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 SGX Counters, Discussion on Counters in the SGX

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TSHansel
post Nov 11 2022, 09:37 AM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Nov 11 2022, 08:06 AM)
laugh.gif and I thought u were giving tipsy here... tongue.gif
the big money question is how much money Temask had plundered into FTX.  cool2.gif
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I'm watching too,... in one article I saw, Temasek invested into their Series 3 and 4 Funds. Total 1.2 Billion USD ! And after Binance said they're willing to takeover FTX, Temasek initiated discussions with FTX. Then one day later, Binance said too many problems inside FTX which they have no ctrl,....

And,........

Temasek has not said anything... yet,... Maybe Temasek may help ?
TSHansel
post Nov 11 2022, 09:48 AM

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QUOTE(Cubalagi @ Nov 11 2022, 07:30 AM)
Wah..Im seeing 3.40 exchange rate this morning ..
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Actually,... for SG REIT investors,... it's not really good for the SGD to strengthen too much. The dpu amt will fall because SG REITs collect rents from all over the world. My Sg friends confirmed this too.

But for us Msians,... then yeah,... since we spend in the Ringgit, we will benefit when we convert back,... till the day they start taxing on our funds being remitted back.

For Spending Overseas - YES,............. holding the SGD to convert will be beneficial for EVERYBODY, Singaporeans and Msians alike,... and for EVERYBODY in this world holding the Singaore Dollar.

Anyway,... the SGD might fall soon, in tandem with the USD if the Feds decides to do something else then continuing to raise rates aggrssively. Let's see how much will the MYR 'appreciates' compared to both. But I don't think can bounce back to pre-pandemic levels.

On my side,.. I'd prefer the SGD to fall a bit too,... this will allow me to convert more of my Ringgit out,... and to let my SG REIT dpu amt increase back.

Just sharing,...

This post has been edited by Hansel: Nov 11 2022, 10:16 AM
TSHansel
post Nov 11 2022, 12:51 PM

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QUOTE(Cubalagi @ Nov 11 2022, 10:16 AM)
For me, SG Bond is the biggest position in my portfolio, very little SG Reits atm. So yeah, I prefer SGD to mantain at this level.

With the weak MYR, Im actually buying some MReits with my excess MYR.
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Ok,... but if the SGD does weaken, yuor bond price will go up, though by not a lot,... wouldn't this be more profitable converting a strong SGD over to MYR and invest into Msian REITs which tax at 10% onto the dpu payout ?

Secondly,... if you invest into Msian REITs, you are effectively investing in the MYR, a weakening currency... longterm....
TSHansel
post Nov 27 2022, 09:29 AM

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QUOTE(TOS @ Nov 25 2022, 02:43 PM)
STRONG warning for Azalea bond holders. This will appear in FT tomorrow. But just in case you want to sell your Astrea bonds today.

https://www.ft.com/content/e4c4fd61-341e-4f...46-796fc3bdcb03

Capital markets

Collateralised fund obligations: How private equity securitised itself
Stakes in hundreds of buyout groups’ companies have been bundled into investments with strong credit ratings

by Kaye Wiggins in London (2 HOURS AGO)

» Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... «

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At times like now,... we out our confidence into the capability of Temasek to shield us from such risks. We can't know everything,... and couldn't understand the mechanics of how everything evolves. But still,... we have to invest with adequate returns.

We will trust in Temasek and in the SG Govt today for this portion of our portfolio,...
TSHansel
post Nov 27 2022, 11:34 AM

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QUOTE(Cubalagi @ Nov 27 2022, 10:21 AM)
For past 1 month, SG Govt bond index is up about 3%, which interestingly is about the same as MYR-SGD move. So in MYR terms, my SG bond portfolio is unchanged in the last month.

But lucky also I didnt convert any MYR to SGD at the peak.
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I think, no need to flip here and there-lar,... just focus on one place/jurisdiction,... and go with that,... I picked SG,...

I know that with the appointment of DSAI,... the MYR has strengthened in the last few days,... and the Bursa has risen.

Frnakly,... I already knew the MYR will bounce back, no doubt abt that,... the key now is : how much will it strengthen ? Will it reach back to 3.05 which was the level pre-pandemic ? How much can the MYR recover,... we need to watch this,....
TSHansel
post Nov 27 2022, 11:37 AM

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QUOTE(TOS @ Nov 27 2022, 10:09 AM)
I don't buy into that bro. It is long-known that institutions always bully retail investors. For one, Astrea CFOs are marketed with asymmetric focus on the upside, and light touch on the downside. You can guess why the issues are called "PE bonds" and not "CFOs". They can't sell anything if the name begins with a C and ends with an O. laugh.gif   

A portfolio of junk investments are still junk. Moody's clearly didn't learn from their failure in rating CDOs in 2008. Still naively thinking that "diversification" makes the portfolio stronger. When crisis happens and systemic risk sets in, you will see the ratings downgraded rapidly, just like what happened to CDOs in the even of the 2008 crisis.

