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 SGX Counters, Discussion on Counters in the SGX

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TSHansel
post Nov 3 2015, 05:16 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Oct 16 2015, 04:52 PM)
Hi,...if Silverlake has not settled the accounting issues yet, then it is a good time to do some trading now and take some profits while awaiting further. However, if the acct'g issues are settled via a report from the independent auditors appointed by Silverlake, then I believed the price of this counter would go up nearer to 90 cents. I have not followed this counter very much,... when is the independent auditor due to release the report of its findings ?

The thing that caught my eye about Silverlake was its recurring income stream after a software package has been sold, or an upgrade has been completed for a banking customer. Many large financial organizations in South East Asia use their software solutions.
Since I am looking closely at Silverlake Axis too,I would like to reflect on the above posting that I made back in October 16, 2016. SAL held its AGM on October 26th., and one of the attendees provided the feedback as below on his observation at the AGM :-

I had to leave after 2 hrs of shareholders questioning the board on various resolutions. Generally, the points summarized as follow:

1. Shareholder question about razor99 short sell report.
2. Board appointed Deloitte to investigate report and the results were not out before AGM.
3. Understandably some shareholders did not find it fit that queries were not being addressed which forms the basis of the financial report. (technicality: I believe the resolution is to accept the accuracy financial report numbers rather than the integrity of the company and its financials. YMMV)
4. Many going back and forth. Chairman kept highlighting that he need to spend lots of time to explain details and that there is a system/professionals that should be respected.
5. Imo my feel is that the board should have prepared shareholders with very clear disclaimers beforehand and handled situation better. Noted that newly appointed director munir did eventually say that in his own capacity, he is not aware of any corruption by silverlake during his previous tenure in related banking.
6. Also felt that there were some queries that the board could not keep addressing without getting into trouble.. Unfortunately for the board, their words hold more liability in public space than the shareholders.

-------------------------------------------------

Above highlighted sentence puts a lot of doubts in investors' mind.




TSHansel
post Nov 4 2015, 11:39 AM

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How credible is the following study conducted by The Legatum Institute ? If it is credible enough, and Sgp can sustain this performance, then we should consider ourselves fortunate to be situated so close to this great island-state.

Invest all the way into Sgp, if we are of the view that this is true. Our retirement funds investment haven....

The 2015 Legatum Prosperity Index, a project by the Legatum Institute that annually ranks countries’ prosperity based on income and wellbeing, has placed Singapore at the top of its Economy sub-index. The country has climbed one place higher each year in the Economy sub-index since it ranked third in 2013. Singapore beat 142 other countries such as Switzerland, which held the spot last year and is now 2nd, and China, which is 3rd.

Link : http://sbr.com.sg/economy/news/singapore-b...conomy-in-world

Edited by adding : Of course, when something is good, there will be contenders and people fighting for that thing. A very good case here is : First REIT. The Indonesian Gov't sees that first REIT can do well in Sgp, hence they are trying to replicate this in their slowing economy.

Investors in Sgp will hold the price up,... if First REIT wishes to delist and shift, then they should compensate investors well enough for this good counter. Not just give us back 15% above nav,.....

What is fair ?????????? smile.gif

This post has been edited by Hansel: Nov 4 2015, 11:44 AM
TSHansel
post Nov 4 2015, 06:24 PM

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Just came across the fact that another favourite counter of mine, namely Singpost, has announced results om Nov 2nd, ie two days ago. Missed the result ann't...

Dividend for the second quarter of FY2015 has increased from 1.25 cts per share to 1.50 cts per share. Being an Sgp-based entity, headquartered in Sgp with assets in many parts of Asia Pacific, there is a very slim chance that the management will 'shift' the listing to another bourse besides the SGX.
TSHansel
post Nov 11 2015, 07:36 PM

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QUOTE(elea88 @ Nov 9 2015, 07:47 PM)
after sale of FIRST REIT, what u getting?

JUMBO?.... Food items recession proof.. haha
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I'm still watching Frasers Centrepoint Trust and Keppel Corp. Keppel DC REIT is a 'boutique' REIT that I'm looking at too. It came out in the Business Times last week that the non-traditional REITs are slowly finding their ways into the SGX.

