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 STOCK MARKET DISCUSSION V150

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tehoice
post Jan 13 2021, 10:44 AM

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QUOTE(statikinetic @ Jan 13 2021, 10:41 AM)
Made 2 purchases.
The darurat helped to negate the risk of a political disaster, so there should be confidence in the short term.
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Cool. which 2 stocks? i only bought one...

i topped up Master only.... at 1.80 yesterday.... shud have bought more. damnit.
tehoice
post Jan 21 2021, 10:52 AM

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QUOTE(Duckies @ Jan 21 2021, 10:50 AM)
Eh bro, can explain to me how PP can dilute EPS ya?
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same pie but divided to share with more people now.

so your share of pie gets smaller. right.
tehoice
post Jan 25 2021, 05:29 PM

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QUOTE(SGSuser @ Jan 25 2021, 05:25 PM)
wew my TAANN laosai liao

thinking of wanna AD or just let it be
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ADDDD

cos it's gonna be BBBUUU soon also.

but on the serious note, if its fundamental hasn't change, why not take this chance to average down your cost?
tehoice
post Jan 27 2021, 10:25 AM

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QUOTE(HereToLearn @ Jan 27 2021, 10:03 AM)
Why these 2 are the safer bets for banks IMO?
Ambank
Projected PE as of current share price of 3.18 is 7.18 in FY2021 and 7.19 in FY2022 (no data for FY2023 yet, expecting increase with economy expansion later)
5y Historical PE range is 7.95 - 10.62. Your safety margin is HUGE in terms of FA.

RHB
Projected PE as of current share price of 5.27 is 9.31 in FY2021 and 8.21 in FY2022 (no data for FY2023 yet, expecting increase with economy expansion later)
5y Historical PE range is 7.5 - 10.5. It is one of the lower PE bank counters for KLCI if one only have the guts to buy KLCI stock, this is one of the better pick.
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realise you like to use PE methodology for banks.
which the more commonly used methodology for banks would be PB ratio instead.

it is a different ball game when it comes to valuing a bank vs a conventional retail business.
tehoice
post Jan 27 2021, 11:01 AM

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QUOTE(HereToLearn @ Jan 27 2021, 10:30 AM)
Yes I agree with you that majority measures using PB

PB is at historical low already, if measured by PB, it will be super super cheap - then almost all banks will have significant safety margin except pbb. So I use PE instead.

Want high ROE, then PBB, MBB, BIMB
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as an investment banker who specialise in M&A, if i use PE to justify my purchase, i will be fired on the spot by my boss.....
tehoice
post Jan 27 2021, 11:24 AM

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QUOTE(HereToLearn @ Jan 27 2021, 11:11 AM)
Opps my bad,

if PB, one could go for AMBANK, CIMB, MBSB, AFFIN, ABMB.

MBSB and AFFIN's ROEs are ridiculously low.

I think AMBANK and ABMB offer quite a nice balance for PB (low), PE (low) and ROE (low - ideally higher better). Thoughts? Happy to learn from IB
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actually you are not wrong, in fact, very good for a starter to be honest.

methodologies you used, depends on the nature of the business.

but a yardstick for us is that, we normally use EV/EBITDA, multiple of EBITDA, quality of earnings, cash flows, EBIT, EBIDA, PBT etc etc.

we normally build a financial model of the business of our own, creating a DCF, LBO model etc, depending on what we're doing, all the way until proforma cash flow statement, profit and loss as well as balance sheet.

from there, we will also have comparable companies analysis, what we call COMPS, scope of the comps depends on which exchange it is listed, availability of their info, relevance of their business vs ours (our client), how far are they trading. we typically do 2 COMPS or comparable companies analysis (CCA), trading comps and peers (typically non-listed too) to get a full picture of the industry. again, these COMPS are to compare the financial metrics and other factors to quantify performance or determine valuation.

Highly suggest you read the following:

VALUATION: ART, SCIENCE OR MAGIC? by Damodaran
http://people.stern.nyu.edu/adamodar/pdfil...ayDubai2017.pdf

Added his seminar before, really an eye opener for me.


tehoice
post Jan 27 2021, 11:26 AM

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QUOTE(tehoice @ Jan 27 2021, 11:24 AM)
actually you are not wrong, in fact, very good for a starter to be honest.

methodologies you used, depends on the nature of the business.

but a yardstick for us is that, we normally use EV/EBITDA, multiple of EBITDA, quality of earnings, cash flows, EBIT, EBIDA, PBT etc etc.

we normally build a financial model of the business of our own, creating a DCF, LBO model etc, depending on what we're doing, all the way until proforma cash flow statement, profit and loss as well as balance sheet.

from there, we will also have comparable companies analysis, what we call COMPS, scope of the comps depends on which exchange it is listed, availability of their info, relevance of their business vs ours (our client), how far are they trading. we typically do 2 COMPS or comparable companies analysis (CCA), trading comps and peers (typically non-listed too) to get a full picture of the industry. again, these COMPS are to compare the financial metrics and other factors to quantify performance or determine valuation.

