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 STOCK MARKET DISCUSSION V150

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wayton
post Jul 27 2020, 04:26 PM

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Harta is moving.
wayton
post Jul 28 2020, 03:32 PM

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QUOTE(theberry @ Jul 28 2020, 03:27 PM)
Today TM is under Hong Leong recommend buy lol
Because of 5g

Btw TM is in red now
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I heard to implement 5G, lot of investment of new tower needed.

How is it good for telco?
wayton
post Jul 28 2020, 03:51 PM

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QUOTE(theberry @ Jul 28 2020, 03:45 PM)
implement on high density area, gov grant, more bandwidth and capacity, lower chrage, can attract foreign co to open data centre in Malaysia.

I just think only
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Telco make profit from monthly charges.

Lower charges, how to make more profit?
wayton
post Jul 28 2020, 04:40 PM

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Inari, this is better 5G play than telco.
wayton
post Jul 30 2020, 09:14 AM

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Opening so green for gloves, taught another good day, now face off, some turns red.
wayton
post Jul 30 2020, 09:17 AM

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QUOTE(ZeroSOFInfinity @ Jul 30 2020, 09:16 AM)
Which ones.
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Top 2 currently, red.

Opening time jump up so green.
wayton
post Aug 4 2020, 02:33 PM

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6.5 cents EPS, PE is 69 at 18.00
wayton
post Aug 4 2020, 03:04 PM

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TG turns green.

Harta also climbing.

Wow, so dramatic.
wayton
post Aug 5 2020, 10:16 AM

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Today online portal is not that smooth, suddenly got, suddenly whole screen not moving.
wayton
post Aug 5 2020, 02:56 PM

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QUOTE(HereToLearn @ Aug 5 2020, 02:48 PM)
Very true. But even with considering the growth metrics as an input into calculations, no rational value investors will buy as a long term investment.
E.g. for Harta: 39 billion to 44 billion pieces in 2022 (13% increase in sales, which can translate to 13% increase in revenue and earnings assuming ASP do not increase)
EPS 6.49 in a quarter
By 2022, EPS = 6.49*1.13*4= 29.3348 EPS (assuming insignificant share dilution by ESOS - lazy to include this)

By 2022, with RM20, PE = 68...

I cant take ASP into account because it is not predictable. But we can calculate what ASP is needed to reduce PE to a sensible level
PE 15: ASP required = 4.5 times the current already inflated ASP
PE 20: ASP required = 3.4 times the current already inflated ASP

Just sharing, please correct me if I am wrong, happy to learn and invest if somehow I calculated wrongly and it is actually undervalued

Heres an article on value vs growth investing. In the long run, what you really earn from investment will not be too different from the company's earnings that you invested.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/like-warr...ions-2020-08-03
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Once pandemic subside and with vaccine available, likely next year, then ASP may stop going up, and may go down, as everyone is on expansion mode.
Facemask already is example, how price going down fast, when supply become more. Facemask is easier to make, and very fast can produce, but gloves factory takes time to assemble.

Also, with so profitable now, everyone also want to join in this industry, which may result more supply in the future.

The worry is repeat of O&G stories, last time O&G also had lucrative profit across, then supply become more when everyone venture into it.

Gloves is good for trading for now until next year. Next year onwards, hard to guess.
wayton
post Aug 5 2020, 03:01 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Aug 5 2020, 02:57 PM)
if r talking bursa style goreng, goreng pisang also can fly.

u just wait then... maybe it will fly...when its turn come.

just remember goreng pisang becomes soft very quickly.
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Over goreng, hangus.
wayton
post Aug 7 2020, 11:30 AM

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QUOTE(Bendan520 @ Aug 7 2020, 11:27 AM)
July-Aug Glove rally over..

Now wait September/October Rally..
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Every month also rally one?

Like that, everyone is stock market is rich already.
wayton
post Aug 7 2020, 02:48 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Aug 7 2020, 02:46 PM)
u forgot... the bubble is 110! laugh.gif
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Last few weeks ago, there was a article of dream TP is Rm100.

Rm30 still cheap if can reach Rm100. rclxm9.gif
wayton
post Aug 7 2020, 03:17 PM

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QUOTE(bergstein @ Aug 7 2020, 03:16 PM)
lol goreng shift here shift there
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Now like buying lottery, see your counter hit the jackpot or not.
wayton
post Aug 11 2020, 09:10 AM

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Open high, and start going down, not good.
wayton
post Aug 11 2020, 09:26 AM

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QUOTE(jetzxp @ Aug 11 2020, 09:22 AM)
gold counter cabut or hold ? haha
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Gold counter is not as solid as glove.


wayton
post Aug 11 2020, 09:46 AM

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Glove is still good and hold on.

My worry post pandemic, when vaccine is available.
Although it may be a year time ahead.

If look at glove capacity expansion, it is scary, everyone ramp up and built new production line that can produce billion of gloves.

Never mind, at least now is good, can punt at least few months to next year.
wayton
post Aug 11 2020, 09:53 AM

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QUOTE(annoymous1234 @ Aug 11 2020, 09:48 AM)
even when vaccine is available, the frontliners still need to use glove to distribute the vaccine
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Gloves always got demand since long time ago. The issue is supply keep on ramping up, and look at the news that this company will install production line that can produce few billions pieces, another company will have new factory can produce another few billions.
There may also other new comers after seeing so profitable to produce glove.

Just like facemask, demand still there, but after supply ramp up, price going down.
When price going down, profit margin not as good already.
wayton
post Aug 11 2020, 02:48 PM

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QUOTE(theberry @ Aug 11 2020, 02:35 PM)
HL update so slow in the app

user posted image
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Fund selling, only retailers keep on buying?
wayton
post Aug 11 2020, 04:39 PM

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Tomei limit down.
Pohkong also fall heavy

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