Perhaps investors should have a look at non-traditional, boutique REITs too.
TSHansel
post Nov 11 2015, 07:37 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Nov 9 2015, 10:46 PM)
no jumbo, that was for fun. biggrin.gif
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If you like Food Junction, you can use the same methodology to analyse Jumbo.
TSHansel
post Nov 11 2015, 08:28 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Nov 11 2015, 08:03 PM)
i reserved my last bullets for Keppel DC.

will see if i get the chance...
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What are your opinions of KDC ? smile.gif
TSHansel
post Nov 11 2015, 08:34 PM

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QUOTE(Vector88 @ Nov 11 2015, 08:28 PM)
I like keppel DC too and hence vested. Data center demand will have healthy growth thanks to exponential growth in internet and cloud computing...

Keppel DC price didn't move much in recent market rout...
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The biggest challenge for KDC REIT is forex risks. Many of the assets are overseas, except for the USA. The SGD, being such a strong currency is now seen to be disadvantageous to REIT investors when it comes to rental collection, unless the rental is TO BE COLLECTED in the SGD, or even partially denoted in the SGD, like First REIT.

Unfortunately, since the days of First REIT's IPO, investors have NOT MANAGED to influence for rentals to be collected in the SGD anymore. The magic could only work once, and that was with First REIT.
TSHansel
post Nov 11 2015, 08:53 PM

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Thanks gents,.. okay, I have this to say about the price being below the nav.

Sometimes, it does not really mean that a REIT or a stock is worthy to buy if the price is below its nav. Experience tells me that if a REIT or a stock cannot get its price above nav, there are reasons for this. One possibility is because the REIT or stock is not good enough, that's why the mkt does not accord the proper price to the counter.

On the other hand, if a ctr has its price being above its nav, the reason could be because it is good enough to be there, and the mkt is willing to buy it at the higher price. But of course, certainly 20% is a bit too high-lar,...

The concept of : good things not cheap and cheap things not good is applicable to REIT units and stocks too.
TSHansel
post Nov 11 2015, 09:18 PM

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QUOTE(Vector88 @ Nov 11 2015, 09:02 PM)
On this NAV thing, Keppel Dc reit is still in growing phase, meaning it will grow its asset via acquisitions. So NAV will go up sooner or later right? So probably market is anticipating this and hence willing to pay premium above its CURRENT NAV ?
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Right,... the mkt could be pricing in the fact that this REIT is worth 20% more than its current nav, because of this positive fact that its nav will go up after more asset purchases. This is a very big positive sign.

On the dpu and the forex risk, I guessed the most impt thing is the yield. After factoring-in an increase in the dpu and a 'damaging' effect from the powerful Sing Dollar, let's see what yield will it arrive at.

Some news about SREITs in general... for your reading pleasure :-

REITs roll out desperate tactics to drive growth in tough times Check out these interesting trends seen in Q3.

REITs are struggling to keep investors happy as growth slows. A report by Barclays highlighted some tactics that REIT managers have used to keep their results solid in Q3. Barclays noted that more REITs are embarking on acquisitions to diversify their portfolios, particularly in light of the cooling domestic property market. For instance, AREIT embarked on an acquisition spree in Australia, while MLT has also snapped up properties in Australia and Vietnam.

More REITs are also propping up their falling dividends with divestment gains, such as KREIT and Suntec.

Lastly, REITs are turning to issuing perpetual securities to reduce their gearing after the MAS imposed a single-tier leverage limit of 45% in July, such as KREIT and AREIT.

“Our quarterly scorecard shows industrial REITs in general performing better than expected with average DPU rising 5% y/y and 1% q/q, helped by a positive policy change. Office REITs continued to show signs of cracks. While Fed rate hikes remain an overhang for SREITs, valuations don’t look expensive,” said Barclays.
TSHansel
post Nov 13 2015, 10:17 AM

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This morning,...

1) FCT has dipped further to 1.890.

2) Keppel Corp has dipped further to 6.810.

3) OCBC dipped to 8.920.

4) Keppel DC REIT stayed at 1.040.

Steady,...hold your fire....
TSHansel
post Nov 13 2015, 10:50 AM

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QUOTE(yck1987 @ Nov 13 2015, 10:29 AM)
I'm holding my reserve bullet too. Please give a shout when the right timing approaching.  unsure.gif
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biggrin.gif Will try my best TO TIME,...but don't blame me if I got it a bit wrong,.. smile.gif
TSHansel
post Nov 17 2015, 09:24 AM

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Good morning, apologies for the silence. The SG mkt has more to drop,... if wishes to nibble, I think should start around December.

