Bnm foreign reserve is largely financed by short term external debt.

HLIB Research: Ringgit to hit 4.00 level against USD by year-end, international reserves to stabilise

http://www.theedgemarkets.com/my/article/h...?type=Corporate

I do care IBs or stock brokers are right or wrong. Their opinions affect my decision. And yes, I will form an opinion on who is good at prediction as times go. At least I can judge them if they give a time frame.

For those who refuse to give a time frame while still love to give their prediction with rhetorics, I can't tell whether they are right or wrong ever. They could be right after all. But they have not balls or intention to prove themselves. That makes a debate very difficult and with no ending

BTW, what do you think of RM by this year end ? Just curious to know

Now i feel like spending all my FD finish because it seems no point saving with lesser gain only

SGD

Same.

The prb with the SGD is if we let it stay there, it does not generate any interest for us, or very low interest. So, as of this morning, I've decided to convert into the USD, park the funds in a Sgp bank, and hoped to enjoy the appreciation of the USD funds AGAINST THE SGD. I am now comparing how to make more SGD and no more comparing against the RM.

The SGD is targeted to weaken soon against the USD. Against the RM, IT KEEPS STRENGTHENING. 

actually im curious ...majority of the advice given here is to change RM to USD.

But how many % USD will appreciate against RM ? Say expecting a minimum of 5%. USD have to appreciate by .22 cent (Approx) . Meaning to say everyone TP would be around 4.7 (At the safe side). Correction me if im wrong.

Like what Showtime747 always mentioned.. time frame time frame.. when do you expect it will go to 4.7 ?

And having saying that ... i guess plenty of investment vehicle can generate 5% ROI. Even a flexi account can give 4.8% interest every DAY in fact and it is rock solid sure with bare minimum risk.

Changing RM to the USD, hold the USD and wait for the SGD to weaken against the USD, finally changing the USD in-hand into the SGD to buy SG assets is, to me, very strategic at this moment.

We go one big round now and fiddle with three currencies to maximise gain.

How do you change myr > usd > SGD? Through SG bank?
After getting SGD, how to buy?  Online?

I agree that it's not possible to time the market. I wouldn't time the stock market directly, but with a very, very high possibility of the SGD weakening against the USD soon, I am confident I will win in this bet, at the very least.

And when I have won by getting more SGD from every unit of USD in-hand, I will wait fro the SGX to plunge (which in my opinion, will happen soon) and then buy-in to the SGX.

Another thing I'd like to mention here is though the USD may stand still for sometime, the RM has a very high tendency to drop against the 'standing' USD. Hence, it is again to my advantage to 'run away' from the RM as fast as I can.

I go back to my basic principle : I am betting that in the long term, the RM will still lose out to the SGD and the USD.

Cherroy,... I'm afraid you have put in very, very tight timings into your example here to corner me. I am of the opinion that what I intend to do by manipulating around the currencies is quite macro in nature and am not really trying to catch the tight timings that you have put in-place above.

Your example above starts in 2008 and terminates at mid-September, 2015, measuring the parameters exactly during that period to determine success. This is quite an extreme case of market timing in-play, which, again, is not I am not trying to do here.

Furthermore, the view that I take is far into the future. I do not intend to take a measurement by the end of this year, nor by the end-of-the-next, etc.

I do not base my investment success on the RM anymore, for I am running away from the RM.

need to understand this...

meaning... bank indon issuing foreign currency debt?

borrowing fx to fight fx?

woo... how are they going to redeem them in future?

with only 105 billion usd in fx reserves...
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/indonesia/...change-reserves

looks like just another risky way to peg the rupiah...

Key steps include the planned issuance of Bank Indonesia certificates in foreign currency and central bank intervention in the forward market for rupiah, in order contain expectations on how much more it might depreciate.

I think in the longer term, there is really no catalyst for the RM to turn around. Slight breathers like this are good for RM sellers to take positions into the foreign markets/currencies.

Our conventional thinking that cash is useless may not be applicable for the past 1 year.

If we hold forex, our returns could be between 10-20% in RM terms. Could be higher depending on the timing and which currency

While if you invest in stock market, the return is negative this year.

The notion of "inflation is eating you alive" may not be applicable anymore. Cash may be a good option despite earning no interest

http://money.cnn.com/2015/09/29/investing/...l?iid=obnetwork

I never said I intend to stay-put in the USD. I will convert my USD in-hand into the SGD when the situation is in my favour ! And I never leave my SGD funds idle in the bank. I buy REITs, SG sticks, and HY Bonds denominated in different currencies.

But I guessed each is to his own,... if you believe that the RM and the KLSE will recover later on AFTER the fundamentals have changed, but that is if it can change,... then you can wait fro that time to come. As far as I'm comcerned, I have enough imbedded in Msia, I need to go out.

Without sufficient oil revenue and with PETRONAS starting to dig into her coffers, I really wondered how much can we improve (or change for the better) this time ? How long will it take ? If I am to regret sending my money out and then seeing the RM strengthens against all currencies, hence, making me suffer losses having foreign currencies in-hand,... I REALLY DON"T THINK it will be this time round.

will definitely be interesting to see this 1% deficit budget 2016 on oct 23.

today, 10 yr mgs high 4.16%, closed 4.14%.

looks like either local funds in a buying frenzy or foreigners have not been selling like crazy.

we'll wait for next foreign holding %, whether 46-47% has changed or not.
given all that is happening, it is very possible it will hover 4.40-4.50 for weeks/months.

key factor will be budget 2016 on oct 23.

i will wait for that to make major decisions on rm-fx.

When the trend is tight range bound, then play DCI. Good interest rate compare to your fund idling. 7 days also got 

Employment data is an indicator market look at.

I still believe USD on up trend, are you going to sell USD for myr tomorrow?

Right ! So we play as long a term as we can. Then time is on our side. Anyway,... I made some predictions for next week in the last few postings above. Let's see !