Now,...the Shell CEO said the oil price is turning around ! Look at the other thread on US Stocks Discussions.

The price of QTI Crude has now reached $49.05/bbl.

I suspect the MYR is being supported because of this, and NOT by the weakening USD.

Mainly because price of Crude is improving....

I am buying in to the USD slowly.

Unless the Bank of Japan puts in a further stimulus in the BOJ meeting today and tomorrow, the FOMC will AGAIN announce that rate hike for this year is still on the cards. Then,... the USD may strengthen again. One Fed Governor, I think.... Mr Rosgren has announced that rate hike is still on the cards for this yr, but it looks like that speech has not garnered much attention.

Let's see.

As I said earlier,... mainly because of oil price and to a smaller extent, because of the USD weakening.

The biggest non-OPEC member and the biggest OPEC-member are now ready to talk more seriously. A key OPEC member just commented not to listen too much to the press and to outside rumours.

Everything is discussed and decided upon behind closed doors in the APEC meeting.

I have an answer for you - wait till next week, buy the SGD.

The reason for all these plunges, according to Thomson-Reuters :-

07-10-2015 13:59:42
BUZZ-USD/SGD dragged lower by USD/MYR

* USD/SGD slips thru 1.4180, weighed by sell-off in USD/MYR*

Next stall seen at 1.4161, 23 Sept low, break risks 1.4100 next* USD/SGD last 1.4183-87, traded low at 1.4174 so far* SGD/MYR plunge to 3.0100 low last, eyes strong support at 3.00*

Catherine.Tan@thomsonreuters.com

Hi,... well, like you have always been saying, always expect the unexpected. THe unexpected is happening now. Lots of opportunities for people to start plying into the USD and the SGD by converting their MYR over.

Earlier, everybody was saying : now the USD is so expensive, is it the right time to convert ? So,.. now's the chance.

More legs to go if oil price does not swing back,... convert slowly. NOW'S THE TIME.

sure angpow style

NO man,... can never catch the bottom. Convert over slowly.

But if you must know when to catch NEAR THE BOTTOM, do this :-

a) for the USD : wait for the mtg between RUssia and S.Arabia,... if the talks break down, then it's near. Or - some big guy at the FOMC says that the rate hike is still on-track this year, then it's near.

b) for the SGD : observe the MAS announcement next Wednesday morning.

Now's the time,....

SURE ANGPOW STYLE

Edited : grammar errors.

This post has been edited by Hansel: Oct 7 2015, 04:12 PM

SURE ANGPOW STYLE

Well,... not really. Just use the funds to buy more instrumnts. And wait to average down now.

An interview with another fund mgr at CHannel News Asia this morning mentioned that the Feds is still on-track for a rate hike come-December 2015. The ten-year bond yields are signalling that.

A possible situation now could be the Feds dare not talk too much about a rate hike because they just don't now when to do it,... but at the mtg in December, they just hike it.

Chna is putting a lot of stimuli to strengthen the economy.

All said, now is still a good time to buy-in into the USD gradually.

I maintain my earlier position : no way no hike - only that the timeline needs to be stretched slightly. If the Feds can stretch, so can I,...

In the meantime, talks about Sgp's economy going into a technical recession is slowing. MAS mtg is approaching - ann't is due on next Wednesday morning.

Another good point to watch-out for... After the MYR has dropped so much against the SGD and the USD, now's a good time to watch how far will it recover against both, after all these negative news against the USD and the SGD have been priced-in.

What is THE NEW NORMAL for the SGD-MYR and the USD-MYR ? Can the MYR recover ALL the way back to 2.70 and 3.85 respectively ?

Bernanke is no more in-charge now. If you have watched Bloomberg last night, Bernanke had 2 dialogues with the Bloomberg personalities - one with the daily Bloomberg reporters and another with Charlie Rose. In both dialogues, he mentioned that his successor, Ms Janet Yellen is doing a great job, no doubt things have been very unpredictable. At the same time, he said, in both dialogues, that he will support whatever approach Ms Yellen will undertake, including any form of hikes that may be decided upon, regardless of after ann't or not.

