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 USD/MYR drop, V2

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Hansel
post Oct 1 2015, 10:46 PM

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QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Oct 1 2015, 10:37 PM)
U refer to application of NAV for FP funds?
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Yes, I am talking about the fixed nav of RM1 for FP funds. Remember that in the MP, there is a section that stated that the 6 FP funds do not need to follow the particular MFRS rules of disclosing the nav by Dec 31, 2015 ? That's what I'm talking about. The question is : why did they announce this back then ?
Hansel
post Oct 1 2015, 10:59 PM

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QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Oct 1 2015, 10:51 PM)
As part of corporate governance
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THat's what I thought,... it's one of the rules of the SC for this disclosure to be included, be it for an open-ended fund or for a closed-ended fund. So,... ASNB must put in an updated disclosure for the extension given (if it is given) when the term expires on December 31st., 2015, right ?
Hansel
post Oct 2 2015, 01:24 PM

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The USD is strengthening against the SGD as we speak.

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=USDSGD%...ing":true}

My USD funds parked in the bank is gaining strength, as I predicted. But since I am not ready to buy any SGX assets yet, I will continue to let the USD stay as it is until the prices of REITs and dividend stocks cannot be refused anymore.

Then I will fire !
Hansel
post Oct 2 2015, 02:35 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Oct 2 2015, 02:00 PM)
just don't count until u miss the coming dividend season for sg reits! biggrin.gif
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Hi AV,... I think it's okay that I miss the current dividend season, having in mind that I may be able to get even better yield down the road,... smile.gif
Hansel
post Oct 2 2015, 06:00 PM

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QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Oct 2 2015, 04:41 PM)
...however, the MYR did not plunge that badly against the USD today,....
Hansel
post Oct 4 2015, 07:07 PM

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Good evening to all.

The jobs report comes out every Friday. So, if the report for next Friday, or the Friday after that improves,... everything will change again.

We need one of the Fed Governors to come out and say that the Feds is STILL ON-TRACK to raise the interest rate this year.... everything will change again.

The SG MAS Monetary Policy Statement will be announced on Oct 14th. or Oct 15th.... If there is a lowering of the GDP again, then Sgp will experience a technical recession. Will the S$NEER Band be lowered ?
Hansel
post Oct 4 2015, 07:09 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Oct 2 2015, 11:29 PM)
no rate hike is good also - sg reit prices will gain a couple of % next week.
hansel will miss bigtime! laugh.gif
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smile.gif At most, will go green on one day. Then will drop again after that. smile.gif Sentiment in Sgp is not good, gentlemen,....

Hansel
post Oct 4 2015, 07:10 PM

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QUOTE(Ramjade @ Oct 2 2015, 11:36 PM)
Hansel aiming for long term. So more units /SGD that he can buy.
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smile.gif That's right ! Very long term. Sgp will still win,... I will continue to reap dividends as the quarters go by.... smile.gif
Hansel
post Oct 4 2015, 07:13 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Oct 2 2015, 11:42 PM)
no ler...

if no rate hike soon or indefinitely, usd will weaken.

sgd gets a little stronger, he'll get even less units with usd. tongue.gif
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smile.gif No way no rate hike. See my earlier post above on how things will change easily.

If SGD appreciates next week, I will wait. Sooner or later the SGD will depreciate against the USD again. When the feeling and the instinct is tight, I will convert over. smile.gif
Hansel
post Oct 4 2015, 07:15 PM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Oct 3 2015, 12:09 AM)
You could be right  tongue.gif

Conclusion : market is unpredictable  laugh.gif
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smile.gif Right ! So we play as long a term as we can. Then time is on our side. Anyway,... I made some predictions for next week in the last few postings above. Let's see ! smile.gif
Hansel
post Oct 5 2015, 08:43 AM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Oct 4 2015, 07:43 PM)
always leave some room for a surprise. laugh.gif
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HI AV,... tq,... having aenues for surprises is a healthy move for invenstments,... no doubt. I believed my tool for 'being ready for suprises' has already been covered by my long term plan for the SGD vs the MYR. So, even if I am wrong in that the Feds must need to hike rates, the chance for the SGD to appreciate against the MYR is still higher when given enough chance and time.

At this time, my conviction that the Feds really have no choice but to hike rates would be shared by many, if not all those reputable quarters out there.

So,... I'll still buy on the dips when between the USD and the MYR. And my view is still the USD will strengthen against all currencies, including the sGD for me to accumulate more SGD this month. We'll know by the coming few days,.... as the MAS MPS Meeting approaches.
Hansel
post Oct 5 2015, 08:58 AM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Oct 4 2015, 10:48 PM)
A sincere advice, never try to "time the market" when investing or for the purpose of diversification or whatever.  smile.gif

Often, market could "time" you back.
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Well,...I'll put forward a 'time the mkt' action that I took back in 2008/9. IT is still standing till today and till now, in spite of this downturn, my coungers have not dropped back to my Buy prices at the 2008/9 levels. This goes to show that it is possible to time the mkt too, no doubt it cannot be repeated successively continuously.

As it is till today, the mkt has NOT 'timed' me back, my dividends collected have been uncountable, and my margin-of-safety in the stock prices is far enough to gove me comfort.
Hansel
post Oct 5 2015, 09:28 AM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Oct 4 2015, 11:01 PM)
Job data comes out every first Friday of every month, not every week.

