BT 280524: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1DHtyDS3LlZ...iew?usp=sharing

BT 290524: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1JL47CYddOK...iew?usp=sharing

Will belanja you makan, with my girlfriend...

SATS results: https://links.sgx.com/1.0.0/corporate-annou...3509566c5666b11

OMG, why did iFAST suddenly issued 300 million SGD worth of perpetual bonds...

https://links.sgx.com/1.0.0/corporate-annou...287157bd20af984

I hate to see my shareholding rights diluted by those creditors... time to sell...

BT 300524: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1QtCb4Usydp...iew?usp=sharing

If the strategic review is successful, you would expect investors to price in growth in earnings...

I see the stock price flat since May 2021, when the "strategic reset" was announced. If you factor in rising interest rates throughout 2022 and 2023, that's a big opportunity cost for shareholders. Back on May 14 2021, it's 2.32 SGD, now it's 6% higher at 2.46 SGD, factor in dividends of 36.4 cents since May 2021's announcement, that's about 15.7% returns since May 2021, giving a total holding-period return of 21.7% = 6.77% p.a. since May 2021.

Benchmark STI closed at 3055.02 on May 14 2021, now it's around 3313.84 = 8.47% price return + dividends of 11.68% since May 2021 (using ES3 ETF dividend data as reference), we get 20.1% = 6.3% p.a. since May 2021. If you factor in the ETF expense, both Singtel and the STI are probably on par...

In short, I don't see any meaningful alpha generated by Singtel management here... I am not expecting NVDA-like stratospheric growth, but at least I should see something inching up on the total return side...

Let's do some more fundamental analysis, uhmm let's look at FCF from Singtel from May 2021:

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/quote/Z74.SI/cash-flow

I see a declining trend from 3.2 billion SGD to 2.4 billion SGD since financial year ending on 31st March 2021. OCF declines faster than Capex over the years since 2021.

Let's look at leverage, all the more important in a "higher for longer" world:

Current debt + long-term debt = 11.9 billion SGD as of FY 31/3/2024, up from 10.65 billion SGD as of FY 31/3/2021. The good news is cash is up a lot from 754.7 million SGD to 4.6 billion SGD...

The problem is with declining FCF, how are they going to service their 12 billion SGD debt going forward? Sell assets means less and less future OCF... And if they just focus on paying out sales proceeds to shareholders, that will barely prop up the stock price as a lot of shitty assets in the past are now realized at a lost, i.e., the bunch of impairments you see...

I see the management is stuck between the pan and the fire...

This post has been edited by TOS: May 30 2024, 01:19 PM

lol some funny retail guy sold Micro-Mechanics for 1.68 SGD a piece just a few minutes ago, resulting in a pop of 8.4% in share price.

4500 shares changed hand at 1.655 just 1-2 minutes before that.



This post has been edited by TOS: May 30 2024, 05:05 PM

BT 310524: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1K6Dt6ZTdCl...iew?usp=sharing

BT Weekend 01-020624: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1M5y2dpDMm0...iew?usp=sharing

BT 030624: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1dG4aM3mJDB...iew?usp=sharing

The first 100 million SGD to be issued is a 5-year corporate bond:

https://links.sgx.com/1.0.0/corporate-annou...587228357ce7638

4.328% p.a.

BT 040624: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1FK5j-33SE4...iew?usp=sharing

SingPost about to go "junk": https://links.sgx.com/FileOpen/SnPResearchU...t&FileID=805703

Dear fellow readers,

I am sorry to inform you that NTU Graduate Hall 1 has decided not to extend my lease and thus I am forced to leave Singapore back to my hometown in Penang this Thursday... Had to book a last minute ticket...

I have not yet decided on my return date to SG. Highly likely it will be mid July when the NTU Residential Hall Mentor application results are out. Will keep you posted in this thread.

Wish me best of luck on the Residental mentor application...

How time flies! It's been a pleasure serving you since February 2022. Since our humble beginning 2 years ago from Hong Kong, the Financial Times and Business Times newspapers have helped me a lot in my understanding of finance and business, especially the dark and dirty side of things. And I hope you benefit from them as much as I do. 2 years on, now in Singapore, we are still going on strong... just feels like yesterday...



See you in Penang this Thursday!

With best regards,

TOS

This post has been edited by TOS: Jun 4 2024, 11:04 PM

BT 050624: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1otojRviP7R...iew?usp=sharing

Tomorrow's issue will be the last copy scanned.

BT 060624: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1yBcP0J0oif...iew?usp=sharing

Last copy... for now...

OCF = operating cash flow, sometimes called "cash flow from operations" in some accounting languages.

I would say it depends on your investment horizon... if you purely after the dividends then fat ones may come in these few years but the price return will be miserable so when you sell the exit price won't be nice...

Well, Z74 is rising, so as STI...

Every insider knows SG companies don't have good M&A track record...



--------------------------------

Singtel margins are in the mid 10s. M1's and Starhub's are barely half of that...

Changi Airport Group results: https://links.sgx.com/FileOpen/CAG%20Group%...t&FileID=805948

The Malaysia-Singapore causeway is about to reach 100 years old.

https://archive.ph/zrNtr