The cash they have at Dec 2019 stood at RM2.5bil, i believe it can only last up to 6-9 months and then cash will be depleting. Their major expenses is going to haunt them for sure.

1. Plane leasing (Deferment is still a big question mark)
2. Staff cost (Many of it consist of allowances, force unpaid leave implemented since Feb 2020)
3. Fuel hedging (About 70% fuel price is hedge at $60 per barrel, u don't use the fuel while grounded but u still need to honour the future contract when it is due)
4. Plane maintenance

The rest like aircraft parking fee has waived by MAHB at the moment. If this covid-19 lingering around for another half year, airline business is not going to be rosy for sure.

to be fair i don't think any airlines is making money at the moment

U better study well before u invest into it, covid-19 might strike back and hinder people from travelling. If all those above happened, load factor drop, do u think AirAsia can maintain load factor above 80%? Load factor is linked to their profitability.

You think they did OK in their currency hedging? How about their interest rate hedges? These 2 hedges were bigger than their fuel hedges? And both had big swings too. Was AA on the right side of the hedges?

Ok. Coming quarter. Meeeellions of losses are to be expected but these are the few things I am looking at...

1. Total lease.
2. Total lease paid per quarter.
3. How many leasors are allowing AA to defer payment.
4. Total cash burned for the quarter.
5. The next quarter is even greater as it will be for the period Feb to May.
6. Amount due from its subsidiaries.
7. Hedging. Check the amount hedged vs the Dec qtr. If hedges increased, this showed how aggressively Tony gambled when prices went against him....

which other stock collects airport tax from customers but did not pay gov?

mahb is a plc, is not gomen.

That hedging on currency i tak tau lah

But fuel hedging remain as the same issue at year 2008, i remember Tony hedge it when oil price at peak at year 2007 $100, 2008 financial crisis oil price drop gao gao, MAS also did hedging but they cut loss in one shot, Airasia opted not to cut loss in one shot and honour the contract when it is due. That time AA still able to sell future ticket and having cash flowing in. This time, not much of cash flowing in for sure.

Based on the CIMB research by Raymond Yap, he wrote a well piece of advices there, he was criticise Tony for going asset light model business. When asking for government loan, why not he chip in private placement since both of them already got RM5bil dividend from the sales and leaseback.

The government also headache who to save, for sure they will prioritize MAS.

.....and who owns the largest shares in MAHB?

gomen may be is the controlling shareholder of glc, glc is not gomen.

This post has been edited by icemanfx: Apr 13 2020, 12:46 PM

and who amends the law to allow MAHB to collect airport tax..?

AA can survive around 10 Months

mahb is collecting passenger service charge (psc) not airport tax, transaction between mahb and ak is under commercial contract.

LOL. I guess I am not the only one bashing AA then.

When you go asset like, I feel that the most important asset left is the cash. That's the last line of defence. But no, AA shot itself in the groin when it decided to give away 5 billion as special dividend. Now it wants help? What's the Cantonese phrase 'Deserve to die'?

Rights issue is one way out. But when you look at the shareholder structure.. Tony and his sidekick, owns more than 60% of AA directly/indirectly. So are these 2 jokers (who benefited the most from the 5 billion special dividend) willing to fork out the money to safe their company? Or do they still believe that Other People Money will save their ass?

They could do a placement of shares to raise money but who would want to buy in an asset light company? And more so in a period such as now when air travel is almost dead for dunno how long....

ak behaviour is not unique in bursa. How many and which plc in bursa not benefiting the controlling shareholders before minority shareholders?

This post has been edited by icemanfx: Apr 13 2020, 01:25 PM

Bank will unlikely finance them at this current moment, it is way too high risk, unless u have government as guarantor lah. So the 2 viable options is right issue and private placement to increase their cash holdings.

Remember back in early 2017 tony & kamaruddin did the private placement at RM1.80 per share, it cost them RM1bil and their shareholding increase to 32.18%. Count from there there is total of RM1.30 special dividend and RM0.48 interim & final dividend, make it total of RM1.9bil they received in this 3 years. If he has sincerity, he should call for private placement from their own pocket at least half billion, then seek for government loan or maybe private placement from EPF.

https://ir.airasia.com/major_shareholder.html

http://www.klsescreener.com/v2/stocks/view...ia-group-berhad

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/aira...or-shareholders

Actually i am quite against they going for asset light model, their cost will increase because lessor will need to earn a margin from it.

Sincerity? Lol. Let's sit and watch then.

BTW... which is why I am totally against the bailout. Those 2 owns the big chunk of share. Why should govt bailout the 2 big fat cat?

For reasons, bursa is known as croc pond. Small shareholders can cry foul, protest or what not, has little impact on corporate movers and shakers.

After sometime, when money could be made, all will be forgotten and back to drink from the pond.

This post has been edited by icemanfx: Apr 13 2020, 02:42 PM

if Air asia Indonesia , air asia X go bust, that affects AA greatly also isnt it? or not

sure there's effects..

but it's associates only rights...
they don't have majority in both entities.... only branding... they cannot pay $$ to AA..
in the end AA group also suffers