Sure - data-dependant, but may I say that the data dependency factor that used to rely on US data only has now encompassed the whole world. I know,.. data-dependant, but when the form of data-dependency starts evolving, then the Feds is signalling to me that their data-dependency criteria is not reliable.

It's like,... I promise something at one point in time, but later on, my 'form of the promise' has changed. YES, it is still a promise, but since the form of promise has changed, then the EARLIER promise cannot be kept anymore. SO it's easy, I'll just keep changing the form of my promise in order not to keep the earlier promise. It's NOT a promise after all.

Anyway,...it's okay,.. I always believed in covering ALL the corners. I'll cover ALL the corners again this time.

I noticed that you edited your posting by removing the statement : Unless the political situation changes.

Well,.. I can't tell too whether 2.90 and 4.00 are the new normal, and whether these new normals will stand if the political situation changes.

For me, I'm still TT'ing out my funds into the SGD for now, but stopping for awhile for the USD. I don't intend to stop TT'ing out my funds after what happened in Msia the last few months !

I will look at the very long term, and my bet for the longterm is the MYR will still lose-out to foreign currencies. It is still better to earn in foreign currencies and not necessary (legally) to pay taxes to the LHDN.

My EPF and my props in Msia will suffice to ensure I have some Msian holdings. The rest, all out.

After that fiasco with ASX, I have looked very hard outside of the country, it's tough, but I am beginning to see there are better investment opportunities outside of ASX's, outside of Msia. There is a saying in life : don't give opportunities for someone to try something. IF an opportunity is given and the person tries things out, then he might succeed, and that person will follow the new ideas from then on.

Anyway, I am using only small amounts (in the region of a few thousands of RM equivalent) to try-out in a few of such fixed-income instruments outside of the country, and a few of the instruments look resilient. The 'feel' that I am getting is more and more confidence in my heart.

Never try, never know.

I'm okay with 2.90 and 4.00 for the SGD and the USD respectively,... it will maintain my wealth position at such currency levels, with the major portion of my wealth outside of Msia. I hoped you are right !

The prb with the SGD is we can't easily predict how much it will weaken and for how long will it remain weak. In very brutal words : it's bloody strong.

Unlike the RM, when the RM was weakening continuously the last few months, we can tell that easily and it weakened for A FEW MONTHS all the way down.

Look at this graph : http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=USDSGD%...ing":true}

The MAS eased the SGD on Jan 15 this year. Do you really see the SGD weakening that badly against the USD immediately after that ? I think it's not worth the spread.

If you are a trader, then yes, follow the short term trend. But please put in tighter SL positions.

I'll do this. But wait till it falls a little bit more, till,... 4.05. Then fire a bit,.... don't hammer in everything. If it breaches 4.00,... then,...sorry, need to check graphs again.

Bro,.. even if the RM does strengthen back to sub-4.00 level, you still have your business generating RM and your big EPF chest and your props, and I'm sure there are many other numerous things you have in our natural currency.

So, whatever extras you have now, change it into the foreign currency.

The recent experience has PROVEN TO ALL OF US THAT THE RM CAN REALLY DROP ALL THE WAY DOWN. It is not a one-off event. Provided the Gov't does not intervene by pegging, the RM can really drop, man,...

THat's what I said,.. it's hard to catch. I think we have only a one-day window, or maybe less upon the ann't. That's the only time to catch more SGD.

Unlike our RM, when the wind blows, the whole thing topples over. It's easier to predict,... I'm glad we had that recent experience. Now we know how low the RM can go.

Edited by adding : ...if the ann't comes, if MAS really eases. These two days, I don't see too much news about the technical recession and MAS easing anymore,....

This post has been edited by Hansel: Oct 9 2015, 12:08 PM