thursday to buy back its shares.
Normally when a company embarks on a share buyback, it is a signal to the market that the stock is undervalued. However, there are instances when a share buyback exercise is misused.
In the case of Top Glove, the company is sitting on a huge pile of cash and has the muscle to embark on share buybacks. But whether it is a prudent move to spend so much money in a single day is questionable. The money could have been used to pay dividends or be put back into the business.
Coming back to Macquarieâs downgrade, it just goes to show once again that analyst reports are merely a guide and cannot be taken as the âholy grailâ to the future prices of stocks. Analysts need to churn out reports everyday and most of the time they take short-term views on the stock
Macquarie is not the only research house that has changed its views within a short period of time. Other research houses such as Maybank, CIMB and Ambank also have changed their views on certain stocks within a short period of time.
But for the glove sector, which has kept Bursa Malaysia alive for the past six months, Macquarieâs latest report is the only one with a contrarian view.
The jolt on Top Glove is another lesson for investors who should look at other factors when taking positions in highly charged stocks where there is a general euphoria on a theme play.
One of the things that should be looked at is whether there are structured warrants that are being issued based on the underlying stock. The rule of thumb is that when there are too many structured warrants being issued, the stock will see heavy price volatility.
It has happened in many stocks before and the same is happening with glove companies. Last year, investment banks issued so many structured warrants based on Hengyaun Refining Com Bhd to the extent that the stock saw severe volatility in its share price.
Top Glove has 33 structured warrants, of which 31 are call warrants while three are put warrants. Supermax Corp Bhd has 35 structured warrants, Hartalega Holdings Bhd has 36 structured warrants and Kossan Rubber Industries Bhd has 16 structured warrants.
The structured warrants are broken into two â a call warrant and a put warrant. The tenure is usually for six months.
A call warrant on a stock is a right to buy the stock at an agreed level in the future. It becomes highly profitable if the price rises beyond the level that has been fixed by the issuer, which is the investment bank.
A put warrant gives the buyers an option to sell the stock at a given price in the future. It is a useful hedge if the price of the stock falls sharply.
Investment banks issue structured warrants and their profitability is dependent on the price movement of the underlying stock.
Before issuing the structured warrant, the investment banks will buy some shares of the company from the market. For instance, before issuing the call warrants on Supermax, the investment bank would have bought some of the shares from the market in case it has to meet its obligations when the tenure of the warrant ends.
However, when the structured warrant is nearing expiry, the investment bank will tend to sell the underlying share. The selling comes in a big way to the extent it creates jitters.
This is to ensure that the structured warrant is âout of moneyâ, meaning the subscriber is unable to exercise his or her right as the share price is below the exercise price set by the issuer.
The investment bank makes money from selling the stocks in the market when the structured warrant is near maturity, a move that will depress prices of the stock. When prices are depressed due to heavy selling, the structured warrant becomes âout of moneyâ, meaning the holder of the warrant is unable to exercise his or her right.
Structured products such as call and put warrants are quite popular on Bursa Malaysia because they can be highly profitable if the investor gets in and out at the right time. But structured products have a long history of fanning speculation and volatility in stocks.
It has always been said that there is an iron curtain between the research house and the investment bank so that the information flow to market players is efficient.
But considering that investment banks have a vested interest in the share prices of stocks that are tied to structured products, should they be allowed to issue research reports on such stocks?
M Shanmugam is the former specialist editor of The Star. Views expressed here are his own.