All these expectations of >8%pa and "for sure stuff" within x years...
sigh.. we forget so fast - of 1997-1998 Asian Currency Crisis + 2008-1st qtr 2009 Credit Crisis / CDOs...
Data is data, imperfect as it DEPENDS on the day we look at it.
Thus, one should take into account such AND only invest a portion of $ which is NOT NEEDED FOR SURE for >5 years.
eg.
US markets' mutual funds / ETF
If U looked at your purchases (done in 2009) @ 2010, wah liao eh
If U looked at your purchases (done in 2009) @ 2011, still wah liao eh EXCEPT if Aug/Sep 2011
If U looked at your purchases (done in 2009) @ 2012, still wah liao eh
If U looked at your purchases (done in 2009) @ 2014, still wah liao eh EXCEPT if Oct 2014
If U looked at your purchases (done in 2009) @ 2015, still wah liao eh EXCEPT if Aug 2015
>20% sure, heck 2010 is like holy smokes 100%pa+/-

however, in long term average, 6%pa-10%pa is my expected and statistically for US markets,
it's approximately 8%pa EXCLUDING FEES (eg 1.5%pa management fees by fund houses)
Note - "average" is a head-case itself
Ever heard of the joke: The 6' tall man, drowned in the river with average depth of 5'?
This is where yearly standard deviations (volatility) comes in.
Note 2- some thinks of SD / volatility as "risk".
Personally, if no volatility, no chance of growth
eg. FD's "flatline".... got opportunities for growth? beating inflation in the long term?
er.. for those who are REALLY SKEPTICAL on long term returns, i've been holding Eastspring Investment SmallCap since PRU days (ie. 10years+/- ago) and it is beating 8%pa even as at today and at the low of 2008-2009.
Maybe i'm lucky or it's just statistical probability if the fund managers are consistently "not bad" (don't need to be "great")?
long winded wall of text, just old fart venting/sharing views
to toes unintentionally stepped on
This post has been edited by wongmunkeong: Jan 26 2016, 11:31 AM