For the simple checklist, is there a minimum years to compare? like 3 years? 1-2 years data usually not enough?

It's up to you.
1 is too short. Way too short.
3 or 5 years better....i think

Sleeping Beauty vs. Morning Glory





This post has been edited by cooldownguy86: Jun 4 2016, 06:21 PM

Mountain Climber

Calm before the Storm?

Thanks guys, how to start an online account?

All hail the cool dude!



Why you still so active meh?

Remember...you don't have to screw so many at one go....

Market very much more riskier than ever.

Storm here i believe it means gonna go down? Or a good storm?

How do you come out with these charts? I would like to make this kind of chart too for my study.
Any software or website you used to create such chart? (with the current, short period and long period line)

Edit:
Sorry, just saw the "powered by chartnexus"

This post has been edited by Auraguy: Jun 4 2016, 11:08 PM

For Sleeping beauty.....



I could be wrong but the currently, I feel there are a fair bit of stale bull stuck within the stock.
Up movement should be faced with lots of pockets of resistance...
which means .... it probably be a struggle for the stock to revisit its recent high of 170s....

For AirAsia...

It's more like hillS climbling..... LOL!
the top is very far away....



ahem....

the other one....
that's a mountain....

and for those who are afraid of heigts...
they will always afraid of mountains.....

Since we shown some mountain climbing photos...
I thought about the opposite...
the cliff diving photos....

which reminded me of your statement on GinTonic ....

On one hand if you look at the current photo...
it does look like cliff diving....



but if you take a step back....




stock started falling in mid Jan.... (which would have coincided with the retreat of the USD/MYR from 4.30+ region)....
which was followed by a Q4 earnings which was flat/slightly lower ...
which probably signaled a warning that the stock beautiful growth would come to an abrupt ending.....

then the stock started giving way a day ahead of its Q earnings release on 25/4/06
if one is a smart trader.....
do you to trade such a stock then?
or if you are holding... would you want to continue to hold or fast fast cut loss?

for me....
this is DEFINITELY not a crazy dip stock.....



stock trading is risky if you do not understand the risk.

1. USD/MYR depreciated about 7-10% in Mar16-May16 compared to the previous Q (Dec15-Feb16)
2. Rubber price increased about 30%-35% in the same period - http://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=rubber
My guess is the upcoming quarter will have EPS of 6cents. Assuming PE20 then it's fully valued at current price. But then again I may be wrong

I would cut when it drops 15% on 25/4/16. Painful but I will. Better be safe than sorry

This post has been edited by cooldownguy86: Jun 5 2016, 03:03 PM

Yeah but it's not that easy.
Many just cannot cut at the crucial point....

That's why stock trading is so damn risky.

Managing the risk is so important.
In this instance, as a trader, if I was in the stock...
I would have to weigh in the management slowdown warning in Jan, which also coincided with the start of the retreat of the USD/MYR....

stock was on multi years high.....
driven by strong earnings growth....
but 2 of the factors that helped drove the stock so high....
could be a non factor soon....
and worst still it could actually cause earnings to decline .........
wasn't that enough catalyst for the stock trader to pack bag....
and run fast fast with his/her profit?

My possible logical support

Possible.

In trading, knowing where the exit is and when knowing when to exit is important.

Not easy to master.

Let me try OKA..

1. Cash improved from 6.5m in 2015 to 28m in 2016.
2. No longer holding any debts
3. Net profit increased 38%
4. Net profit margin increase from 9% to 14%
5. ROIC improved from 13% to 18%
6. Flattish revenue

Based on current PE of 8.82, it's PEG is only 0.23 <<< 1

It is now a cash machine. Dividend will definitely increase sooner or later.

I think if revenue can be improved, this stock will be definitely a good stock to trade.

Ok kah?

Wa! Some 1 was hardworking and did some work.

These stuff is a form of simple checklist.

As some would say...
as long as the stock checks your boxes in your checklist...
just trade the stock....

however, I have to say one thing...
you did just a simple comparison between this period versus period year same period...
it's just a one year comparison...
the risk is...
sometimes you could be unfortunate....
and run into a one hit wonder.....

This post has been edited by Boon3: Jun 6 2016, 07:08 AM

Wow, Sifu active early in the morning during weekends and on weekdays. Good stuff!

Smart trader or not.... Gtronic was indeed a tricky stock to trade/invest in.

1. What's the differentiating factor between Gtronic and other mountain climbing stocks before the 4th qtr FY15 and 1st Qtr FY16 announcement results?
Aren't they the same? Multi-year high, strong growth, good cashflow, good mgmt etc.
(Note: I'm ignoring the forex impact, as this happened to all export-oriented comps as well).

2. Entry price plays a big role in whatever decision u want to do - cut loss with minimal or painful losses; sell with good or peanut profits; or just do nothing.

3. From 1 qtrly result alone (4th qtr FY15), could u really have made a disciplined decision to sell?
Or would you have waited for another qtr's results to see how things go?
Or can one even decide to sell even without referring to the qtrly results and sold specifically on 7 or 8 Jan 2016 itself?
Seriously, given Gtronic's track record so far, would u really sell and risk the price rebounding and breaking out at a higher level?

4. How many people could really interpret what the 4th Qtr FY15 results was really telling us with such info:
a. Revenue Q415 vs Q414 - down by 14%, but GP Margin improved from 22% to 30%
b. Net profit Q415 vs Q414 - improved by 3%, NP Margin improved from 17% to 20%.
(Note: I'm ignoring Total comprehensive income as the "other comprehensive income" element is non-distributable)
c. Cash balances and FCF improved.
d. Comments such as:
versus
e. 2.6 mill gain from forex in 4th qtr FY15 alone.

5. If you check into 2015 AR - no mention or indication of 2016 prospects/outlook having any issue.

6. In 1st Qtr FY16, you will see this sentence "reduction in end customers' demand and general slow down in the industry" mentioned a few times. We also saw that mentioned above in 4th Qtr FY15 results.
Why can't they be straight forward to just say they are facing technology obsolescence for some of their products and will need time to create new products plus they are also having some deferment issues for some orders? Makes things easier to understand/comprehend right?

So, after considering the above, is it really easy to spot Mountain Climbers doing the reverse (after ignoring forex element) and can one really sell a stock so easily given the comp's past performance, business model and mgmt credibility?

Any average joe out there without insider info or even specific industry insight would have thought that Gtronic as a market leader in their field and would have done the necessary to avoid their current fiasco. But as usual, nothing is linear forever right?

This post has been edited by TC-Titan: Jun 6 2016, 10:55 AM