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 STOCK MARKET DISCUSSION V150

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Vanguard 2015
post Jun 3 2020, 01:57 PM

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QUOTE(zz287963 @ Jun 3 2020, 01:52 PM)
Too bad I entered a bit late, missed out the ex-date for Maybank 39sen dividend
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Don't worry about it, my friend.

There will be many, many other stocks to invest or fry in the future. bruce.gif
Vanguard 2015
post Jun 3 2020, 02:15 PM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Jun 3 2020, 02:10 PM)
Bank stocks won't shoot to the roof like glove, it is more a rebound from bottom, and likely to stay in range bound after recent surge.

NPL, reduce NIM due to OPR cut, slow loan growth are typical factors that put a ceiling on banking stocks how high they can go.
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Thanks for the insight Cherroy.

Right now, I am just happy to recoup my losses from the bank stocks. I will continue to monitor them this week before making a final decision whether to sell. thumbup.gif
Vanguard 2015
post Jun 3 2020, 03:17 PM

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Glove stocks is only meant for hit and run. I believe everybody knows this. It is a musical chair game. When the music ends, make sure you have a chair to sit. So, has the music ended?

Let's look at their valuation and fundamental.

Comfort 0.7/1.4
Harta 0.5/2.6
Kossan 0.5/1.7
Ruberex 0.3/1.8
Supermax 0.4/1.3
Top Glove 0.5/1.7
Luxchem 1.1/2.4
Careplus 0/0.2
Adventa 0.9/1.7

So, will you buy glove stocks again when they bottom out and rebound? Only you can answer that. Do you feel lucky? smile.gif

This post has been edited by Vanguard 2015: Jun 3 2020, 03:19 PM
Vanguard 2015
post Jun 3 2020, 03:49 PM

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QUOTE(Pewufod @ Jun 3 2020, 03:18 PM)
what are those figures ?
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These are the general figures showing the estimated valuation and fundamental of the stocks. There was an error in my original post which I have corrected.

The higher the figure the better.

For e.g. if stock A has a valuation of 0.5, this means that it is already over priced and there is no margin of safety. If the fundamental is for e.g. 2.6, then generally the company is financially sound.

Of course, this is not an exact science but merely a rough guide. Otherwise, I would be very, very rich by now.
Vanguard 2015
post Jun 3 2020, 06:08 PM

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QUOTE(Pewufod @ Jun 3 2020, 03:57 PM)
ah i see
thats interested

Careplus      0/0.2

so this means careplus has no fundamental but has valuation ?
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Err no. I just simplified it. Please refer back to my amended post. I mistakenly put the two categories of valuation and fundamental in reverse.

To avoid confusion, just forget about it and let's start afresh.

For the valuation and fundamental score of any stock, the maximum score is 3. The higher the better.

So if Stock A has a Valuation score of 3/3 and a Fundamental score of 3/3, in theory, you have a winner!

For Careplus, the Valuation score is 0/3 while the Fundamental score is 0.2/3.

Therefore, Careplus is strictly a goreng stock with absolutely no margin of safety since the valuation is zero. Perhaps that explains why it can tumble -23% today.

But I repeat, this is not an exact science.

P/S: The confusion caused by my original post is that I combined both the valuation and fundamental together without explaining that it should have read 0/3 and 0.2/3. My bad.
Vanguard 2015
post Jun 3 2020, 08:46 PM

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Yes, guys. I have a paid subscription in Absolutely Stocks for a few years now. The fundamental and valuation score were obtained from there.

It is not a magic bullet which will guarantee you a win every time. It just helps you to narrow the odds. It’s like playing blackjack at the casino.

Recently I also subscribed to Simply Wall Street. I think it was introduced to the forumers here courtesy of Cubalagi.

Those who know me in this forum from a few years ago like Lowya will know that I do share info and knowledge whenever possible.

This include the shares that I am holding. If you make money, I am happy for you. But please don’t curse me if you lose money. 🙏

Vanguard 2015
post Jun 3 2020, 09:06 PM

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QUOTE(AsTiGaTe @ Jun 3 2020, 08:50 PM)
thank you for sharing Vanguard.  biggrin.gif
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You are welcome, bro.

QUOTE(Pewufod @ Jun 3 2020, 08:57 PM)
are there any other similar sites like A.Stocks that supports domestic market ?
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Perhaps you can start with Bursa Malaysia Plc. It offers some good insights and target price for Malaysian stocks for FREE. Just open the free account.

I am surprised that nobody seems to have recommended this site in this forum.
Vanguard 2015
post Jun 3 2020, 09:44 PM

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QUOTE(Acoen @ Jun 3 2020, 09:08 PM)
Thanks for the info..

I will remember this = Do your own research 😀
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Yes, please do not trust any sifus 100%. They are only human and prone to errors and their own bias.

The worst are the paid analysts and the gurus offering trading classes for a few thousand RM. if the gurus are so great, why don’t they just remortgage all their properties and quietly earn millions for themselves?

I have yet to meet any guru traders who would openly show their trading account for the past 5 to 10 years to show their ‘successful’ track record. Have you?

QUOTE(Pewufod @ Jun 3 2020, 09:32 PM)
im actually looking for paid subscription service providers that do their own research

best if they have a package listed on their website

absolutely stocks is very good in terms of their transparency in pricing
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In terms of value for money, I think Simply Wall Street is better. It covers the stock markets worldwide while Absolutely Stocks only covers the Malaysia and Singapore stock markets.