Cynics claim that Temasek wants to improve their return metrics, so they repackage those subpar investments into "bonds", i.e. CFOs and offload them to retail investors since they can't find any buyer in the institutional space. In reality, the bonds will have to command significant risk premium above risk-free yields. 

I check the yields today. The Astrea 7 ones are still trading at par. 4.125% p.a. (Class-A) and 6% p.a. (Class-B) in respective currenies. For comparison, similar 10-year maturity BB+/BBB- rated high yield USD issues currently yield 8.3-8.5% p.a. https://www.bondsupermart.com/bsm/bond-selector

Your risk is not adequately compensated. All these A+ and BBB+ are nothing more than financial engineering... Now risk-free rates are rising, I am waiting to see the deterioration of credit metrics in Astrea CFOs' interim and annual report.
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Cheng hu won't pity you lah...  wink.gif I don't expect Temasek will bear the "moral hazard" responsibility. Things have been stipulated in the 386-page long prospectus. Temasek knows well you won't flip through all 386 pages. smile.gif

Anyway, cheers bro. Have fun in Japan.
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Thank you for the long write-up and the infos, bro,... I'll read the above slowly,... my mind is a bit cloudy now,... many things to do here,....
TSHansel
post Nov 30 2022, 12:19 AM

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QUOTE(TOS @ Nov 29 2022, 07:51 PM)
That's the risk of investing. As long as your portfolio is diversifed in various aspects (geography, industry/sector, asset class etc.) you should be fine.

----------------------------

For those with Astrea VII B-tranche bonds, your first semiannual distribution should be credited to your designated, CDP-linked bank account this morning (for DBS, around 9.30 am, according to HWZ source).

The CCY USD.SGD rate was quoted to be 1.3634991. If you checked this morning's (9 am GMT +8) USD.SGD rate, it's around 1.3790, so that's a spread of around 1.1%, confirming another source I posted 6 month ago on HSBC's conversion rate sourced from another forum. https://forum.lowyat.net/index.php?showtopi...#entry104722304

SGD appreciated later in the afternoon (SG/MY/HK time today) and the spread measured with 12.38 pm GMT +8's number (1.3744) would thus reduce to 0.8% as quoted by the poster in the link below.

Source: https://forums.hardwarezone.com.sg/threads/...#post-145028914
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At worst case, I'll just hold my Astrea Bonds till maturity. This will be safe,... unless you are saying that the Astrea co will default and couldn't pay us back when the time comes.

The SGD 'bounces' up and down vs the USD,... so, it's okay for me. Or I can make arrangements to receive my semi-annual distribtion in the USD.
TSHansel
post Dec 21 2022, 12:47 PM

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QUOTE(TOS @ Dec 21 2022, 11:59 AM)
BT 201222: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1Flk3ThM7mj...?usp=share_link

» Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... «


Astrea bondholders beware. Cross-posted with IBKR thread.
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Thank you, bro,...

Emm,... how close would you relate these 'creative debt deals' to PE, or specifically,... PE Funds, bro ?
TSHansel
post Dec 22 2022, 07:05 PM

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QUOTE(TOS @ Dec 22 2022, 01:02 PM)
I don't know any insiders from the PE field, so can't tell how dark things are inside.

But you probably know leverage is part and parcel of PE, especially in the post-crisis era when interest rates are very low. Equity usually account for only 20-30% of of a typical leveraged transaction. The rest are various "tranches of debt".

Now that risk-free rates are no longer next to 0, PE general partners won't sit and wait for valuations to come down to Earth. That's where "creative" financial engineering comes to play as shown in the article.

Eventually, those securities will be pushed to retail investors who don't understand the complexity of "structured" products or blindsided by the glorious "A+" rating given by (one of) the Big 3 credit rating agencies...

CFOs like Astrea bonds are one such product... The "bonds" are redeemed at par in the past because there's ample liquidity in the market allowing for PE exit. Things won't be so straightforward these days. 

Source: The Private Equity Toolkit: A Step-by-Step Guide to Getting Deals Done from Sourcing to Exit (PM me if you want to read this book).
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Astrea has a waterfall structure that will assure investors get their money back,... but investors will have to hold till maturity. What that may happen is,... the interest payouts may be affected.
TSHansel
post Jan 17 2023, 09:03 PM

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QUOTE(TOS @ Jan 16 2023, 02:33 PM)
It finally happens.

