Keppel Infra Trust was formerly known as CitySpring Infrastructure Trust. This was the first trust that I invested in when I first started in the Singapore REITs sector many years ago. I invested into KIT (or CIT) when CIT first IPO'ed.

There were many problems. The unit price dropped, when I attended the AGM and asked questions, the CFO acted more like a lawyer than the board of directors explaining thing to the shareholders, etc,...

The unit price dropped badly, and the DPU was also reduced. I thought the trust was delisted till I heard recently that the Keppel Group bought it over.

Out of personal experience, I think I'll stay away from KIT (or CIT) for the time being, until I see clearer pictures ahead.

Lol,... I still remembered,... back then, we were always debating whether a REIT having zero or negative earnings per unit was able to give out dividends in a safe and consistent manner. CIT management was ALWAYS ADVOCATING that for a trust, the most important thing was cashflow, AND NOT earnings. Hence, having zero earnings was FINE for a REIT,.... The management was always saying it's all in the accounting treatment.

The unit price never appreciated and dropped all the way. I'm surprised that the Keppel group finally absorbed this trust into its family.

Managed to secure quite some lots of Keppel Corp today. Caught the lots at 7.24, the lowest price for today.

Edited by adding : I wouldn't be surprised if the earnings per unit today is near to zero or in the negative region. The rentals they collected could never yield net property income, I really haven't really studied why,.. but I think it's because of the characteristics of the assets that they hold.

This post has been edited by Hansel: Oct 19 2015, 07:17 PM

Frasers Centrepoint Trust :-

Quarterly report was released yesterday morning. In short, all metric were up, the DPU was higher compared to the same period last year and the suburban malls are looking good. Yield at current price = 7.18%.

Keppel Corp :-

Quarterly report was also released yesterday. All metrics were down, collection problem from a client in Brazil but still highly motivated. The price opened at 7.40 today, surprisingly, then dropped back to the lowest of 7.19. Couldn't catch any at 7.19 though, so bought at 7.25. Yield at current price = 6.62%. Still believed Keppel will come back.

Same here,...however drilling deeper down into the data, the only slight worrying matter pertaining to this trust is that Bedok Point may not perform, as seen from the data tables. The Occupancy Rate seems to be trending down in the three previous quarters, and rental revesion percentage is negative, which means the average rental collected has dropped compared to the figure from the leases signed three years ago. All the other five malls have postiverental reversions. Bedok Point seems to be dragging down the average figure...

Edited by adding : yeah,... forgot to add, Frasers Centrepoint Trust (FCT) also owns Hektar REIT of Msia. majority shareholder position, I think,... saw the holding position at Hektar REIT of 44%, opened to correction,...

If anything happens to Hektar REIT, it may drag FCT down with it,...

Are you keen on a good big-cap counter which has a good yiled at present ?

This post has been edited by Hansel: Oct 25 2015, 03:39 PM

At this point in time, I spotted Keppel Corporation, BN4. Share price has been depressed because of oil price problems affecting their Offshore & Marine business segment. The management has taken this opportunity to right-size, and to streamline their operations.

What I like about their web presentation is when they said this : Throughout history, Keppel Corp has always survived through all economic cycles, and have always come out to be in better shape after the cycle has ended.

I love the way they do their reporting, via webcasts. What are your opinions ?

You are welcome,... awaiting your opinions,....

After almost one week since Keppel Corp reported her earnings, the mkt lost some faith on the words by the BOD. This is reflected by the drop in the share price to a low of $7.17 this morning.

In the meantime, crude price has dropped to USD43.30/bbl.

On my side. I wouldn't mind if Keppel's price drops till below $7.00.

Frasers Centrepoint Trust (FCT) stays at $2.00 and above for yesterday and today,... what that is worth noting is that FCT will begin its Asset Enhance Initiative on one of its malls, namely NOrthpoint Mall from March 2016.

The ROI record for FCT's AEI activities has been acceptable. I will be watching closely for the announced ROI target from the management for this AEI.

' QUOTE(cherroy @ Oct 28 2015, 08:35 AM)

I don't think oil price will stay low forever.

The further sliding down of oil price from current level, will "destruct" a lot of capital investment which could mean supply destruction for longer term future.

1-2 years staying low, highly possible, but don't think so for more than 5-7 years time frame.

It could be the repeating history of oil price during end of 1990's era, whereby oil price went nearly USD10/barrel, which if looked back, was the reason why there was super bull run of oil price 5-7 years later on.

*
it has been a year now.

not forever, not even 5 yrs - too far to see anything.

but <usd50 for another 2 yrs is likely.

world economic growth forecast slashed, slow china, slow europe.

drought, elnino, smog affecting se asia productivity, australian growth.
http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/malaysi...ity-says-report
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/201...-up-heat-on-rba

oil storage very full, tankers idling at sea, q'in at ports, china big stockpiles.

no big "oil consumption engine".

the damage done is severe - loss of jobs, little capex now spent, oil/oil service cos. consolidating...

effect will be serious and long lasting.


i will not put my money on oil/energy at this time, local or foreign. more pain to come, imo.'

Based on the above comments by Cherroy and AVFAN from the other thread, we can see the sentiment is really causing Keppel Corp to drop further yeaterday (though holding at a low of 7.13 till now this morning).

I will remain steady,.... and stalking patiently to go in. This is the time to see how will Keppel's other businesses will do their part to offset the decline in their Offshore and Marine Business Segment.

Hi,... it looks like Keppel Corp has more to drop. I'll hold my bullets for now. In the meantime, Keppel has announced this evening that it has completed delivery for one unit of FELS rig for an entity in Saudi Arabia. This is one good piece of news.

