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 Investors Club V9, Previously known as Traders Kopitiam

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gark
post Mar 30 2016, 11:08 AM

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QUOTE(felixmask @ Mar 30 2016, 10:55 AM)
u waiting what ..Brent oil price reach $100 per barrel ...
OPEC want the price at $50...
*
Waiting fro $80 by 2018 tongue.gif
gark
post Mar 30 2016, 12:49 PM

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QUOTE(felixmask @ Mar 30 2016, 11:35 AM)
Got compare dialog?
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Dialog is overpriced, not much upside. innocent.gif

Oil price up or down not much impact to dialog, as they are doing oil storage.

This post has been edited by gark: Mar 30 2016, 12:51 PM
gark
post Mar 30 2016, 12:51 PM

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QUOTE(Pink Spider @ Mar 30 2016, 11:46 AM)
3 totally different companies laugh.gif
*
Here penny stock for you to analyze. bruce.gif

Tell us what you think fundamentally. tongue.gif

» Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... «


This post has been edited by gark: Mar 30 2016, 12:51 PM
gark
post Mar 30 2016, 12:56 PM

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QUOTE(felixmask @ Mar 30 2016, 12:55 PM)
That why I want to tell you.
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Nope not interested. tongue.gif
gark
post Mar 30 2016, 01:51 PM

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QUOTE(Pink Spider @ Mar 30 2016, 01:37 PM)
TONER...??? confused.gif
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Bole kah? brows.gif

Sked holland.. laugh.gif laugh.gif laugh.gif
gark
post Mar 30 2016, 02:05 PM

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QUOTE(Pink Spider @ Mar 30 2016, 01:55 PM)
Don't have regular dividend history...NO sleep.gif
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Namanya.. punting stock. dry.gif
gark
post Mar 30 2016, 02:16 PM

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QUOTE(TC-Titan @ Mar 30 2016, 02:07 PM)
Interesting sharing.

After taking a quick look this what I think:

1. 2015 calendar results look good thanks to USD (97% of sales from export) and cost savings since most of their are in MYR.
2. Can they continue to sustain their performance in 2016 given USD fluctuating? Not too sure on their billings and volume - contract for short/mid/long terms with customers or once-off billings with retailers or a mixture of both.
3. I'm surprised to see revenue decreasing from China operations and still incurring net operating losses versus MY.
4. Too lazy to think on the further impact of JPY and Oil Price to their costing.
5. Cashflow seems ok. Red flag is on the inventories - too much balance as at FYE. Possibility of higher impairment or W/Os later.
6. Noticed no impairment or w/o for PPE. Potential for some to be incurred in next FY?

P/E, PB, NP and GP looks ok. Seems okay to punt/trade for ST. But for LT investing... subjective. Need to do more homework.

U can literally make it "Jadi".  brows.gif
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Yes USD and low oil price (resin) is helping their profits, otherwise the sales are stagnant.

They are winding down and closing down their china factory and moving the machine to Malaysia (by July).. so the china operations loss is going to be less.

They are converting their monochrome toner machine into higher margin color toner.

FCF is good, as they have a HUGE depreciation cost and very low capex. (due to excess machine)

Risk if USD becomes lower and people use less toner (e-document) dry.gif

This post has been edited by gark: Mar 30 2016, 02:18 PM
gark
post Mar 30 2016, 02:20 PM

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QUOTE(Pink Spider @ Mar 30 2016, 02:17 PM)
Who can spoonfeed me?

Wants a plantation stock with >3% divvy yield innocent.gif
*
KLK, UP, BKawan, CBIP, Kfima, KM loong .. u picklah.

This post has been edited by gark: Mar 30 2016, 02:22 PM
gark
post Mar 30 2016, 02:27 PM

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QUOTE(Pink Spider @ Mar 30 2016, 02:26 PM)
OKOK balik buat homework dulu notworthy.gif

WHY U NO MENTION TAANN??? tongue.gif
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That list is just of my mind one... not familiar with Ta Ann tongue.gif
gark
post Mar 30 2016, 02:34 PM

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QUOTE(TC-Titan @ Mar 30 2016, 02:29 PM)
The terms of the contracts entered may play a crucial role on what happens to their results, as I believe they do natural hedge n nothing on cash flow or forward hedges.

I think they are also dependent on how many toners are consumed n whether their toners will be rendered obsolete with change in tech.

I can't find their role or contribution in 3d printing. Hmmmm
A bit weird they don't have any US operations also.
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They don't do 3d printing, only toner for photocopy machine and laserjet. They sell to OEM suppliers (original cartridge) and those cheapo 're-fill' ones. blush.gif

I think their US operations closed down already. China will be next. They now export from MY plant. They are still Asia's largest toner manufacturer.