Private equity

US regulators crack down on private equity securitisation vehicles
Insurers would no longer be allowed to rely on rating agencies’ assessments of collateralised fund obligations

by Kaye Wiggins in London (2 HOURS AGO)
Source: https://www.ft.com/content/b82dca43-9a92-4f...a8-e4245d5cf5f3
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I'm glad I invested into PE via a big conglomerate as Temasek, and not directly into any PE fund as an individual investor. If I invested directly, that fund may run into troubles and my hldgs would be in jeopardy.

But now,... I have Temasek in front of me. ... Let's see what happens to all the Astrea PE Funds moving fwd.
TSHansel
post Jan 19 2023, 05:09 PM

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QUOTE(TOS @ Jan 19 2023, 10:37 AM)
BT 180123: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1MGxgyf_5bQ...?usp=share_link

About 2 weeks ago they say SGD will appreciate against USD, now they changed tune so quickly lol

» Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... «


But it should be good for SGD yields if SGD depreciate, barring CPF money...
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It will be good for SREITs,.....
TSHansel
post Jan 22 2023, 08:55 PM

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Yes,... here's to Wishing all who celebrate here a Happy and Prosperous Year of The Rabbit.
TSHansel
post Feb 28 2023, 08:04 AM

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QUOTE(TOS @ Feb 24 2023, 08:31 AM)
OCBC result: https://links.sgx.com/1.0.0/corporate-annou...2f8826004668dbb

That concludes all 3 major S-banks' result releases.

The huge unrealized valuation lost of Great Eastern due to the mismanaged asset-liability balancing is really funny, consider that OCBC and Great Eastern are well-known firms...

ST Engineering result: https://links.sgx.com/1.0.0/corporate-annou...3d32877aba0a656
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OCBC's dps GREW BY THE BIGGEST percentage vs the other 2 SG banks.

DBS' dps is the most on an absolute basis.

Have not compared the yields on the current cost basis.

Pls correct me in the above if you guys think I counted wrongly,.... did not do a systematic calculation. Just skimmed thru the reports and concluded the above. Holding DBS and OCBC in-hand now.

Average prices : 24.77 and 12.50 respectively.
TSHansel
post Apr 15 2023, 11:55 AM

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QUOTE(TOS @ Apr 14 2023, 10:47 AM)
BT 130423: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1b2QOjs6WP0...?usp=share_link

» Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... «

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I agree with Leslie's views,...
TSHansel
post Aug 28 2023, 10:13 PM

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QUOTE(TOS @ Aug 28 2023, 12:27 PM)
Decided to quick-study this ctr before going to bed,....

1) No borrowings.
2) Dvvi payout ratio went up to 213%.
3) Company paying out divdiends from its cash holdings.
4) Even by doing 3) above, the dps dropped to a low of only 9c per share for Fy23.
5) Think company is running out of cash,... and will soon need to cut dividends again.

Off to bed,... taking United Airlines (codeshared with ANA) flight at 7.15 am tmrw morning, bound for Narita.
TSHansel
post Aug 28 2023, 10:21 PM

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QUOTE(TOS @ Aug 28 2023, 10:17 PM)
Ya I have the same view. The 2 largest source of revenue, US and China are not doing well and the company does not have the luxury to cut its expenditure quicker than the fall in revenue, so it hurts the bottom line.

My biggest concern thus far is that the new deputy CEO/executive director Mr. Kyle Borch appointment may be some sort of nepotism. If that's the case, it will weaken the company in the long run, not unlike what happen to Qualcomm.
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Right,... better go for UMS, bro,... Back a few years ago,... I regretted not buying MIcro-Mechanics because the yield was great, and the sp kept rising. Today,... I put aside my regret.
TSHansel
post Oct 14 2023, 06:26 PM

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QUOTE(TOS @ Oct 13 2023, 08:02 AM)
MAS policy statement:
https://www.mas.gov.sg/news/monetary-policy...atement-13oct23

They will shift to a quarterly MPC statement announcement from next year. The next MPC statement is scheduled for release on 2nd January 2024.
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Read the ann't carefully.
TSHansel
post Oct 16 2023, 01:51 PM

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QUOTE(TOS @ Oct 13 2023, 08:02 AM)
MAS policy statement:
https://www.mas.gov.sg/news/monetary-policy...atement-13oct23

They will shift to a quarterly MPC statement announcement from next year. The next MPC statement is scheduled for release in late January 2024.
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AND the Ann't Date of the January release will be announced on January 2nd., 2023.[SIZE=7]
TSHansel
post Oct 16 2023, 02:00 PM

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QUOTE(TOS @ Oct 16 2023, 01:58 PM)
You mean 2024...
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......yeah,... 2024.
TSHansel
post Oct 27 2023, 07:13 PM

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ST Engineering too,,.....

Thank you to TOS for the consistent updates.

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