A job data of 100~150K number won't prompt for Fed to raise rate.
The zeroing in wages growth further cool the rate hike significantly.

No wages growth - no inflation threat.

No inflation + slow job creation + no wages growth, Fed may find difficulty to raise rate, as if Fed did raise rate, and economy become sluggish afterwards, they may be blamed for taking a wrong move at a wrong timing.
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I always equate additional jobs added to unemployment claims. These two parameters are in an inverse relationship. The Unemployment Claims Data is read-out on a weekly basis.

Throughout the months, all the numbers are ding-donging up and down. So, I wouldn't really pay too much attention to some numbers. When US numbers are good, then Ms Yellen talks about conditions in China,... holding back rate hike again.

I'll just prepare myself for the real hike when it materialises. NO point waiting.

In your formula here : No inflation + slow job creation + no wages growth, you missed out another impt parameter being : unemployment claims. Unemployment claims comes out on a weekly basis. After 4 weeks of unemployment claims, I normally have a feeling how will the other three parameters in your equation fare.
Hansel
post Oct 5 2015, 09:41 AM

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QUOTE(dreamer101 @ Oct 5 2015, 09:17 AM)
wil-i-am,

The article said that USD is going to weaken against Yen and Euro.  So, this may or may not help RM.

Dreamer
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Well,... MR Dreamer,... if the USD does weaken against our RM, it will giveme an opportunity window to convert more of my RM into the USD.I still have RM sitting in Msia, waiting to go out. And if the USD strengthens against all currencies, then I might convert some USDs into the SGDs to prepare to go into the REITs and dividend stocks.

Either way, I'll have something to do.
Hansel
post Oct 5 2015, 10:13 AM

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QUOTE(MGM @ Oct 5 2015, 09:48 AM)
How low are u going to lower your MYR assets weightage? Or like dreamer, almost zero?
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Hi MGM,... Having three assets in Msia, namely the EPF, my practice and my properties, which are all denominated in the RM, I think the diversification process adequeate for the Msia side.

What ever extra I make in my practice and well,... whatever I have in my ASX, I think, should be diverted outside already.

A bit more of opinions here : it takes time to sell away my props, hence, those props are in a dangerous position and might be confiscated by the Govern't if times turn out to be really bad. I see the pattern is emerging whereby our leaders are asking us to leave this country (my opinion), and being in the legal industry, if there is nothing we can do to refute these 'halau' statements against the minorities, then I think things are moving in a certain direction already.. I'll prepare myself for the day when our citizenship is revoked (which is, under the laws of accusations within the Sedition Act, the Govern't can impose this.)

My minor in University was Political Science. Hence, my decisions on how I am forced to take positions in my financial survivability.

I think our PM is a very learned man, he knows how to capitalize on all the advantages of the law in his favour. I respect him very much for his great knowledge and on his political maneuvers nationally and internationally, but not on his other traits. He is just too smart for us,... He can drive the minorities out of this country.

This post has been edited by Hansel: Oct 5 2015, 10:18 AM
Hansel
post Oct 5 2015, 10:22 AM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Oct 4 2015, 07:09 PM)
smile.gif At most, will go green on one day. Then will drop again after that.  smile.gif Sentiment in Sgp is not good, gentlemen,....
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Till now, the STI is green. But the SGD is weakening against the USD, in spite of the Dollar Index dropping now. Sentiment in Sgo is not good, gents,... But I'm not converting my USD back into the SGD yet,... more to drop fro the SGD.
Hansel
post Oct 5 2015, 12:50 PM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Oct 5 2015, 11:00 AM)
Reit is sensitive to interest rate.

No rate hike or treasuries yield low, reit price up.

Sg reit, some already quite attractive.
Sgd even may soft due to potential easing measure, it won't plunge like RM one.

So if Sg reit is attractive and could provide stable yield one, I don't see why the need to wait and "time" it perfectly to squeeze every drop out of it.

Nevertheless, it is far from conclusion that rate hike may happen or not.
Always leave room for unpredictable event.

Now, USD is moving in tight range, while equities is "celebrating" potential no rate hike.
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When the chances to win in a timing opportunity is high, we should take it. I don't think anybody can say that the SG REITs might anytime soon turn around and shoot into the sky. Tendency is more for the SG REITs to plunge further.

I will wait as I accumulate more USDs to be converted into the SGD.

Today is a good day to convert my RM into the USD and park in Sgp.
Hansel
post Oct 6 2015, 11:11 AM

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If the USD does turn around against the MYR, preferably back to, say 4.00, then we must watch if prices of things go back down as they were earlier,... I don't think so.


Hansel
post Oct 6 2015, 01:56 PM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Oct 6 2015, 12:35 PM)
Last time, when Yen surged time, car dealers said Yen surged, so car price needs to be adjusted up.

But when Yen plunged 40% after Abenomics policy just few years ago, did we see car price adjusted downwards?
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" You wish. Once up will never drop "

As I thought so. I did say the above in previous few postings,... but had wishful thinking I was wrong. So, it means we have lost our purchasing power forever. Now we need to see how much more we will lose this purchasing power before goods and and services stop appreciating....

Spend the SGD or the USD in Malaysia.
Hansel
post Oct 6 2015, 03:54 PM

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Looks like oil price has a very strong support at USD42 to USD44 per bbl. Each piece of news coming out now just does not seem to tip the oil price below USD40.00. This will support the RM to a certain extent.

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