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 STOCK MARKET DISCUSSION V150

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abcn1n
post Oct 30 2020, 04:36 PM

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QUOTE(Vanguard 2015 @ Oct 30 2020, 04:34 PM)
I went a bit crazy.

1.  Tenaga
2.  Public Bank
3.  Careplus
4.  Vstecs
5.  Esceram
6.  Magni
7.  Luxchem
8.  Inari
9.  JHM
10.  Liihen
11.  Latitud
12.  Homeriz
13.  Samchem
14.  Jaycorp
15.  Hevea

I kid you not.

Edited : I also entered the Big 4 on Wednesday, I think, before closing.
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Looks like your Christmas shopping came early
abcn1n
post Nov 19 2020, 09:38 PM

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QUOTE(ChAOoz @ Nov 19 2020, 06:35 PM)
Today is solar hours. Many might have bought in and waited for this.

The leader of the pack i still feel is Solarvest  wub.gif

They still got many catalyst lining up, the nearest will be the transfer to main board. Apart from that upcoming QR will also show improvement.
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When stocks list on main board from ace, do you think price will surge up or will it drop due to profit taking?
abcn1n
post Nov 19 2020, 10:37 PM

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QUOTE(ChAOoz @ Nov 19 2020, 09:49 PM)
It really depends.

Usually an ace to main board transfer would meant that their market cap has gone up which is also implying their business is growing. If majority holder is confident and not take profit, this extra publicity will attract more demand for the stock bringing it up.

In the end its very reliant on how confident the holders are. Also in solarvest case, you can see there is a private placement scheme and esos activities lately. So this is really a coordinated goreng ya.

Btw beneficiary of this: chinhin (5273). Lookout for its movement, there will be activities going on in this as well.
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Thanks.
abcn1n
post Nov 26 2020, 12:48 AM

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QUOTE(Vanguard 2015 @ Nov 25 2020, 06:38 PM)
Don't worry about windfall tax. Worry about this instead. This will affect our pockets directly.  tongue.gif



IRB CEO: Govt should consider introducing capital gains tax ...




"In an effort to broaden the tax base and increase revenue, so that Malaysia can be on par with other countries in the region, the government may or should consider introducing the capital gains tax in the future," he said at the Deloitte TaxMax 2020 webinar in response to a question about taxation on income from the stock market.


https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/irb-...pital-gains-tax
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Bursa going to be dead like this. Ultimately even less tax collected.

If capital gains tax introduced, will we also be taxed for overseas stocks (if we don't repatriate the money back)?
abcn1n
post Nov 26 2020, 12:25 PM

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QUOTE(Vanguard 2015 @ Nov 26 2020, 01:11 AM)
I am not sure about this.

I was told that capital gains tax for income derived from stocks applies for countries like US, UK and Australia.

But Bursa is already half dead now. Our market is too small and not suitable now to introduce this type of tax.
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Thanks. Hopefully no tax. Taxing on this will affect rakyat also due to EPF, KWSP, ABSN invest in bursa. If need tax, should tax on luxury items like expensive watches, bags, cars. These are for the ultra rich.
abcn1n
post Nov 26 2020, 04:32 PM

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QUOTE(Vanguard 2015 @ Nov 26 2020, 02:22 PM)
Don't worry about it. It will not happen in the short run.

Taxing income received from shares  involve amending the Income Tax Act. It has to be passed through Parliament.

Same goes for the windfall tax for glove stocks. It  has to go through Parliament as well.

Both events cannot happen this year.
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I see. Thanks
abcn1n
post Nov 27 2020, 05:04 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Nov 27 2020, 01:26 PM)
The potential of the company is not in question.

The question lies within the composition of the stock.

ARBB has 431 million shares.
ARBB PA has 631 million shares.

sos

user posted image
user posted image

Conversion price is 20 sen.
This morning reference prices
ARBB-PA is 0.075
ARRB is 29 sen

Which means the PA is in the money (and it has been for a long time).

Search Bursa website... look at the many 'additional listing' announcements arising from conversion of shares.

Which means... as mentioned... one can BUY PA, Convert PA, Sell ARBB.

With such action how to go up?
Look back a couple of months ago.
Same issue with AT.

The warrant was in the money.
Hence, there exist ppl that buy warrant, convert the warrant and then sell. Profit the difference.
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Moral of the story is don't buy ARBB, buy ARBB-PA. I'm holding ARBB at a loss for many months now.
abcn1n
post Nov 27 2020, 05:30 PM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Nov 27 2020, 02:24 PM)
For bank industry, the one to observe is NIM.
Profit margin is more suitable for product, trading, manufacturing industry to observe the healthiness of the industry profitability.

