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 Capital A Berhad /AirAsia (5099), Asia's largest LCC group

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ChAOoz
post May 30 2019, 10:08 AM

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General rule of thumb. If a company is doing well and they announce high dividend that is a good sign and means company is doing ok and they look after share holders.

However if revenue / profit goes down but they still declare higher than average dividend it could be a smokescreen. Dont let that misguide your decisions
ChAOoz
post Mar 13 2020, 09:32 AM

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Airasia dividend payout and sales/leaseback program is coming back to haunt them.

I hope it doesn't go into cash flow problem
ChAOoz
post Mar 13 2020, 10:34 AM

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While Tony & Co. cash out quite a big chunk already. To the tune of close to RM1bil lol.
ChAOoz
post Mar 13 2020, 11:58 AM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Mar 13 2020, 11:53 AM)
Exactly. Sometimes if one takes the stock out of the equation, they will then understand if the stock is worth bothering....

For me, I always ask the simple question...

How was Airasia able to pay big dividends not too long ago?

Well, they already decided they needed the sales and leaseback. Debts gearing was way too big already. Unsustainable. Esp when you have less than 1 billion cash and carry more than 12 billion bank borrowings. New planes are coming in regularly (that 19us billion plane order). Ticket sales are simply not growing fast enough. So sales and leaseback was needed.

They then created a wholly owned subsidiary to handle the leaseback, called AAC.

So AAC but the planes and leaseback to their parent company, Airasia.

So voila. Airasia became rich by selling own planes and leasing back own planes. How rich? Was it 1 billion?

And they then got some company to buy this leasing company. LMAO!!

So Airasia got millions and millions and millions to give back to shareholder.

They needed the money cause too much bank borrowings. Instead of trying to lower the debts and improve their balance sheet, they gave out millions and millions in dividends.

Wait. The curveball was the previous year(s), Airasia did a cash call but that cash call (private placement of shares) as offered to only Tony and his partner.

Thinking about it. It was genius. Share placement to its big boss. Subsequently big dividend was given out. I think it was genius. You say?
Yes, the brand Airasia is there. Cheap flights are good. Who doesn't love cheap flights? But since there exist so many other stocks why should I bother trading the stock that carries so much questionable issues?
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People don't care and they still buy. Buy low sell high ya.

They would be better off buying genm dip.
ChAOoz
post Apr 7 2020, 05:38 PM

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AA has not much value except for its branding and goodwill.

Bad business - thin margin, capital intensive and burn through cash like no tomorrow.

And still owe mahb tax. That small amount against AA such big business also dont want to pay say alot about the business.
ChAOoz
post Jul 7 2020, 12:33 AM

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QUOTE(Cubalagi @ Jul 6 2020, 11:44 PM)
"Not good" is an understatement...
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Rights of use assets. Prepayment. Culmulative mounting losses of 1.6bil.

AA is totally swimming naked. It is eating into share holders pocket now literally if you look into their balance sheets.

If this continue another quarter unless got new capital injection which mean further dilution of share holders, AA will be having a hard time to survive.
ChAOoz
post Jul 8 2020, 09:50 AM

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Well atleast AA never fudged their number. From their balance sheet you already know they are in big trouble. Their share dropped so little yesterday already can see many never read the reports.

Even with EY audited opinion people still hoping for good news and thought suspension is to provide good news. Crazy, crazy time.
ChAOoz
post Jul 8 2020, 10:06 AM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Jul 8 2020, 10:02 AM)
Err..... there's way too much numbers in the rpt.... and it's not easy to get an understanding... in fact much easier to 'hide stuff'... this issue has been brought up b4... which was one of the main point brought by one ang moh... tongue.gif

The planes  they sold to the leasing companies... err... how come it can declared as a non current asset? Sold already ma... can then flip and coin them as 'right of use assets' meh? No under standing... rclxub.gif

The hedges.... they had been hedging over a billion... and for me, what's given (the info) is not enough.... and more so... when they are sitting on more than a billion ringgit in hedging losses...

Paper losses more than a billion in hedging...
Burned 900 million cash for the quarter ending March....
huhu... the lockdown period... no income... how?

Die die die die....

And oh ... they still got the capital commitment to buy new planes is now over 115 Billion!!!!

115 Beeeeeeeeeeeeeeelliiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiooooooooonnnn !!!!
rolleyes.gif  rolleyes.gif
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Oh yeah another thing, they sold alot of advance booking and booked those orders on to book already even the fulfillment did not happen yet. If refund were to happen the cash drain will be another issue.
ChAOoz
post Jul 8 2020, 01:54 PM

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Airasia Share Holder Equity is @ 37%. Meaning 0.855 @ 37% = RM0.316 ya. Thus triggering the PN17 criteria.

