Ya bro. Another 2 more 75bp rate rise by the Fed will mean 4.75 to 5% p.a. fed fund rate in December. Assume 50bp spread behind US rate due to appreciating SGD, you may see 4.5% p.a. for 6M SG T-bill by the end of this year.

YES bro, ... better than MYR FD today,... means even if it's expensive to convert into the SGD, you will earn back from a good SGD fixed income return.

Bro,... this also means those money is locked-up for the next 6m to 1yr and will not be able to take advantage of better rates after MAS tightening this morning.

Actually rates won't be better by a lot. Strong SGD/USD means the treasury bill rates will be slightly lower than US comparatively. There is an inverse relationship between currency and interest rates.

But ya you are right that dry powder is finite, maybe can skip the next few weeks T-bills, or bid closer to US rates to safeguard myself from kiasu kiasi low bidders in SG.

(Some fellas on HWZ actually bid 0.01%..., hopefully it's just a troll.)

FRankly,.. nobody knows where the bottom is,... only way to do is to buy when one 'feels like it',.. and of course, must buy selectively.

REcently,... I averaged-up on DBS, at 33.25 and at 33.03. Then it plunged to a low of 32.xx yesterday,...

But rose up again today,... what else to do ?

I also bought-in to KIT at 0.5300 yesterday,... thot the price was good,... then the price dipped to 0.525,.... it's okay,... I'm waiting for the EFR to come.

Hence, must buy selectively !

BT 141022: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1L-ed1yOjtL...iew?usp=sharing

Ya, thanks to your tips, just started with 6M T-bills @ 3.3% p.a. 2~3 weeks back. If it hits 4.5% p.a. can consider lock in 1-yr.

Yes, only started converting since last month seeing how MYR has been depreciating against SGD lately... Also planning to buy some S-REITs which are "on sale" now due to high interest rates.

Glad my comment has helped you, bro,...

Emm,... don't lock-up your funds. If you lock-in for one year, the moment inflation has peaked in SG, you need to deploy FASTER into SREITs before the prices runaway. I heard from some chat groups yesterday that SG inflation has peaked.

You lock-in if you think the yields have peaked and can't go higher. But if the Fed still wants to do it the "Volcker style" and inflation couldn't ease, you may lose some opportunities for higher yields during the 1-year period. At least that's what I read from BT yesterday (see my post above).

Which chat group is that? Can I join? Or it is just for lawyers only?

Bro, by the time the yields have peaked, the SREITs and tech shares would have started to run-up. You still want to lock-up your funds in some 'low-return' bonds ? Better pour into equities already.

Ya that's correct, but the problem is we don't know when the yields would have peaked. And there might be some delays between run-up and yield peaking if the crisis and market stress drag on for some time.

Just my 2 cents, as long as harmonics3 manage his cash flow well liquidity shouldn't be an issue I think.

We watched the numbers too,... since Feds also watching numbers,....then we atsart guessing when we think the numbers are beginning to peak. Mkts are highly fwd-looking today,... there will be no delay. Mkts would have tried to move first before we started to decide the numbers have peaked.

Investors have learnt from the 2020 V-shaped recovery. There is no chance to go in at low when the mkts suddenly started to run-up !

Deleted,...

This post has been edited by Hansel: Oct 15 2022, 03:50 PM

BT Weekend 15-161022: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1cJpibpUmF9...iew?usp=sharing



Wow January 2023 may have an off-cycle tightening. Good to see the NEER slope expected to be steepened.

What is your bid for the 27 Oct auction?

Good evening bro. You got CDP account as well?

It is still early to tell the yield almost 2 weeks later. A lot of things could have happened in between.

My bid depends on a few factors:

1. Chief among them: The US 6 month US yield at that day (or just a few hours ago)
2. Shorter term 4-week and 12-week MAS bill yields, and 1 year yield, just to know the yield curve shape and what institutions are thinking in the short-term (from MAS bill auction stats)
3. The USD/SGD rate movement for the previous few days.
4. The "announced" bid from HWZ kiasu kiasi members https://forums.hardwarezone.com.sg/threads/...769601/page-269

I will post my bid yield here on 26th Oct when I submit my bid. But I don't have any crystal ball so don't take my forecast seriously at all.

Yes i do have cdp acc but i only buy SSB all this while as it is more flexible.

I plan to go for T bill for the first time. Think i will just go for the non-comp. I will put less on 27 Oct auction as US is most likely to raise rates again on 1-2 Nov. Maybe the yield will go higher again on 10 Nov auction.

Ah nice. Now we have 5 people with CDP (as far as I know).

You, me, Hansel, harmonics3, sgh

You are right that SSB is more flexible with the redemption feature. Beware of the 2 SGD charge for purchase and another 2 SGD for redemption.

Did you buy SSB/T-bills using cash or SRS or from your CPF OA? Their methods differ from one another.

If you put non-comp you will be at the mercy of those who submit competitive bid and you will have to accept the yields even if you wanted something higher.

So a competitive bid can be "insurance" for some (many actually...)

But ok lah, for newbies or those who don't know how to bid, non-comp for a start is ok.

This post has been edited by TOS: Oct 16 2022, 11:51 PM

I only buy using cash as i dont have CPF account.

Yes i do know the sgd2 charge as i have been redeeming the previous months SSB and buy the most recent ones.

However when the ssb rates are high then the allocation is so small. Example i only got 9k for the Aug issue and 13k for the Sep issue.

By switching to T bill i can allocate more funds into it. Anyway i will also apply the sSB Nov issue. I guess the allocation maybe 10k or less.

TOS, how do you apply for T-Bills? Through DBS Internet Banking website?

Thank you for your clarification.