Bank is making money through interest rate spread aka NIM, fee collected, investment banking etc.

Profit for bank can be highly affected by bad loan loss provision, loan loss provision writeback etc.

If bank able to recover previous bad loan provision, or those bad loan is not as severe, then it will write back in the profit.

Bank NIM and loan growth, now also fee and investment banking income are the key indicator for banking industry.
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So what is your view of banking stocks now? Buy/hold/sell? KWSP disposing of MBB the past week. I think if MBB can sustain this price, it will be a good dividend stock.


QUOTE(staticxtreme @ Nov 27 2020, 02:26 PM)
yes, cimb has the worse NIM between the top 5-6 banks

best still is PBB and HLB

Maybank NIM also soso saja
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PBB always very kiasu one. Not surprised.


QUOTE(cherroy @ Nov 27 2020, 02:49 PM)
Moratorium doesn't affect the profit figure.

Loan interest is still incurred on the loan outstanding. Bank profit comes from interest charges to the loan account.

Moratorium affects cashflow, ability to give new loan or potential ability to give generous dividend.
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MBB wrote back impairment losses on loans this round which partially caused the good profit. Banks can always issue bond at low yield if it expects interest rate to rise (if short on CF). That's what UOB is doing in Singapore now.

QUOTE(skty @ Nov 27 2020, 03:10 PM)
yes, Covid19 hurts the economy, but it alone cannot crash the whole world economy. The root cause is already there and bubble getting bigger when day gone by.

history always repeat itself. its a long road to learn about all the financial, demographic, market, politic, etc just to get the answer. laugh.gif

if you are interested, by all means can start learning now as still got 6 more months before the crash. It's a very fun and interesting journey that might spark you to go deeper and deeper into it.  laugh.gif

really really bad ya? it's good you can remember, that mean you have been around since then but never run away from stock market. kudos to you!  thumbsup.gif

this time will be worst than 1998 and 2008. It's best to start saving more money by cutting down unnecessary consumption so we can accumulate more bullets for action when the wealth transfer process take place.

cheers!  icon_rolleyes.gif
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For the world or just Malaysia? I personally think there will not be much of it and if any a short lived one as there will be pent-up spending in 2nd half of 2021 till 2022 plus governments worldwide will start fiscal stimulus. Well, will revisit this issue by end June2021.

This post has been edited by abcn1n: Nov 27 2020, 05:31 PM
abcn1n
post Nov 27 2020, 05:33 PM

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Will be interesting to see which vaccine (Pfizer or China vaccine) Malaysian politicians will choose for themselves. tongue.gif
abcn1n
post Nov 27 2020, 05:37 PM

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QUOTE(ChAOoz @ Nov 27 2020, 05:35 PM)
whistling.gif

Sure the more expensive variant
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What--and give the 'lousier/cheaper' one to the rakyat. cry.gif tongue.gif
abcn1n
post Nov 27 2020, 08:47 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Nov 27 2020, 05:38 PM)
my bet is SEVERAL, plenty billions to spend...

incl RUSSIAN sputnik... russia has said india can make it... think halal...
https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-russia-ag...ndia/a-55743697
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I will not take Russian vaccine. No news on progress and cases spiralling crazily in Russia plus people says Russia is under reporting number of cases. At least for China vaccine, China wants to show a good side to the world by sharing its vaccine plus its being tested in several countries. So, if vaccine really adverse side effects, they won't readily share it. Safer than Sputnik.


QUOTE(cherroy @ Nov 27 2020, 06:05 PM)
8.xx is almost near a pre-covid level price, short term wise, a bit overshoot, so it is likely those bought low including EPF or EPF engaged managers may also want to take some profit off the table.

After all, if track back, many local funds including EPF are constantly buying when the price sliding time months back. 

Nothing wrong to see them disposing some.

It is impossible constantly buying non-stop even a stock is good, from time to time, especially when price become higher time, disposing some to take profit off the table and free up cash so that they have money ready for future downtrend time, or support the share price during sell off.

Investing and trading has all sort of strategy.
So it is no unusual to see them disposing during current up trend.

It is not like this stock is good, then everyday buy and keep only.
Cash position also needs to adjust, as market won't go up straight line and need to prepare cash for downturn (if) as well.
Risk needs to mitigated in between. This is how one of strategy that funds may work, not only buy and keep only.

