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 Fundsupermart.com v12, Najibnomics to lift KLCI?

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lizardjeremy
post Oct 7 2015, 04:19 PM

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QUOTE(dasecret @ Oct 7 2015, 12:19 PM)
In volatile markets like this, if you do lumpsum investments, it's better to catch the market when it's lower than when there is a sales charge discount right? usually when market is down, it's more than 1%  hmm.gif
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what is a volatile market?do we measure volatility on a daily/weekly/monthly/annual basis or premise upon one's subjective feeling?

how do we enumerate volatilty ?is there a metric to measure volatility

thank you sir for ur reponse
lizardjeremy
post Oct 7 2015, 05:28 PM

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QUOTE(wongmunkeong @ Oct 7 2015, 04:51 PM)
pardon me for butting in - interesting subject close to my heart notworthy.gif

While i agree that one can't get "the lowest low" & "the highest high"
AND buying LUMP SUM based on "volatility" is a bit.. daft..,
IMHO, there is a statistical / probability way to hedge one's investing's ins & outs.

Standard Deviation (SD in short)
If an investment's cost (usually called price) moves waaaaay too far from it's SD,
then there is a higher probability that the reverse will happen.
In simple talk - some calls this reversion to mean / "return to norm".

eg.
if S&P500 has fallen to below -2SD, probability is high that if one buys then and can hold it,
one's probability to make $ is >95% ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/68%E2%80%9395...%80%9399.7_rule )

eg2.
of course, the reverse is also true
if S&P500 has risen to above +2SD, probaility is high that if one buys then...

Again no 100% probability lar  laugh.gif
but, hey, it's like a lelong or crazy cost vs value gauge.

The only issue is - does one use 1yr, 3yrs, 5yrs, 10yrs cost or price data to calculate the SD
Vs current cost or price?
Personally - i look at 1yr, 6yrs & 9yrs SD
Gives me a good idea of recent, the mid and the longer term.
Then i buy MORE (on top of my value averaging) or i buy LESS / divest & move into another investment heheh
sirs


Just a thought and open to bettering the concepts above via ding-dong (argument, discussion, blah blah tongue.gifnotworthy.gif
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sir if sd is an indicator of the volatility of markets what is then a 'normal'market?or is there a normal market to begin with ?

lizardjeremy
post Oct 11 2015, 05:34 PM

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QUOTE(Junrave @ Oct 11 2015, 01:35 PM)
Hi, How do you calculate IRR and ROI?
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well,1st come 1st ,what are these funds benchmark against?s&P 500 mcsi pacific ?mcsi ? ex japan mcsi emerging market ?klci?etc
after establishing the benchmark for reference
we can then compare the annualised return or the cagr or irr with the benchmark which will provide an indicaton of the return of the fund ie whether the fund has over or underperform the index.

this is just a crude approximation of the return using irr/cagr which has not taken the most important element deeply embedded in any investment vehicle ie risk into consideration

all this information is available in the prospectus

another erroneous or inaccurate assumption abt the japanese economy is that japanese comp.are deeply in debt
this is utter rubbish -jap economy was in the doldrums experiencing 10+years of deflation. they have amassed a formidable war chest during the pre bubble years before 1989 that was tug under the mattress and never seen the light of the day even as of 2015

one of the reasons for the spluttering growth despite japanese qe was mainly due to the big corporations not borrowing from the banks despite massive injection of credit into the system.they have hoarded enough monies to embark on any project if only the economy show any visible signs of emerging from the 'lost decade'

after the battering and ravages suffered by jap corp.during the bubble and deflation thereafter ,most of them are prudent with their monies and investment.at the consumer level,theres no burst of activity as jap is still mired in or suck into the deflationary spiral which seemingly is finding it extremely difficult to extricate from the quagmire

This post has been edited by lizardjeremy: Oct 11 2015, 06:51 PM
lizardjeremy
post Oct 15 2015, 03:38 PM

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cost of buying/selling mutual funds

loading 2%
expense ratio 2%(not inclusive of trading cost and capital gain tax incurred in some mature market eg usa-these are hidden cost)
buying and selling (daily fluctuation of stock prices approximately 1%)2%
total cost =6%
the fund must deliver a return of 6% annualised to get even before any profit can be realised

moral of the story-dont drift like those fund managers who chases current winners churning the portfolio away from their stated objectives




lizardjeremy
post Oct 15 2015, 08:54 PM

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QUOTE(Vincent9696 @ Oct 15 2015, 05:05 PM)
This is for their internal fund manager or this info talk about investor?
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well there are costs involved in running a mutual fund
1 administrative cost inclusive of trustee fees
2 you need to pay the financial wizards or managers to do the bidding for you in the hope that they beat the index
3 in trading stocks the fund needs to pay brokerage fees and taxes ie trading cost plus capital gain from selling those stocks in some countries(hidden cost)-investors pay for this trading cost which is deducted from the fund
4 when you buy/sell units you inadvertently incurred additional cost to your trade.the general assumption is that the daily fluctuation of stock PRICES is about 1%
5 front/end loaded fees

1+2=2%
4=2%
5=2%
3 is indeterminable as this cost is dependent on the frequency of trading of the fund

not lucid enough, perhaps you need to talk to an independent financial adviser with no vested interest in your investment
lizardjeremy
post Oct 15 2015, 09:08 PM

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QUOTE(adele123 @ Oct 15 2015, 05:22 PM)
ROI: 7.64%, IRR: 8.09%

FundIRR (%)ROI (%)
Kenanga Growth Fund5.205.79
Aberdeen Islamic World Equity Fund9.219.81
CIMB Asia Pacific Dynamic Income Fund10.619.56
CIMB AP PRS10.206.26
Manulife India5.443.81
Eastspring AxJ Target Return Fund5.163.78
RHB Asian Total Return Fund23.2213.46

the changes in 2 weeks...
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what is the benchmark for all these funds?

these figures are meaningless without comparing them to the appropiate benchmark

CAGR or IRR much touted by investors only form part of the equation in our assessment of investment return,the other metric sorely missing in most discussion in this board is risk/volatility-
CAGR is a smoothed return over a defined period which is a poor reflection of the actual dispersion of return in that period

in addition i would just ignore ROI which is a general metric not suitable for measuring the return of mutual fund





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