Well,... I know that it's not possible to time the mkt, but I'm kinda like applying my experience from the 2007/8 plunge. I bought-in a bit early too back in 2008.


TSHansel
post Nov 17 2015, 09:33 AM

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Back in 2009/9, looking at hindsight, I bought in too early,... immediately when everything started going down, I bought-in. Then Enron collapsed, followed by Lehman, and I kept buying-in at each point as the mkt dropped.

So,... this time, I'll just be patient first.

Edited by adding : I'm not waiting for a collapse like Lehman to take place,... this is too far-fetched to predict, but at least I will look at the metrics which govern the SGX and the weightage of each metrics as they weaken everyday. The higher the weightage of a metric that dropped, the closer it is to the bottom.

This post has been edited by Hansel: Nov 17 2015, 09:36 AM
TSHansel
post Nov 18 2015, 05:07 PM

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Dropped again today - Keppel Corp at 6.69 low....Steady...
TSHansel
post Nov 18 2015, 06:25 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Nov 18 2015, 05:21 PM)
i've been waiting for singtel to go to 3.60.

no chance, so far...
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hmm.gif Singtel is a Utility Counter,...hard to say,...
TSHansel
post Nov 19 2015, 08:51 PM

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First REIT rose to 1.19 today after it announced an acquisition. However,........the acquisition comprises one hospital and one plaza. The question becomes why is the plaza lumped into First REIT too...

The plaza should have been sold to Lippo Maple Indo Retail Trust. Is everything being lumped into First REIT in preparation for delisting...
TSHansel
post Nov 23 2015, 08:53 PM

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A good read to guard against a Fed rate hike - https://secure.fundsupermart.com/main/artic...--11050?lang=en


TSHansel
post Nov 23 2015, 09:18 PM

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QUOTE(yck1987 @ Nov 23 2015, 09:04 PM)
Pls enlighten Banking stocks are value buy now ?  tempted to get one or two of them ..
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I think the three Sgp banks will be affected by a heavy knee-jerk reaction when the Feds starts the hike. It is a natural reaction from big institutions, and Sgp banks are certainly big institutions.

The inst investors must selloff, and misprice the mkt. That's the time to go in.
TSHansel
post Nov 24 2015, 09:18 AM

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QUOTE(yck1987 @ Nov 23 2015, 11:14 PM)
When the time FED raise interest rates, I immediately think of benefit sector would be the bank as bank can make more profit on charging higher interest from borrower and directly increase the yield on cash. My thought was isn't it bank like higher interest?  hmm.gif

Or in fact, rising rates may hurt bank interest margins/profits. One reason is that, as the “cost” of money goes up, a fixed-rate, long-term loan locked in when rates were lower is now less profitable. So if Fed-mandated short rates move up faster than market-driven long rates, interest margins get squeezed.

Which one is correct?
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Both of your first two paras above will contribute to the list of possible benefits and threats to the Sgp banks when the Feds raise interest rates. The net effects will be felt down the road. At the point when the Feds confirm raising, the Sgp banks will trend down and provide us a window of opportunity to buy.

The prb is how long the window is, before it closes. Then the price will trend upwards.

TSHansel
post Nov 24 2015, 09:20 AM

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For those aiming for Keppel Corp, folloiwng is a news worth reading :-

image: http://media.corporate-ir.net/media_files/...ogoNewEmail.gif

Baker Hughes Incorporated has posted Weekly Rig Count reports to its Investor Relations website.

BHI Rig Count: U.S. -10 to 757 rigs

U.S. Rig Count is down 10 rigs from last week to 757, with oil rigs down 10 to 564, and gas rigs unchanged at 193.

U.S. Rig Count is down 1,172 rigs from last year at 1,929, with oil rigs down 1,010, and gas rigs down 162.


The U.S. Offshore rig count is 30, down 3 rigs from last week, and down 23 rigs year over year.


BHI Rig Count: Canada -10 at 166 rigs

Canadian Rig Count is down 10 rigs from last week to 166, with oil rigs down 1 to 67, and gas rigs down 9 to 99.

Canadian Rig Count is down 268 rigs from last year at 434, with oil rigs down 176, and gas rigs down 92.

Due to the Thanksgiving holiday schedule, the next North American rig count will be published on November 25, 2015 at 1 p.m. ET.

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