Vanguard 2015
post Jun 3 2020, 10:23 PM

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QUOTE(Pewufod @ Jun 3 2020, 10:05 PM)
again i must thank you so much for your generosity
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No problem buddy.

Knowledge is meant to be shared. No point taking it to the grave. The same goes for money...
Vanguard 2015
post Jun 3 2020, 10:59 PM

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QUOTE(zz287963 @ Jun 3 2020, 10:30 PM)
Thank you for this!
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You are most welcome.
Vanguard 2015
post Jun 4 2020, 10:56 AM

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Here we go again. The glove stocks rally again. Strap in your seat belts ladies and gentlemen.
Vanguard 2015
post Jun 4 2020, 11:04 AM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Jun 4 2020, 11:00 AM)
Those were on sidelines and new joiners will jump in to push to new high.
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I assume the margin traders holding glove stocks suffered these 2 days.

I am just in and out for a quick kill on a few glove counters today. Be back soon.
Vanguard 2015
post Jun 4 2020, 11:11 AM

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QUOTE(lowya @ Jun 3 2020, 05:17 PM)
bro can check ARBB, TMCLIFE and KIPREIT?
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It's like the old TV show, "Because You Asked For It". Here you go, buddy.

ARBB Valuation 2.1/3 Fundamental 1.95/3
TMCLIFE Valuation 0.8/3 Fundamental 2.25/3
KIP REIT Valuation 3/3 Fundamental 0.75/3
Vanguard 2015
post Jun 4 2020, 11:20 AM

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Fresh from the oven yesterday. Let's all learn together.


https://www.malaymail.com/news/money/2020/0...vestors/1872124


Vanguard 2015
post Jun 4 2020, 02:41 PM

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I just sold off all my stocks in Public Bank this morning for a small profit.

Now monitoring my crazy gains in Adventa, Careplus, Comfort, Ruberex and Supermax which I bought this morning.

I have to keep reminding myself that this is nothing to do with my trading skills which is zero. I am not a chartist. It is just that the market has gone crazy.
Vanguard 2015
post Jun 4 2020, 02:50 PM

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QUOTE(moosset @ Jun 4 2020, 02:45 PM)
all PBB? Why?
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I have sold off most of all my stocks in my portfolio progressively.

There is nothing wrong with PBB. It is a blue chip stock.

But I would prefer to see how our economy performs in 3-6 months time. Especially with the lifting of the moratorium for housing loans and hire purchase loans in September, I believe. Would it affect the dividend payment of the banks in the future if the NPL start going up?

Vanguard 2015
post Jun 4 2020, 03:13 PM

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QUOTE(silverwave @ Jun 4 2020, 03:03 PM)
What time in the morning do you usually buy these stocks? Or you queue it the previous night?
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No, never. I usually follow the uptrend and volume in the morning.

For e.g., let's say Careplus up +7% in the morning with a lot of buyers queuing up with high volume. I will pump in the first batch, say about RM16K for 12,500 shares. Up another +5%, I pump in another RM16K and so on.

The professional traders will probably laugh at their head off at this method. But I never claimed to be a trader or an expert.

I will be burned if the trend suddenly reverse later in the day. But touch wood, so far Lady Luck took pity on me.

Note : This is a variation of the Darvas Box Theory.

This post has been edited by Vanguard 2015: Jun 4 2020, 03:16 PM
Vanguard 2015
post Jun 4 2020, 04:07 PM

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QUOTE(annoymous1234 @ Jun 4 2020, 03:22 PM)
means in the morning, u see if its' going up, u will buy?
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That is one of the factors but it is not that simple. Otherwise, everyone here will become instant millionaires. tongue.gif

If you have the chance, I suggest you get hold of the classic book written in 1960 by Darvas entitled, "How I Made $2 Million in the Stock Market." You can also google the "Darvas Box Theory".

He analysed for e.g. the volume, momentum and whether the stock is in an industry which is expected to outperform the overall market.

But I must stress again, I am just a beginner. I am just sharing whatever little knowledge I have. Therefore, please take whatever I say with a pinch or bucket of salt.

P/S : In one of my earlier posts, I did recommend a list of books on trading.

QUOTE(silverwave @ Jun 4 2020, 03:25 PM)
Well, as long you're happy with the profits made, it doesn't matter what anyone says. Too many self claimed experts out there nowadays and i just don't find it convincing enough.  biggrin.gif

Thanks for the tip!
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At the end of the day, if we trade often enough, Mr Market will eat us alive. sweat.gif

The free lunch cannot last forever.

QUOTE(theberry @ Jun 4 2020, 03:29 PM)
U bump In by best buy or queue lower? Just wondering
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Sometimes, I don't even bother to queue at the best buy price. If the stock has momentum and price is changing by the minute, I will even queue on the best sell price.
Vanguard 2015
post Jun 4 2020, 04:28 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Jun 4 2020, 04:23 PM)
When the market is frenzy, almost every investors are making $$$. however, the last person who hold the ticket will bare the downfall.
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100% true. It has nothing to do with trading skills or the fundamental of the stocks anymore.

That's why I only trade with money that I can afford to lose. I don't do margin trading.

The party will end at some point but nobody knows when.




Vanguard 2015
post Jun 4 2020, 04:31 PM

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Sold off all my stocks in Ruberex and Adventa.

Sold off 1/2 my stocks in Careplus and Comfort. Continue holding Supermax.

Took 1/2 the profit off the table.

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