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 USD/MYR drop, V2

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Hansel
post Oct 1 2015, 08:33 AM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Sep 30 2015, 09:44 PM)
I do not try to corner you.  biggrin.gif
Just 2008 is the aftermath of financial crisis, that's why I took this time as starting point.
The extreme case was actually pro USD (RM4.40), but even with extreme case, it doesn't gain as much as many taught.

I just try to highlight that another perspective that many may forget about it.
RM may not strong in term of long term future based on current fundamental, but USD fundamental may not as strong as well.

That's one reason I strongly emphasis and prefer on asset class that can yield good and still got diversification exposure.

USD is safe heaven currency, whenever there is turmoil, crisis, uncertainty arised time, it will surge and stay strong.
But when situation becomes smooth sailing time, everyone will focus back on its massive debt issue, and saying USD is worthless etc again one.

I never intend to say which ever RM or USD is good in the case.  smile.gif
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I'll take this from a personal perspective which hits me directly.

I continue to earn my Msian Active Income in the RM. Personally today, I find that from each RM that I am spending, I am getting les than what I used to get earlier. THis is not good for me. To take this a step further, do you think my purchasing power will go back to previous status when 'everything recovers' ? I don't think so - when prices have gone up, they won't move back down easily.

So, am I going to sit around and wait, as you say, fro the fundamentals of the RM to turn around ? I wouldn't,... especially when I see that there is no clear light at the end of the tunnel. I'll start taking actions now to move more of my funds out of country to hedge further, since I still have my natural income in Msia and my EPF is going to be stuck in Msia for sometime.

Perhaps we can always quote that in the current perspective, RM may not be good, then looking at long term, the RM will rebound. Again, I'll quote a personal experience here : I NEVER regretted taking the actions I took back in 2005/6 when I moved my funds out, even though the KLSE came back later, and the RM recovered later, relatively.

I lost money when I converted into the SGD right before they removed the peg back in 2005/6, but because I converted over to the SGD, my warchest was ready fro the downturn in 2008/9 in Singapore.

Everytime, the SGD strengthened against the RM throughout the last few years. Sure, there were dips, so I bought in more with the excess from my Active Income.

I never said I intend to stay-put in the USD. I will convert my USD in-hand into the SGD when the situation is in my favour ! And I never leave my SGD funds idle in the bank. I buy REITs, SG sticks, and HY Bonds denominated in different currencies.

But I guessed each is to his own,... if you believe that the RM and the KLSE will recover later on AFTER the fundamentals have changed, but that is if it can change,... then you can wait fro that time to come. As far as I'm comcerned, I have enough imbedded in Msia, I need to go out.

Without sufficient oil revenue and with PETRONAS starting to dig into her coffers, I really wondered how much can we improve (or change for the better) this time ? How long will it take ? If I am to regret sending my money out and then seeing the RM strengthens against all currencies, hence, making me suffer losses having foreign currencies in-hand,... I REALLY DON"T THINK it will be this time round.
Hansel
post Oct 1 2015, 08:38 AM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Sep 30 2015, 09:50 PM)
By borrowing in foreign denominated currency, it will push up the foreign currency reserves, or in other word, you solve the short term problem, but need to solve it later on over the long term.

Buying time is also a strategy, as long as you manage well the economy afterwards, as if Rupiah does rise in the future (due to well managed economy) and when debt maturity time, it saves you money instead, as you repay less.

But generally, not something advisable, as it is always a risky move to borrow in foreign denominated currency, which Asian financial crisis has given a good lesson on it.
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If this tactic is coming from another economy, I would have no doubt that there is a good shot at this. But from INdon, I'll stay aside.

The periodic coupon servicing in the USD will start to kill them slowly before they can even start to take actions to reform the economy and to prop up the rupiah.
Hansel
post Oct 1 2015, 08:46 AM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Sep 30 2015, 10:07 PM)
If a tabled budget is seriously in term of tackling the economy shortfall and budget deficit, it may be a positive factor.

For long term, it is always a lot of unpredictable event.

When 1998 crisis "exploded" time, many taught it is dead and buried, KLCI sink to 300, RM to 4.80.
But years later, KLCI recovered to 700, and became 1200 10 years later, and 1800 15 years later, which nobody can guess.
Last time, many also said the same thing, no catalyst for the RM or KLCI to turn around.

Same with USD prior before 2008, everyone said massive debt, debt clock ticking which USD would become worthless, but now become the strongest currency.

So I do not dare to make any premature prediction, modern day financial market is simply too volatile and unpredictable.
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I look at all the above and sum-up like this : Only a person who has been very lucky with market timing may be able to defeat me today in Ringgit terms, compared to what I have undertaken to do with my foreign funds since back in 2004/5.