Highly suggest you read the following:

VALUATION: ART, SCIENCE OR MAGIC? by Damodaran
http://people.stern.nyu.edu/adamodar/pdfil...ayDubai2017.pdf

Added his seminar before, really an eye opener for me.
*
oh ya, not to forget, when we examine the quality of earnings, we look at line by line, substracting extraordinary earnings, we see from all angles, including one off gain/loss, anything that's not normal, tax planning etc. we then normalise the profit thereon.
tehoice
post Feb 2 2021, 05:23 PM

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QUOTE(chocomatte @ Feb 2 2021, 05:22 PM)
glove everytime up 1~2 days then down.. let's see tomorrow show will break this trend ma
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where got things up up up everyday one?
tehoice
post Feb 8 2021, 02:46 PM

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QUOTE(zstan @ Feb 8 2021, 02:41 PM)
i see a lot of DCA popping out. Come join me at Stashaway!!! rclxm9.gif
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whoa.... time to recruit with your referral code.
tehoice
post Feb 9 2021, 03:31 PM

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QUOTE(joeblow @ Feb 9 2021, 03:24 PM)
This market is strange.

Genting Malaysia is up for 2 days, despite it being closed down until 18th Feb, CNY rush no more. Not sure what's the catch here. TM also up 3% plus, not sure for why. 5G news or just plain stable cash cow? I guess people complain about electricity bill but not broadband. Our broadband still remains one of the slowest and most expensive in the region.
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Has our market ever been rational?
tehoice
post Feb 9 2021, 04:55 PM

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QUOTE(Vanguard 2015 @ Feb 9 2021, 04:53 PM)
Please don't follow my tipsy blindly, nanti follow me to Holland.  sweat.gif

Everyone's risk appetite is different....I assume that the forumers here are trading with spare cash....  thumbup.gif
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some trading with their money to buy the next meal.
tehoice
post Feb 17 2021, 12:32 PM

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QUOTE(ChAOoz @ Feb 17 2021, 12:10 PM)
Your broker must love you. Have you count before your profit vs their charges.

I'm quite interested to see the ratio.
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agree with the costs coming along during purchase / sale of shares.

just make sure you use one of the most competitive ones, then you should be fine.

what's more important is if you are able to make nice handsome profits, then these fees are pretty minimal.

but again, it adds up to a substantial amount without you knowing.
tehoice
post Feb 18 2021, 11:30 AM

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QUOTE(Bendan520 @ Feb 18 2021, 10:24 AM)
Majority of my portfolio all in deep red cause I am holding semicons/tech most..

Back then only gloves gave me this kind of blood red paper loss..

doh.gif
-10k already.
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% wise?
tehoice
post Feb 18 2021, 01:22 PM

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QUOTE(Bendan520 @ Feb 18 2021, 12:46 PM)
10%.. already over exposed..

I usually follow 5% rule, but this time the counters involved, I've been eyeing to buy it for months already.
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then should always be ready to cut loss already....
tehoice
post Feb 18 2021, 03:22 PM

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QUOTE(Bendan520 @ Feb 18 2021, 03:13 PM)
I have a confusing question I would like to ask,

by lots do we mean

1 lot = 100 units of shares
or
1 lot = 1000 units of shares
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nowadays 1 board lot means 100 shares.

same as SG as well
but in HK, it varies.
tehoice
post Feb 19 2021, 12:27 PM

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QUOTE(Vanguard 2015 @ Feb 19 2021, 12:25 PM)
Based on fundamental, Supermax is good. But based on TA, not good. Still going downhill. This applies for all the glove stocks.

Do you plan to invest long term? If so, this is not the counter for that purpose.

For trading, maybe. But need to time the entry.

I usually go into the glove stocks for a quick kill only nowadays.
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my rule of thumb is, do not go against the mega trend......
tehoice
post Feb 19 2021, 12:34 PM

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QUOTE(Vanguard 2015 @ Feb 19 2021, 12:31 PM)
Please give me some  tipsy...what is the mega trend now?  tongue.gif

Semi conductor and tech stocks?
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hahaha, you're much more experience lah.

we can't teach the duck how to swim, they knew it already.

just that, vaccines are coming, economy is slowly opening up, travel industry will be revived, global recovery seems to be on the cards.

Yes, we can't deny that we will still need to use gloves for various reason, but the trend isnt say so. so my argument is just don't fight against this kind of trend, not going to do us any good.
tehoice
post Feb 19 2021, 05:53 PM

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QUOTE(lauwenhan @ Feb 19 2021, 05:47 PM)
icemanfx gone already? Our biggest bear of the forum. Market is going to crash?
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lol.

what's with you guys?
tehoice
post Feb 22 2021, 06:04 PM

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QUOTE(SGSuser @ Feb 22 2021, 06:00 PM)
Kpower very good QR

will market sell hmm
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buy on rumours sell on news. familiar? tongue.gif
tehoice
post Feb 23 2021, 03:48 PM

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QUOTE(pinksapphire @ Feb 23 2021, 03:40 PM)
Can I have some advice on the anticipated bottoming of Smax?
Thanks.
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such as?


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