For banks, if interest rate cut stop or US treasuries stop falling, then we have some stablise effect on banks.
Largely due to stablise in NIM as we know NIM is affected by interest rate movement.
If loan interest become near zero, then it is harder for bank to earn through NIM.
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Recently, I have gotten out of almost all of my MBB at BE after averaging down and holding it for months. Just wondering whether to hold the last one or just let it be. Will see how the market moves and decide from there. Nice to hear your view as although you don't talk much but I think you have lots of experience in the market.


QUOTE(zstan @ Nov 27 2020, 06:08 PM)
Lol worry about FDA approval first. Today is just to secure the supply if it gets approved.
EPF always buy and dump bank stocks year round la
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I knowlah. Bought MBB early this year because noticed that there's a trading range and was thinking of playing it. But then covid struck and the rest is history.

QUOTE(skty @ Nov 27 2020, 06:11 PM)
actually spending has nothing to do whether got fiscal stimulus, or whether they themselves got money or not. Doesn't make sense right?  biggrin.gif

same to all these majority people thought that QE will print unlimited money. So when money supply > demand, inflation will happen. Actually now we are in deflationary period. Doesn't make sense also right?  biggrin.gif 

I think that is the main reason why majority of the so-called analysts are wrong in prediction all the while.  laugh.gif

Ya. We need to always revisit our decision/thinking, then do a post-mortem to find out what's wrong so we can improve ourselves.  nod.gif thumbsup.gif

cheers!  icon_rolleyes.gif
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Deflation for people spending but inflation for stocks
abcn1n
post Nov 27 2020, 10:29 PM

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QUOTE(zstan @ Nov 27 2020, 09:06 PM)
Banks really hard to trade ba. No volatility one
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MBB could last time. Another one with trading range is Nestle before covid19.
abcn1n
post Nov 28 2020, 01:26 AM

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QUOTE(jianwei90 @ Nov 28 2020, 12:12 AM)
I have been trading nestle within a range, not bad the return, better than put in EPF..
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abcn1n
post Nov 29 2020, 12:38 AM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Nov 27 2020, 05:30 PM)
Ahhh... we had this chat on this stock back in May. smile.gif
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Good memory smile.gif
abcn1n
post Dec 15 2020, 02:48 PM

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QUOTE(Duckies @ Dec 15 2020, 01:35 PM)
BREAKING NEWS: Australia just cancelled an order of 51 million doses of a particular COVID-19 vaccine in trials from a company named CSL, because those that were taking it were testing positive for HIV afterward.

https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2020/12/1...-trial-stumbles

https://fortune.com/2020/12/10/covid-19-vac...-pbLnFaBPUDHrZY

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-c...a-idUSKBN28K39A
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Scary!!!! This is what can potentially happen when you fast track too fast a vaccine. Vaccine takes minimum 10 years to develop and here we are developing it in 10 months

It may say false positive for HIV, but who knows.......

This post has been edited by abcn1n: Dec 15 2020, 02:48 PM
abcn1n
post Dec 15 2020, 04:00 PM

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QUOTE(twilight_fever @ Dec 15 2020, 03:46 PM)
and then nothing happen..budget pass just like that..lol..
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Where do you get the latest/minute by minute update?
abcn1n
post Dec 15 2020, 04:30 PM

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QUOTE(twilight_fever @ Dec 15 2020, 04:04 PM)
there is a live version..
https://www.pmo.gov.my/parliament-live-dewan-rakyat/

but i rather wait for someone to summarize it for me..lol..
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Thanks
abcn1n
post Jan 4 2021, 06:11 PM

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QUOTE(theberry @ Jan 4 2021, 05:08 PM)
Who is dumping? brows.gif
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Don't know. But its certainly purposeful dump of Harta and TG (the glove leaders). Volume is insanely huge in the morning. Supermax volume nowhere that huge. Comfort volume only slightly higher. Hmmm....
abcn1n
post Jan 4 2021, 10:48 PM

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QUOTE(statikinetic @ Jan 4 2021, 06:19 PM)
Let me rephrase that question.
Who is able to generate and dump in that volume?
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Certainly the big boys. Its either purposeful dump to collect at cheap price or desperate dump because they know something not good going to happen.
abcn1n
post Jan 5 2021, 04:55 PM

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QUOTE(greyPJ @ Jan 5 2021, 07:43 AM)
yes the big boys are collecting the stock now, price plunge but buying power far outweigh selling pressure.

green = buy
red = sell

user posted image
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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Jan 5 2021, 02:48 PM)
report on RSS.

TG was/is the obvious target.
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https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/glov...-selling-lifted

I think there will be further price drop if yesterday's huge volume was caused by short sell

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