I believed, for the sake of comparison in percentage terms, and with all else being equal, ie a person went into MY divvies stocks, or straight-thru FDs thoughout the years till today, or ASX funds till today, I would say that I would still fare out better after converting all my foreign assets into the RM if I wished to.
Hansel
post Oct 1 2015, 06:04 PM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Oct 1 2015, 09:26 AM)
It is good for you to have diversification.

In term of diversification purposes, the goal is not as simple as looking which is better, but wealth protection, there is no such thing of "regret".

I do not think you get my message on the previous posts.
I am not saying invest in USD is good nor bad.
I am not bullish/bearish on KLSE nor RM either.

But just to highlight, don't premature conclude anything, future is always unpredictable.
Today a hot selling product or business, or highly chased after stocks or currencies, doesn't mean they must be good forever.

Many things do change over the time. 
That's why we need to have diversification to mitigate those risk.
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Very well,... your main topic in question here is diversification. I believed this is a very obvious subject that we have always been talking about. In my recent posts to answer you, I have diversification as a SECONDARY objective. That is why I keep harping on going for the USD, then over to the SGD,... and at the same time did mention too I still have my EPF in Msia and my Active Income in my practice which is billed in the RM. Wouldn't you call this doversification ?

Perhaps you are the one who do not understand me - you seem to be carrying the idea that I am not diversifying anymore and am going all out for the foreign currencies only.

If we are talking about the same thing, then we do not need to elaborate further,... at this point in time, I am focussing on diversifying further out into the world rather than think that the RM will turn around, which is,... let's be frank here, what you keep implying and that we should still give a fair chance to the RM.

NO, I am diversified enough into the RM,... so please do not tell me to look BACK AT THE RM with all those examples that you quoted with very tight timings.

I agree that nobody can tell the future - but at this point in time, I intend to put my heart and soul into running away from the RM because I realized that I am not diversified enough yet into the world outside. I don't intend to change my mind about this struggle of mine at this moment.
Hansel
post Oct 1 2015, 06:12 PM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Oct 1 2015, 08:05 AM)
Our conventional thinking that cash is useless may not be applicable for the past 1 year.

If we hold forex, our returns could be between 10-20% in RM terms. Could be higher depending on the timing and which currency

While if you invest in stock market, the return is negative this year.

The notion of "inflation is eating you alive" may not be applicable anymore. Cash may be a good option despite earning no interest

http://money.cnn.com/2015/09/29/investing/...l?iid=obnetwork
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Let's be more specific - CASH is king now, provided that cash in question here is the USD. Not the RM. If we continue to hold-on to the RM tightly, imported inflation will kill us.

If you invest in the stock mkt... let's take the SGX for example, I agree that if you bought within the last few months or years, you will experience negative returns. BUT those are unrealized returns. So we just hold-on to those stocks and REITs and don't dispose. Look at the dividends,... if you have bought the correct REITs, eg First REIT, ParkwayLife REIT or a correct stock such as Singpost, the dividend per unit has grown. So, it's still a gain if you have bought the correct REITs and stocks, compared against holding just the SGD in-hand.

Similarly with my US trusts and stocks, I am still reaping the deividends in spite of the value having dropped (as in my oil counter). So,... is it still better to hold-onto cash ?

This post has been edited by Hansel: Oct 1 2015, 06:15 PM
Hansel
post Oct 1 2015, 06:16 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Oct 1 2015, 06:13 PM)
well... we're better off than kazakhstan, syria, brazil or russia where prices probably more than doubled. tongue.gif

ok, we're fairly superior, no? tongue.gif
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I suspect the full effect of the RM depreciation has not trickled down fully into all aspects of our society yet. Wait for a few more months....
Hansel
post Oct 1 2015, 06:31 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Oct 1 2015, 10:02 AM)
indonesia may actually be fine with this move becos it does not have that much debt, <40% gdp compared to msia's >100%.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/201...alaysia-suffers

moreover, it seems they have secured it from the proper banks.
if msia wants to do the same, will those banks say, "go find a donor"? tongue.gif
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Having low debts does not mean the country will have an infinite timeline for it to turnaround (implement structural reforms and strengthen their currency) while borrowing more and more USDs trying to achieve this objective. Knowing the behaviour of this neighbouring country (look at the way they have been promising on what they will do with the haze situation but still no results), it will not be easy to change the people.

If the keep borrowing more and more USDs thinking they are in an advantageous position because of their low debt-to-GDP ratio, soon they will find they can't payback the loans when their supposedly sound structural reform plans do not yield the desired results.

Like I said earlier, if it's another country, I may consider that this tactic may eventually work out for them,... but Indonesia,... ??

