Sometimes To Do Nothing At All, Is The Most Difficult Thing In The World

I would like to admit that 2021 is a much harder year to invest compared to 2020. The market are choppy and volatile, underlying current in the market does not point towards a clear signal and there is no doubt a sense of uncertainty. It would appear the conviction towards a "pure recovery play" isn't as straight forward as it may be compared to what was projected by research houses at the end of 2020 & the start of 2021. I believe once again this has a lot to do with the economic policies in place and political uncertainty.

Before I make an investment decision, usually I start outwards then move inwards. I look at the macroeconomic indicators or signal before zooming into the sector or particular company. I do not believe in "Random Walk Theory". This is where the struggle happens when there is no clear picture. In addition, if there is a polarising view in the market between two forces (bull or bear) especially in almost equal weightage, then it would definitely result in the kind of market we are observing today.

Generally the major conflicting view in the market today is as the following :

1. Strong Recovery / Reopening play vs prolonged recovery / reopening
2. Growth vs Value
3. Commodities supercycle vs short term squeeze
4. Strong Dollar vs Weak Dollar

This results in a choppy and volatile market until a majority takes a view in the same direction whether down or up. Taking wisdom from Oscar Wilde, sometimes as investors, the best thing and hardest thing to do is not to do anything. By not acting, and merely observing, you can wait for a clearer picture and better opportunity to come along. You may miss some upside but you protect your downside. This is also applicable to when you are holding a wonderful company but the share price is dropping irrationally through no fault of anyone. Holding and doing nothing is also the right thing to do. To give an example, I have huge confidence in Hartalega but glove stocks sentiment have been weak of late whether rational or otherwise. If I am looking at the share price daily, I may be tempted to either buy more, average down or to cut loss. However, should I decide to not act, it may be the best decision as I would not need to be concern for additional price weakness and any upwards movement, I already stand to benefit. Of course, if you are confident and have spare cash in hand, any price weakness would be a good opportunity provided you believe in your investment thesis.

What I am sharing is my view towards an overall investment approach in a market that is directionless. There is no need to be eager to transact and make an investment decision every single day. Surely, this point of view is not shared by brokerage houses or banks as it would mean lesser transaction fees or income. This is the beauty of being a small retail investor. You get to choose your investment opportunities as and when you see fit with no external pressures such as being a fund manager that is required to deliver returns to clients every quarter. Do not forget the advantage of being a small retail investor.

Source : www.tradeview.my

This is for INVESTMENT read.

Key words that I always been stressing in my previous posts:
1) macroeconomy is the most important to look at before look into the sector and company.
2) there is NO random walk theory. That book is !@$!%$^ to me.
3) investing is you need to have the ABILITY and CRITERIA before you can do investing. DO NOT APPLY FUNDAMENTAL IN TRADING AND HOPE FOR RESULT.

I am not arrogant but I have certain standard and I don't simply think anyone is good. This guy has standard in investing.

I have the advantage of CA than most investors out there so I know what is coming. This is the reason why I don't INVEST at this point of time. I do TRADING.

This post has been edited by skty: Apr 7 2021, 11:50 AM

updated with my view but my view is not important.

your view is more important because it will control your behavior and actions.

today is a good day. majority of my holdings go to another support level.

becareful with Russia VS Ukraine.

people tend to forget your advise earlier.

well done.

no love for 3.5?

you got bullet now. no love to collect at 3.5?

today BURSA RM4.89bil transactions. Long time no see such amount already.

One last push.

Actually I feel fear when I see gloves spike.

Maybe it’s better for me to gradually reduce all my holdings and stay in the sideline from Bursa.

https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy...409-p57hp3.html

This author has standard in his/her macroeconomy knowledge and experience compare to 90% of analysts/bankers in the world.

This is all I am talking about all these time. Whether continue to have COVID-19 or not, it makes no difference. Majority people believe government’s painting of happy ending when vaccines are discovered. How naive.

One thing that I don’t agree is the critical interest should not be less than 3%. Let’s see Powell’s bullshit can last how long.

wa... kudos to KGB holders...

time tested again and again.

how far can it go? I holding the ticket to watch the show.



today some of my green in my portfolio is washed off. Some turned to red.

weekend penny stock news give them chance to do washing machine. I saw many people start cutting loss. Get frighten by the magnitude of washing.

Finally sold and clear all SMRT after 4 weeks of holding...

Doesn't reach my TP yet but I clear first with acceptable profit.

Shift focus to Raya stock.

Tomorrow is the 2nd last day for one of my penny stock to move. If still no move, need to sell back at cost price back to the operator...

1) 0.140 at support...

2) 10%...

3) potential to spike during raya...

4) got invisible hand behind. cornered. next few days got chance... I saw some collection on 22-23 March, 31 March and today. Thank you. I will observe this stock.

This post has been edited by skty: Apr 13 2021, 05:02 PM

haha... cannot say la...

this kind of situation, if the operator sense more people getting on the truck, they will just park there few more months...

lucky today manage to get matched my buy queue for one hari raya stock.

been queuing for few days already.

morning matched. Afternoon operator already start pushing....

another hari raya stock last week bought. today suddenly gap up. Then selling pressure come in where all previous trapped retailers selling when breakeven.

market going crazy soon...

This post has been edited by skty: Apr 14 2021, 04:44 PM

I am still holding.

some trapped souls have free themselves today.


bunch of rubbish stocks. better don't touch if don't want to burn hands.

you see how glove rally last week, you know the doom day is near.

hari raya.


looking at PE mean you guys are doing value investing?

if yes, then shouldn't touch KGB.


sorry for that but everyone eventually will have to go through the process of buy high and sell low for experience.

the reason you buy must also be the reason you sell, cannot change no matter in investing or trading. From your action, I can't figure out what's your reason that you bought KGB.

doom day today!

lucky I anticipated it when I saw glove surge last week and start clearing my holdings.

too bad can't clear all in time.

I see glove sentiment is back. People are talking about gloves again.

the story repeat again. Never change. No matter what.

what is BBB UUU?

thank you!

start clearing since 9 Apr. Mostly rubbish stocks.

start going into gold related counters with the funds.

You moved forward one step to an improved version of yourself.

Never afraid to CL after you made a mistake to buy a stock at a price that is good for trading but not investing.

Trading is doing everything opposite of investing. Don't mix it up again.

Few years later when you look back, those money lost are negligible compare to the money that you have earned.