This is for quarter ended 31st March. I can tell you, those that still hold this share after Q2 your share of AirAsia might become worthless or worth very little if there is a bail out / capital injection.

Do correct me if my interpretation is wrong on the PN17 trigger.
https://www.bursamalaysia.com/market_inform...?ann_id=3066780

Still many people say time to buy when people panic. Speechless ah

ChAOoz
post Jul 8 2020, 02:05 PM

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Instead of a bank run we going to have a plane ticket run now 😂
ChAOoz
post Jul 9 2020, 10:30 AM

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I dont get why people like to buy debt and liabilities. But seemed market is telling us people really do like it.

I guess just the brand name of airasia is worth few billions of intrinsic value.
ChAOoz
post Jul 9 2020, 10:59 AM

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QUOTE(markedestiny @ Jul 9 2020, 10:38 AM)
Do you know during the march low down, many established companies in US  were fighting off hostile takeover attempts when their stock price fell drastically?

I am guessing AA's competitors or interested potential big players are looking at this stock with an eye for longer term view...so when is the good time to do the hostile takeover? 

Just my 2 cents, I might be wrong but I always like to apply the scenarios that have taken place in US market especially...
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US hostile take over or corporate raiding happen when share prices fall below the company underlying assets value. Meaning if you take controlling power via buy over and pay off all its debt + obligations and liquidate all its assets you still get positive cash back. This is due to on-going business they have hard assets such as property, plant, equipment, patents & IPs.

In Airasia case, you just raid a pile of debt back which Tony bought for RM1 initially. Now you buy all this debt and liabilities at a tune of few billions. Crazzzy.
ChAOoz
post Jul 9 2020, 11:13 AM

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A simple analogy is like this.

A once famous burger stall currently owes creditors RM100k + employee monthly salary RM50K every month.

The only asset they have which is the physical burger stall and shop, they sold it to a leasing company and lease back at RM10k / month. The money sold for the burger stall and shop the owner pocketed instead of putting back into the business.

Now with 160k of monthly expenses running, the boss say i got no money to pay. But hey i got a great business model, so I'm willing to sell you RM500k for a 50% stake in my monthly debt obligation of RM160k.

Would you pay RM500k to be a partner of a money losing burger stall that got no asset except for the brand name ? Knowing the money you put in probably will let them burn finish in 5 - 6 months with nothing to show for it.

That my friend is airasia in a nutshell.
ChAOoz
post Jul 9 2020, 11:17 AM

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QUOTE(markedestiny @ Jul 9 2020, 11:10 AM)
As you mentioned,  worthy or not to do a hostile takeover may be due to brand name and also being  leading Asia LCC market dominance  bruce.gif  tongue.gif
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Ahaha for me i don't want to dominate a no profit established business la. Airlines and for the matter of fact low cost carrier, is going to be capital draining for atleast 1 - 2 years till demand goes back to peak.

If i want to drain money like that, i would rather bet on tech startup / unicorns for better returns. As the risk/reward seemed fairer in my view.

But that's just my take. Maybe some industry insider that know the business much better would want AA.
ChAOoz
post Jul 9 2020, 11:40 AM

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QUOTE(markedestiny @ Jul 9 2020, 11:32 AM)
Your bearish view is up to 1-2 years, agreeable  with this... after 2 years?  assuming the pent up travel  demands once the pandemic died off biggrin.gif

Btw, looking at the momentum now, any traders worth their salt should have earned some fast bucks  now that the share is up  7.++% 
Not asking you to buy but just offering alternative  and  longer term views...
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Yeah punting and investing a bit different. If you punt airasia, i would say 50/50 you can make money. It's a good punt, cause Airasia got a good branding, meaning there is appetite from the retail end.

As for long term, i definitely think they are a cash burning business. They might need atleast 3 bil to 5 bil cash burn just to survive and maybe start to turn around. Once turn around i'm guessing if done well 500m / annum profit max ? It will need 10 - 15 years to recoup the 2 years of heavy cash burn.

Anyway I'm looking as if i own the business. If share price, once turn around show profit, i guess P/E could jump 50x and you would have win the trade.
ChAOoz
post Jul 11 2020, 04:41 PM

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They cant / refuse to pay airport tax. Big red flag.

 

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