Banking stocks is good and can create "value" or "inflation hedge" when the economy is having inflation.
But Sg is having a threat of deflation currently instead inflation.

Banking sector is best to invest when there is a financial/economy crisis, as banking stocks generally are the one hardest hit during difficult time, due to nature of its business that using leverage to operate.

If property sector sank, banking sector will follow suit one, as bulk of banks' loan are related to property sector in most countries.

So they are inter-related.

Please do not spread unfounded rumour/news.

This is a serious allegation.
Thank you.

It is ok to opine whatever based on personal view, just please refrain telling other to do whatever thing, or sending panic statement to other just like as posted.


Finance section is a serious discussion avenue. We do not want people to spread unfounded rumour and sending any panic mode for general public.
As some uninformed and panicking forumers may act unwisely and lose money or even being scammed in the process due to some panic statement or unfounded rumour made by others.

There is no strict capital control in place, and no sign of further stricter rules of capital control in foreseeable future.

If a central bank really wants to have capital control, it would be done instantaneously with blanket control, just like what had happened during 1998.

This control or rules are mild/lenient as compared, which just suggested, BNM doesn't intend to have such a capital control in the first place.

The move what I see is that BNM just wants RM being lesser influenced by NDF market.

One can opine about any possibility, no problem.

Just please refrain of telling other what to do, and spread unfounded rumour (reason: mentioned in previous post).

Declaration is a norm thing, and already is a requirement since after 1998, be it for children study at overseas, investment etc, one still need to declare the purpose of the money transfer, it is a routine process.
May be last time, there is more lax in term of routine, but now more stricter, still anyone declared properly with proper documentation, there is no problem to TT.

There is a difference between opine, pre-warn vs spreading panic statement.

This is a serious finance section, and involving everyone hard earned money, so we expect a more "professional" discussion instead of kopitiam like talk.

We can see in the forum some even asking whether the control means they cannot TT money out anymore, cannot open FCA account, cannot invest abroad, door is closing etc, just showed that there are many informed forumers/public.

That's why we need to be careful and post in more responsible way especially at this current timing.


This post has been edited by cherroy: Dec 4 2016, 03:43 PM

I do not have crystal ball to know the future, but if one has experience what was happened on 1998 aka the "real capital control" in place, then as compared, current move is miniature only.

I do not speculate the future nor I have crystal ball to know anything in the future, hence I won't post "please move money to where or what to invest".
When there is not capital control in place, I will post no capital control in place.
I won't say, the door is closing when the door is actually opening.
While I said no sign of further capital control is based on no limit imposed on local to invest abroad, except those invest with borrowing.

If the door is really closing time based on measures taken, I will say the door is closing, as simple as that.

If really want to have a capital control, they would impose straight away just like what happened on 1998, and won't let anyone has the chance "to move the money" already.
Those went through the 1998 crisis, knew that all foreign funds are "locked in" and cannot go out for 1 year at that time with instant measure.
This is how to real capital control taking place.

Instead of draining foreign currency reserves to fence off speculative money, it is much better with capital control.
Foreign currency reserves shouldn't be used for profiting speculators in the currency market.

Sorry OT too much, I will end the RM control issue at this point, further will post at in the RM/USD thread in the Finance section.

This post has been edited by cherroy: Dec 4 2016, 09:51 PM

To be fair, traditional telco industry is facing a big change within the industry from voice, to data, whereby data is way more capital intensive and less profitable compared to voice revenue.

It is same happening in Malaysia as well and elsewhere worldwide.

With fast changing tech and business environment, it is tougher to choose stocks as compared like 80 to 90s.

I don't think it is right time to have bond at least from now until near future, due to rising treasuries yield.

Fed likely to hike rate next week.
ECB is reported likely to end easing monetory policy as well.

Even it is 10 years bond or be it 30 years, bond price also will also be fluctuating in between, aka there may be paper loss in between as well.
Treasuries 10 years is 3%, and risk free (set aside the currency risk), this 10 year bond at 4.3%, just a little more.

1) Fed hike cycle seems still continue, due to strength of US economy. Current 1.5% Fed fund rate is still low based on historical average.

2) A lot of time, rate raising cycle ended with economy problem/crisis... because a lot of time Fed was behind the curve.

I am a little prefer reit compared to bond for time being due to better yielding, as both have similar correlation to interest rate.
I definitely love to have bond when Fed fund rate becoming more than 3% time.

I do not mean it is not good to have currently, (especially with the intention of diversification), just currently until near future or short term wise, bond doesn't seem a attractive place to be, as bond market generally in bearish trend.

Just my view though.

Btw, next week got Fed meeting, we may have a better picture of the hike cycle.

Basically, to justify it, it is rather simple

1) One is "satisfy" with 4.3% and able to hold until maturity (5 years or 10 years), 99% of the invested money won't be needed in this tenure.
2) Part of asset diversification as fixed income instrument. Having too much reit, equities also not good especially at current valuation.
3) Hedge against big fall in equities market or low interest rate.

Singtel dividend yield is tempting, but a bit worry prospect of it...

I don't think it is categorized as "crazy fall".
But more about worry about its long term future.

Even in Malaysia, telcos share price are also in the same trend, high dividend yield, but price stagnant and sliding slowly over the long term.

Voice business - sunset business, shrinking as time goes.
Broadband - people will use more data, but subscription fee is trending to cheaper side.

While telcos constantly may need capex to catch up the newest technology, 3G -> 4G ->5G.

So market doesn't expect big surprise jump in profit for telcos generally, hence lackluster share price.

The only positive side is its attractive yield, but will it able to compensate the sliding share price?
A big question mark here.

I do admit Singtel yield is quite tempting at current level.

Sg raised additional buyer stamp duty on property and tighten LTV to cool down the real estate market, property stocks are hardest hit, many drops more than 10%.