Wow SamChem superbullish breakout today! yay!

Well done !

Paging ah boon for tipsy

If you feel you want to be in this game for a long time, don't rush to play.
Do fake trading like I did b4.
I did many years of fake trading.
Practice practice practice b4 i played with real money.
That was my learning and it came without tuition fees.

And also in stocks..for me...
It's always about trading corretly....
In a sense....the returns must be there....else i won't be bothered....
It was not a case of big rush to chase returns...
It's all about doing it logically right....
The rewards, the returns must be there....else why bother.

It's same with investing....
If the returns are not meaningful, why bother?

So tenaga....
Do you have a target price for your investment?

Blardy hell....your own ekobest not good enough???

Yes boss. Tenaga target price is 14 to 15 myr range in the second quarter or third quarter of this year after dividend give out in may. Reasoning is that the cost will be passed onto consumers and sell before election as politians tend to promise to reduce tariffs to win votes.

Not much meat.....i feel

And....errr...sounds a bit confusing for me....
On one hand you think the rising cost will be passed on (but how can tenaga raise tariff now without consent of the govt?) ....and then you talk about the possible election promise to reduce tariffs....
errr....?

No matter what...you do understand that you are speculating....right?

Speculating isn't based on objective findings kan? Just whack and hope it goes up. I have a time line for it. By may to June is the time I reap the dividednds and wait for it to reach target price. Maybe hold longer as elections in Malaysia have been shown to affect the economy albeit a short term effect. So I'll sell all and lock my profits then.

Tenaga already inked cost pass through mechanism with the government, so even if tariff hike up or down it will not matter to tenaga. If cost up, gov pay tenaga, if cost down tenaga pays the govt. So the margins will be super stable.

In terms of profit growth .. it will be muted, but it has hinted it will pay more dividends with its huge cash pile. And it will invest more overseas by raising its gearing level which can be a double edge sword ( in terms foreign risk and more debt).

IMHO i think the jewel in tenaga's asset which no one notices, is the nationwide transmission network... if they just list it as a trust or reit .. shareholders will reap huge rewards.

This post has been edited by gark: Feb 7 2017, 01:23 PM

Well like I always pointed out. How many power providers do We have in Malaysia? What happens when land becomes too expensive in the future? And who knows when the day comes we replace coal which is currently the bane of tenaga

Actually there are A LOT of power companies in Malaysia.. there is formerly 1MDB Power(now owned by chinese), Malakoff and a host of other non listed entities.

Coal is already the cheapest fuel for power station... no other cheaper option available now

Power plant do not require prime land, the more further from populated areas the better due to coal pollution. So there will always be land for them.

This post has been edited by gark: Feb 7 2017, 01:45 PM

Wah, post-CNY ANALisis from Unker Fark

Accumulate?

I used to have it last time.. and sold for some time already.

Need to look more into its future expansion, otherwise.. currently the stock is not exciting... yet.

How can Tenaga monetize it's transmission network, other than for own use?

Regarding cost, natural gas is now as cheap as coal in the US.

Bro feb onwards market is quite okay.

When you want to jump in actively again?

Chuc ban nam moi vui ve

Ban co tipsy cho toi?

All energy providers (IPP) pay a fixed amount per kwh for any electricity transmitted through tenaga's network. Now if the network is listed separately, then tenaga will have to pay at same amount as other IPP to the network. Similarly if the network is down, then it have to pay penalty to the IPPs including tenaga. This is similar to rental payments for REIT. And also similar concept for REIT to cash out and then rent back to their own use. (ie. KPJ)

There are already a few transmission network which has already IPO with a trust/reit concept.

In US, because coal have carbon tax, hence making it expensive (Trump is going to change this). Also this is due to excess gas from fracking operations which will be otherwise wasted.

In reality, at least in south east asia, in terms of mmbtu, coal is half the price of natural gas.

This post has been edited by gark: Feb 7 2017, 05:14 PM

xin loi, minh khong co tipsy

This post has been edited by river.sand: Feb 7 2017, 08:37 PM

em khong tipsy, anh co khong?

Ngomong tipsy lah jangan buat simpen simpen