Dont know if this is a sunset industry? hmm.gif

This post has been edited by gark: Mar 30 2016, 02:36 PM
gark
post Mar 30 2016, 03:06 PM

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QUOTE(TC-Titan @ Mar 30 2016, 02:53 PM)
RHB Research wrote n presented on Jadi recently. TP 15c.

Jadi bought a UK comp to help with distribution to Europe.
I think the first two quarters for FY16 shud still be profitable n decent since USD has been hovering above Rm4 plus for quite a while.

Sunset industry matters not on the ST.
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Yar.. saw the RHB report too. wink.gif

From last Q, PAT is 0.5 sen, but if exclude forex loss, PAT is actually 1 sen, FCF is about 2 sen.. drool.gif

If this can continue for next few Q, then 15 sen TP might be reasonable. innocent.gif

But I still waiting ... sweat.gif

This post has been edited by gark: Mar 30 2016, 03:07 PM
gark
post Mar 30 2016, 04:51 PM

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QUOTE(holybo @ Mar 30 2016, 04:29 PM)
Anyone interested in BAT? Almost 6% DY
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Bat factory going to tutup kedai, MSS all employees by end 2016. Become trading kompeni..import ciggy from Indon and sell locally.. Think they want to challenge the 'lanuns' tongue.gif

This post has been edited by gark: Mar 30 2016, 04:55 PM
gark
post Mar 30 2016, 04:53 PM

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Busy busy day...

Sold BWPT, @ 4X% gain drool.gif
Sold SRIL, @ 1X% gain.. dry.gif
Bought ROTI, @ 12XX rclxms.gif
gark
post Mar 31 2016, 10:26 AM

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QUOTE(CP88 @ Mar 30 2016, 08:06 PM)
Busy kaching kaching kaching!  tongue.gif
*
Small money only. tongue.gif
gark
post Mar 31 2016, 10:27 AM

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QUOTE(river.sand @ Mar 30 2016, 08:17 PM)
all indo mie  dry.gif
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IDX more exciting than KLSE mah.. devil.gif devil.gif devil.gif
gark
post Mar 31 2016, 10:30 AM

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QUOTE(Pink Spider @ Mar 31 2016, 10:08 AM)
Plantation really is beyond me...really rely purely on ANALyst reports to study doh.gif
*
Why beyond you? Actually very easy only mah...

For growth

1. Average palm oil age
2. Unplanted landbank

For Income

1. FFB Yield (Ton FFB/ha)
2. OER (Oil Extraction rate) (% Oil recovered form each ton of FFB)
3. EV / ha planted


That's it. laugh.gif

And its really simple, plantation cost are more or less fixed, so every RM 100 up in oil price = additional RM 100 in profit per ton CPO produced.

RHB Report Link.

This post has been edited by gark: Mar 31 2016, 10:33 AM
gark
post Mar 31 2016, 11:03 AM

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QUOTE(river.sand @ Mar 31 2016, 10:52 AM)
Soybean price
MYR
RSPO
Palm oil tax
Other regulations
El nino
China's slow down

Need free lectures from master gark brows.gif
*
CPO price tracks soybean.. so just having info on CPO price is good enough. wink.gif
gark
post Mar 31 2016, 11:04 AM

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QUOTE(Pink Spider @ Mar 31 2016, 10:55 AM)
I only know earnings growth and divvy yield doh.gif

On a very basic level, I like UP (for divvy yield) and United Malacca (for potential) unsure.gif
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I like UP.. very good and professional company.. but the P/E.. sweat.gif sweat.gif sweat.gif

UM.. is like kici miow plantation.. dry.gif

This post has been edited by gark: Mar 31 2016, 11:06 AM
gark
post Mar 31 2016, 11:24 AM

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QUOTE(Pink Spider @ Mar 31 2016, 11:21 AM)
But expanding into Indomie wor
Indomie have young tree profile devil.gif
*
Ya meh.. I only saw they have peninsular and east MY plantation.

How many Ha in Indon, and location? Then I can give recommendation. tongue.gif
gark
post Mar 31 2016, 11:38 AM

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QUOTE(Pink Spider @ Mar 31 2016, 11:26 AM)
http://klse.i3investor.com/files/my/ptres/res35257.pdf

http://klse.i3investor.com/files/my/ptres/res35257.pdf

http://www.theedgemarkets.com/my/article/u...-boost-earnings
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UM acquired 83% of PT Lifere Agro Kapuas (Central Kalimantan), for 66.4 Mil USD, EV/Ha = $4750 per ha, $8,000 per planted Ha. This moderate price, not cheap but not expensive.

Total ha = 24,585 (17k plantable), with 10K already planted average age 3.5 years, 4 ha already mature. Another 1.5-2.5 years to full maturity.

Not too bad, should be able to boost UMCC profits by 20%-30% in 1-2 years time and 40%-60% by 4-5 years when fully planted.

But most of the future growth is already priced in as it's current PE is quite high... sweat.gif

This post has been edited by gark: Mar 31 2016, 11:40 AM
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