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 STOCK MARKET DISCUSSION V150

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ChAOoz
post Mar 24 2020, 01:07 PM

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It is unlikely for epf to pull out so much money as per many has speculated, cause the RM500 is per person per month.

Its not 6k per person. If you do the math of rm500 / month x our working population with epf. Its not that much
ChAOoz
post Mar 24 2020, 10:50 PM

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6 month no cash flow and no interest profit. This is going to be blood bath for banking counters
ChAOoz
post Mar 25 2020, 08:59 AM

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Its all green today. Almost all major indexes are up. Lets see can it sustain or not
ChAOoz
post Mar 25 2020, 09:12 AM

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Did most of my buying on last wed.

So far not bad for one week, just gotta fight the urge to fear a falling knife.

When market is good, gotta fight the fear of fomo.
ChAOoz
post Mar 25 2020, 03:45 PM

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This morning the whispers were either extension or full lockdown. Guess you might be right on the price in.
ChAOoz
post Mar 26 2020, 12:42 PM

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Nikkei is diverging from the rest. Profit taking after the rally, japanese risk appetite not that high it seemed.
ChAOoz
post Mar 27 2020, 01:32 PM

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Have digested the amount of info flooding the market. For those that plan to invest, i feel you need to look into sector by sector. Airline, Travel and consumer luxury is expected to suffer awhile more and may not hit bottom yet. Bank may also have higher NPL risk.

While certain sector such as cloud, semicon, consumer electronics, biotech is actually a bargain now, cause based on yesterday micron earnings call they are actually benefiting from the stay at home movement while their stock is getting an undeserved beat down due to overall market fear.

I'm still positive about Malaysia Tech stock, especially those that track closely with large semicon and biotech such as Intel, Broadcom, Qualcomm, Apple, B.Braun, Boston etc. Those should be in good position to benefit from a quick rebound
ChAOoz
post Mar 27 2020, 01:44 PM

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QUOTE(kkk8787 @ Mar 27 2020, 01:36 PM)
do u think there will be another small drop soon? lower than the previous low point before rebound
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I don't track biotech stock too much. But for semicon / tech, if there are more positive earning calls from the big one such as AMD, Intels, Nvidia, Microsoft, Cisco, Broadcom, Apple the smaller the window of opportunity will become.

You can hope that Micron is just an exceptional one and the rest reported bad news, that would break the market confidence and we could test new low.

Else currently all data is pointing to higher data center consumption, higher cloud services, higher gaming device purchases, higher mobile / youtube engagement, higher tech peripherals usage during a world on lockdown and work from home movement.
ChAOoz
post Mar 27 2020, 01:59 PM

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QUOTE(thesnake @ Mar 27 2020, 01:53 PM)
what do you guys think of carlsberg and heineken?
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Beverage/entertainment. With lockdown and closing of social F&B outlet definitely not good for them.

But if they are cheap now you can consider. But i feel if the virus drag on longer, they might have further lows.
ChAOoz
post Mar 27 2020, 03:56 PM

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So many country including Malaysia are using helicopter money.

I predict there is going to be asset price inflation again. Debt based economy is unstoppable, wealth gap will be bigger now after this crisis is over.
ChAOoz
post Mar 30 2020, 09:02 AM

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Definitely down. Just how down lol, probably bear trap for many fomo people. I hope they dont leverage thinking to rake in millions
ChAOoz
post Mar 31 2020, 08:54 AM

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Its a green green day today. Rally hope is back as people ignore virus pessimism.
ChAOoz
post Mar 31 2020, 07:32 PM

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QUOTE(MasterConfucion @ Mar 31 2020, 10:22 AM)
Is there no side effect of this unlimited money? Otherwise they can keep the market forever up just doing this same trick
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The side effect is the wealth gap. If every country is doing expansionary monetary policy, it will make the gap between the haves and have not even wider.
ChAOoz
post Mar 31 2020, 07:38 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Mar 31 2020, 05:00 PM)
In the short term, the market is on random walk.
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The market is not on random walk. When QE was first introduce it was very novel, people don't know what to make of it.

Last time it was all about interest rate as a main controller, but QE broke the system. Now people know what QE does, thats why they are buying based on the hope that history would repeat itself but now its the whole world on steroids. This debt based, 0 interest rate economy is the new normal.
ChAOoz
post Apr 2 2020, 09:53 AM

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Has klci found its bottom ? Its red everywhere but we are green.
ChAOoz
post Apr 2 2020, 03:30 PM

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QUOTE(kkk8787 @ Apr 2 2020, 03:12 PM)
do we track that closely? example say one day we are at recovery phase of virus whereas US totally out of control daily 10k deaths , Dow Jones crashes, KLSE will still drop?
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If bursa has really found a bottom, it won't crash. Might go lower by a few percentage point but no big crash.

ChAOoz
post Apr 2 2020, 07:17 PM

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QUOTE(ChAOoz @ Mar 18 2020, 08:57 PM)
Looking at a range of tech stock that track more closely to external market rather than local.

Currently in radar after heavy discount is Penta, uwc and greatech.

I'm expecting the 1k usd per person budget by US to be approved. Once that is done, consumer electronics /semicon related counter should snap back to growth pretty fast.
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QUOTE(ChAOoz @ Mar 25 2020, 09:12 AM)
Did most of my buying on last wed.

So far not bad for one week, just gotta fight the urge to fear a falling knife.

When market is good, gotta fight the fear of fomo.
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Not bad so far. Save me 2 - 3 years of investing time based on current result. Not life changing either tho like some said.

For my balance cash, i'm looking onto US tech now. I feel US still have more to reach bottom.
ChAOoz
post Apr 6 2020, 06:59 PM

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QUOTE(Bendan520 @ Apr 6 2020, 03:20 PM)
Maybe everyone is busy trading and reaping profits haha  biggrin.gif
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Spending some time reading back old dot com and 08 crisis stock performance.

Lesson is some stock fall and go into chapter 11, some fall but come out higher during the crisis, some fall by abit during the crisis.

In the end don't lose money. How much you earn, if your company goes to 0 means nothing. Capital perseverance still more important in long run.
ChAOoz
post Apr 7 2020, 08:01 AM

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QUOTE(MasterConfucion @ Apr 6 2020, 07:44 PM)
what r the type of stock that go chapter 11 and whT type go higher? or is it random?
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The standard signal that end up chapter 11 - growth stock with bad business model. Not profitable business that is burning cash with high growth. Those are sexy during good time but usually end up burning investors money.

Type that go higher - positive free cash flow company that still have growth during crisis.
ChAOoz
post Apr 7 2020, 05:22 PM

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QUOTE(duckaton @ Apr 7 2020, 03:21 PM)
Many in this category that is also rallying... mega_shok.gif
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Fundamentally strong companies may test new lows during initial panic and fear. Once they recover it will be a gradual road up.

Whereas weak one may rebound together with good company, but they will continually test new lows until the market is bullish again. This is what many call a bear trap.

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