I don't have access to an internet terminal now. What was the reading this morning on China Trade Balance ? Worse than August's number ?

Thank you, bro,...

Referring to your earlier comment, I must say that I am more for the possibility that if this China Trade number is not satisfactory and the MAS is to ease tomorrow based on another bad GDP result which is due out at the same time tomorrow morning, then the STI will fall. True enough, the STI fell, though not that much.

For the REITs and stocks I am watching, they were greener in the morning before the report came out, then slowly each counter goes red one after the other. 2 counters were unchanged.

AND : from my first para in the above, the SGD should weaken against the USD and the MYR. But it strengthened instead,... unless we say,... that... people are buying-up the SGD due to its safe-haven currency status. But who would want to buy a safe-haven currency that is going to weaken soon ?

Unless, of course, the GDP number from MAS is really not that bad, and MAS will not ease tomorrow morning.

Good analysis and following-thru of figures in the above.

USD/MY staying between 4.15 and 4.25 in the near term, probably till the end of this year. Analysts and Hedge Funds are betting on crude price improving next year,... from which month onwards is unsure.

SO, there is ONLY one way for the MYR to go from now ????

Disclaimer : no other THREE major related developments - in-country-politics, China recovery, Fed hike re-ignition for coming year-end.

The first one, because then the movement of the SGD will be more predictable for us to take advantage of. Looks like all the news about the MAS ann't tomorrow will only appear the evening before the MAS event.

Uncle's prophesy showing signs. PETRONAS has to work harder now to source for new wells to dig even in these times,... that's what I read between the lines :-

'Mohd Redhani was a panellist at a special session entitled "South East Asia Exploration Challenges: Geoscience Innovations and Business Solutions", which discussed recent and potential future success factors in finding significant new hydrocarbon resources in the South-East Asia region.

He said Petronas acknowledged that the oil and gas industry in Malaysia was maturing and that what was left to explore were the riskier areas.'

Source : http://www.thestar.com.my/Business/Busines...tion/?style=biz

This post has been edited by Hansel: Oct 13 2015, 09:42 PM

Since he did not mention any specific strategy and reason for doing this, then we have to speculate. I reason this is because there is no more easy oil to be found,... the exploration activities will have a lower yielding result, hence, it will take more time to discover productive wells.

PETRONAS wants to be prepared for the upturn in oil price.

Not exactly,... if crude starts to drop further below 47, then it's time now to sell the MYR and buy the USD instead.

Good morning to all.

I don't get it,... you said you are of the view earlier: crude now <47, rm likely to go >4.20 tmrw.

So, it means crude will start another drop, and RM will be starting another bout of weakening. If you are a currency trader, you should start to sell the RM now since it commands more USD, and stocks up more USD as the USD appreciates.

As we speak, the RM has weakened this morning.

Singaporeans working at the MAS gets up early and goes to the MAS early to make their annuoncements.

It has been announced - The GDP for the last quarter edged UP BY 0.1% instead of going down further, hence AVOIDING A TECHNICAL RECESSION.

THe MAS will take the below move :-

Move the centre of the band lower

Shifting the center of the policy band to a lower level would signal the exchange rate should remain on the weak side in the near future. Re-centering the policy band lower by half a band would be equivalent to a one-off devaluation of 2%, DBS Group Holdings Ltd senior currency economist Philip Wee said in a note on Oct 6.

The Singapore dollar has fallen about 5% against the US dollar this year. It will probably depreciate about 8% in total this year to S$1.44 versus the greenback, according to analysts surveyed by Bloomberg, which would be the currency's worst performance since the Asian financial crisis of 1997.

As of now - the SGD has weakened slightly against the USD but strengthened against the MYR. But,...... still too early to tell. Mkt reactions will continue to develop throughout the rest of the day today.

THat's right -

BUt let's wait for further development. ... The window tobuy more of the SGD from now will be smaller and unpredictable.

If the E&P (Exploration and Production) sector of the oil chain is down and is to the advantage of PETRONAS, that man would have announced so. But he did not.

Many big oil producers worldwide have stopped their E&P activities,... but our PETRONAS is doing the contrary ? MUst be something very drastic happening soon if they do NOT take this risk,.... That's how I read it, and this is in-line with the fact that he mentioned that Petronas' oil industry is maturing.

PETRONAS has PETRONAS Carigali and PETRONAS Dagangan. BOth are under the umbrella of the PETRONAS Group.

I wouldn't be too happy if I am a shareholder of PETDAG.

MOney is money, be it in the context of Gov't or private sector. If money is spent in the wrong way during these times, then it is WRONG. If you are right and our Gov't wants to prop up their image by spending money in a risky environment, then Msia is doing the wrong thing again. What's more with PETRONAS needing to dig into her reserves now.

I'm sorry - I can't agree with this move,... if it is just to show something to the people. I would liken it to throwing away our tax money again.

Did not buy any SGD yesterday,... was banging on the SGD to weaken today,... So.....as of now, things got disrupted for me.

But,.. just a consolation for me that First REIT is giving out an all-time high quarterly dividend of 2.08 cents per unit today,.. which translates into higher amount of RM for me, if I am to convert back to the RM or which converts into a higher amount of USD for me if I am to travel at year-end.

Not as of now,... strengthening against the USD since this morning. Long live the SGD !

Showtime's and Av's actions are entertaining, thank you, gents,...

On my side, I hoped Showtime is right about the following though,... I am really finding it hard to convert more RM into foreign notes because of the weakness in the RM.

'Could be back down to 4.00 or even 3.xx if political issues are resolved by year end and FED's direction is no more an uncertainty.'

Yeah,... RM is also strengthening against the SGD. At I am writing, it is at 3.0321 against the SGD. So,... if we go to the money-changer tomorrow, can probably get at 3.0530 if this number of 3.0321 does not move-up further by tonight.

RMB will weaken, SSE and HSI will react positively. What are the secondary effects to the world ?

Probably RM will weaken again,....

Hence,... must concentrate on making foreign income.

I wrote the above this evening. China cutting rates really threw a spanner into the works. Look at the sharp spike-up when the rate cut was announced this evening. But..........

...the RM HAS strengthened back against the SGD.

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=SGDMYR%...ing":true}

Jibby has a stronger influence on the RM than the PBOC. But for how long ???

Well, at least they did not raise the GST.