Not forgetting too that today, a country cannot be a standalone entity. They need many external factors to support their reformation. If any of the external factors do not fall in their favours, eg China slowing down and hence not importing too much of their palm oil anymore,... their plan will fail.
Hansel
post Oct 1 2015, 06:34 PM

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QUOTE(nexona88 @ Oct 1 2015, 06:20 PM)
we're so "low" that we're group with those countries  cry.gif
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I might be wrong,... but I am predicting that when the full effects of the RM depreciation have trickled down to all of us, the restaurants in Paragon Plaza and Pavilion Mall will not be full of people anymore. Just wait,... say till the end of this year.
Hansel
post Oct 1 2015, 06:39 PM

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QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Oct 1 2015, 06:31 PM)
Our retail petrol price was the 1st victim  sweat.gif
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In the last few months, petrol price has been going up and down for Malaysian consumers. Hence, people are kinda like 'shielded' from the effects in a plus and minus way. Now imagine if petrol price starts to go up continuously,....

NOw imagine if GST is increased further,....

I have clients exploring bankruptcy protections and their advantages in the last few months already.... but they've not asked me to write in officially to the Insolvency Dept yet. Those are the signs I'm seeing.
Hansel
post Oct 1 2015, 06:40 PM

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QUOTE(lunatique @ Oct 1 2015, 06:37 PM)
Waiting is unnecessary. The effect is already upon us.
I have a relative who's in the sales dept for samsung printers. They have retailers in Lowyat who want to return the stocks to their suppliers instead of paying the invoice. shakehead.gif
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This is the first wave.
Hansel
post Oct 1 2015, 06:42 PM

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Catch hold of a strong currency. When the time comes and you find that you do not have enough to spend using your RM, repatriate some funds back to Malaysia for everyday spending.


Hansel
post Oct 1 2015, 07:35 PM

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QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Oct 1 2015, 06:44 PM)
Such as USD n SGD  brows.gif
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Yeah,... I really don't see any other way.

The PM announced in NY that the health of the budget will improve by the end of the decade. So ?

He's implying that this will give more confidence to foreign investors to come back to Msia, and then in turn prop up the RM so that we can have better purchasing power ? So lesser deficit is better for the man in the streets ?

There are so many factors involved to regain investors' confidence. The RM has dropped so much,... so,... in everything recovers, can get back to 1USD = 3.8 RM ?

Even if such a miracle can happen to the RM, do you think the sellers outside will lower back their prices to the time when the USD was = 3.8 RM ? After prices have gone up, do you think sellers will lower back down so easily ?
Hansel
post Oct 1 2015, 09:33 PM

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QUOTE(nexona88 @ Oct 1 2015, 08:54 PM)
so it's biz as usual even with price hike  sweat.gif  icon_idea.gif
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No it won't, when the day comes that there is the rent or the housing instalment needs to be paid, the condo maintenance and sinking fund need to be paid, the car loan needs to be paid, the childrens' school fees and school books need to be paid, food need to be put on the table, then they will find that all the above expenses have eaten up almost all their monthly income, leaving very, very little disposable income for Starbucks and cigarettes.

That's when more corruption takes place, crimes happen,... and when things become even worse, riots will take place, by some quarters claiming that society has not been fair to them.
Hansel
post Oct 1 2015, 10:02 PM

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QUOTE(Ramjade @ Oct 1 2015, 09:37 PM)
That's why we need to be frugal and diversify out. But for that, we need knowledge. You can't simply say I want to move my money in xxx country without reading up about that particular country.

That time people will "wake up"
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OKay,... you need to speed-up your knowledge-gaining activities. Only after you are confident, you will take out a certain portion of your ASX funds to be put somewhere else for diversification. Don't take too long,... other events may take place that will clamp down on your plans.
Hansel
post Oct 1 2015, 10:08 PM

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QUOTE(Ramjade @ Oct 1 2015, 09:34 PM)
Yes. Unlike them, I have been living this kind of life for a long time. You have no idea how cheap-skate I can be. I can adjust. Why drive when one can cycle/walk/take public transport? Drive using proper technique. Why bother eating at fancy restaurant? After all is just for self gratification. And as I already shared with Hansel my opinions on ASX. Like I said before, careful planning and spending will be able to help. Unless malaysia's money become banana money then yes we need to worry. Even then, our ancestors survive in the jungle just fine (planting their own crops, rearing own chickens) during the Japanese occupation. There were no purchasing power back then only about whether one can survive to see the next day or not. You may be anti ASX. But ASX for me is just FD with higher interest. I won't move money into something I do not know yet. It will be suicide. If I move into something I don't know, I might lose 100% of say the 50% of what I moved compare to a decrease in purchasing power of say ~10%. YOu tell me which is better. Losing 50% of what you have or just 10% of purchasing power?