Tq nexona,... this is news indeed. I wonder what the mechanism for the 'shift' would be. Is it to delist from the SGX followed by an IPO in the Jakarta Stock Exchange (JSE) ? Then the currency of holding will shift from the SGD to the Indonesian Rupiah...

If dual listing, then the hospital properties will be divided among the two REITs. DPU will be divided out... Either way, it 's not very good news for unitholders.

First REIT, SGX - AW9U :-

1) On Wednesday, October 28th., 2015, the following news came out from Reuters:-

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/10/28/...N11900V20151028

AW9U closed at $1.32 on the same day.

2) On Thursday, October 29th., 2015, AW9U opened at 1.32, dropped all the way to 1.20, then recovered to 1.24, and closed at 1.24. On the same day, the following news were disclosed to the SGX :-

http://infopub.sgx.com/FileOpen/First%20RE...t&FileID=375486

In short : the Manager of First REIT said : As at the date of this announcement, the Manager is not aware and has not been informed by First REIT's sponsor, PT Lippo Karawaci Tbk (the “Sponsor”) of the Sponsor’s plans as set out in the Article.

http://lmir.listedcompany.com/newsroom/201...WE3MLHCE8.1.pdf

In short : the Manager of Lippo Malls Indonesia Trust said : the Manager is not aware and has not been informed by the sponsor on their plans to shift.

3) Today, October 30th., 2015, AW9U opened at 1.205, dropped till 1.15, recovered to 1.18 as of NOW.

No official disclosures to the regulators yet by Fisr REIT nor by LMIRT till now. Questions posed to the IR have not been replied to yet till now.

Comments :-

1) What is the REIT regulations available in the JSE that may cater for these two REITs if they should decide to shift over ?

2) The Reuters report said : Indonesia's government last week announced incentives aimed at getting companies to create REITs by removing double taxation that may apply to such businesses.

The incentives were announced last week. Does this mean the implementation of the incentives would materialise ?

3) In a related report by the Edge :-

http://www.thestar.com.my/Business/Busines...esia/?style=biz

Mr James Riady said : "Because of the government policy, we think Indonesia has very good potential for REITs,".

He did not mention that he will shift the two currently existing REITs to the JSE. He may be thinking about setting-up new REITs for his other properties in Indonesia.

4) Will any CEO intentionally kill a productive golden goose and then try to raise another one at another place ?

5) The SGX is experienced in the running of REITs with an established REIT market, has great incentives, has the largest REIT market in Asia ex-Japan, has international investors coming to invest in her REITs, and has great currency..

The JSE promises to give to give better tax incentives in order to spur up their REIT market.

Perhaps Indonesian property developers who have no external REIT presence may want to capitalise on this new incentive scheme in the JSE, to try it out and to hope that everything turns out well. But again, to kill a golden goose from another place and try out in a less-developed environment ?

Edited to correct grammar errors...

This post has been edited by Hansel: Oct 30 2015, 12:45 PM

Recovered today from noon to ard $1.25, then closed at $1.24. Let's see what ann'ts appear from AW9U and LMIRT on Monday, November 02, if any.

Steady.

Hi AV,... agreed. With my analyses in-place, let's see what happens. Reactions in the coming days and weeks from the SG market as a whole and the worldwide investors of First REIT will give a clearer picture of what's coming.

Steady,...

Gents,... somebody has already asked the IR on both managers what material find did they discover upon checking with the sponsor, pursuant to the statements quoted by Reuters against the sponsor's CEO.

Sure, the managers said they are not aware, but pursuant to one of the Listing Regulations, something of this nature, which highly affects the trading of units in the exchange requires a response from the issuer. THIS IS SINGAPORE, we can do our part here, transparency is the utmost quality.

We are now awaiting replies from IR on how their sponsor is replying to them.

Edited by adding the second para above.

This post has been edited by Hansel: Oct 30 2015, 11:42 PM

I'm sorry,... I have not counted yet,... I have got my hands full with Saizen REIT and First REIT.

On a very broad-based strategy, I would say the move now should be to hold back our purchases. The Feds are hinting again of a rate hike in mid-December - the mkt will look at this and chances are it will drop further. At this time, for whatever funds we have available, out it into Sgp FD first.

Accumulate bullets, 'when the prices have dropped sufficiently', then buy-up the targetted counters.

If we can enter at a good price, even if the dividend drops, the yield will still be acceptable.

For Saizen,.. , however, I am not really happy to make this type of money. For after making this money, I have to start all over again to look for another instrument to maintain my passive income. I have to do my studying again.

First REIT - don't move too fast,... watch first. One mkt observer this morning said that it is not easy for First REIT to simply just delist from the SG mkt and run away. He is not talking about the mechanics of delisting, but more towards the commitments that FR has put in-place, eg the SGD-denom rental payments from the Indonesian hospitals to the managers in Sgp.

I heard Ms Yellen is giving a presentation to a US Govern't economic committee on Wednesday, US Time. More hints to come from there.

As we speak, the following SGX counters have dipped further :-

1) OCBC Bank
2) Keppel Corp
3) Frasers Centrepoint Trust
4) Keppel DC REIT

The following SGX counters have stayed their course :-

1)AimsAmp Capital REIT
2)IREIT Global

Down they go,...hopefully,...

Edited to correct information...

This post has been edited by Hansel: Nov 2 2015, 02:30 PM

We are not shorting the mkt, but we are encouraging the shorting of the mkt.