And like I said, price of vege increases? Easy, plant your own vege. It won't be enough but it will help. And there's always tesco which offer reduce to clear vege (at RM0.50) They are still in good condition. Just cut off the bad part and you are good to go. Price of meat increases, there's always tesco which offers chicken at reasonable price. Rice increase? Simple. I don't eat rice. In fact, I have never eaten rice nor any form of carbohydrates for a long time already. High electricity bills? Expensove internet? Just go starbucks and use their internet. Maybe first time order something ask them for password. Subsequent visit, do not need to order anything. Be thick face! Never turn down something that's free!Easy, use the electronic items from the country with low watt. Charged your phone/tablets at office. Save yourself few bucks. That's what my friends and I are going to do. Who needs Astro, Cinema when one have the internet & good books? Who ask one to go on vacation in Europe every year? Go cinema every week, dine out every week? Buy the latest iPhone and iPad every year? Live within one means! The coming years will see frugallity at its best. What I have learn while not in Malaysia will be implemented once I am back in Malaysia.

Not forgetting, despite increase in exchange rates, sometimes it is still cheaper to shop from overseas after counting in the shipping charges than getting from local store. If one knows the way to buy from overseas, it is tax free. smile.gif No 6% GST there. I am talking about food items.

So electricity, food, entertainment, internet , transport is covered. I don't drink, smoke, party, karaoking or go to pub, or do birthday celebrations or dine in fancy hotel and places. You tell me what more will affect me? The most thing which might affect me in the future is petrol, groceries and maybe rental.
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biggrin.gif biggrin.gif biggrin.gif biggrin.gif biggrin.gif

My dear bro,.... you don't intend to get married and have children ?????????? What if you fall in love one day, especially with more than one girl ?

Edited : I can't help but wanted to add the 'jovial' emoticons in the top row. Bro Ramjade is thinking like a juvenile.

This post has been edited by Hansel: Oct 1 2015, 10:09 PM
Hansel
post Oct 1 2015, 10:13 PM

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QUOTE(Ramjade @ Oct 1 2015, 10:07 PM)
Chill Hansel. 5 years by my calculations. 10 if you are over optimistic.
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Then your assumptions are :-

1) Msia will still perform in the next 5 years.

2) Your ASX funds will still perform as they are today for the next five years.

Pretty dangerous to me if I don't have anywhere else to run away to in the next 5 long years, in case some people start banging on my door demanding that I let them live in my house, and confiscating everything that I have !
Hansel
post Oct 1 2015, 10:16 PM

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I guessed it's pretty hard to argue what will become of the FP funds from PNB before Dec 31, 2015 comes. We can only speculate.

So, the best thing to do is to cut your risk in half. But you can only do this if you know where to put the half that you have cut out ! Learn quickly,...
Hansel
post Oct 1 2015, 10:21 PM

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QUOTE(Ramjade @ Oct 1 2015, 10:13 PM)
One should only get married once one can afford a house.  notworthy.gif Or else you are going to get yourself into a financial burden.
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Bro,... it's not only about the house. My posting was meant to alert you to the fact that what you wrote in your long posting earlier is ONLY applicable to a bachelor. You can't impose those lifystyles onto your wife and children, and there will be more expenses outside of what you have written when you have a family. Egs - wedding expenses, honeymen exoenses, maternity expenses, confinement expenses, kindergarten, etc, etc,.... it never stops, man.... haha,....

PLease wake-up, man,....

Added : so when price hikes very badly,... you will definitely be affected as you progress in life. You can't use those tactics that you have written as your insurance strategy if things turn out badly.

This post has been edited by Hansel: Oct 1 2015, 10:24 PM
Hansel
post Oct 1 2015, 10:28 PM

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QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Oct 1 2015, 10:22 PM)
I wud reckon bau on 1/1/2016
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Wil,... I wouldn't want PNB to just keep quiet and continue as normal on 1/1/2016. I would want them to give an announcement on how will the extension of the FP funds be like after that date, as in for how long will those FP funds be extended again as a fixed RM1 per unit each.

If PNB remains quiet, then we are at their mercy, and they can choose to convert anytime to their whims and fancy, perhaps after a short ann't and a short redemption period for those who do not wish to participate anymore.
Hansel
post Oct 1 2015, 10:33 PM

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QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Oct 1 2015, 10:30 PM)
They won't make any announcement as tis is not a CG products which have validity
In addition, tis will send a wrong signal to the public at large
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If it is as you said, then why did they make the said ann'ts in their MPs for the last 3 - 4 years on the dates concerned ?

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