QUOTE(cherroy @ Sep 30 2015, 09:44 PM)
I do not try to corner you.
Just 2008 is the aftermath of financial crisis, that's why I took this time as starting point.
The extreme case was actually pro USD (RM4.40), but even with extreme case, it doesn't gain as much as many taught.
I just try to highlight that another perspective that many may forget about it.
RM may not strong in term of long term future based on current fundamental, but USD fundamental may not as strong as well.
That's one reason I strongly emphasis and prefer on asset class that can yield good and still got diversification exposure.
USD is safe heaven currency, whenever there is turmoil, crisis, uncertainty arised time, it will surge and stay strong.
But when situation becomes smooth sailing time, everyone will focus back on its massive debt issue, and saying USD is worthless etc again one.
I never intend to say which ever RM or USD is good in the case.
I'll take this from a personal perspective which hits me directly.Just 2008 is the aftermath of financial crisis, that's why I took this time as starting point.
The extreme case was actually pro USD (RM4.40), but even with extreme case, it doesn't gain as much as many taught.
I just try to highlight that another perspective that many may forget about it.
RM may not strong in term of long term future based on current fundamental, but USD fundamental may not as strong as well.
That's one reason I strongly emphasis and prefer on asset class that can yield good and still got diversification exposure.
USD is safe heaven currency, whenever there is turmoil, crisis, uncertainty arised time, it will surge and stay strong.
But when situation becomes smooth sailing time, everyone will focus back on its massive debt issue, and saying USD is worthless etc again one.
I never intend to say which ever RM or USD is good in the case.
I continue to earn my Msian Active Income in the RM. Personally today, I find that from each RM that I am spending, I am getting les than what I used to get earlier. THis is not good for me. To take this a step further, do you think my purchasing power will go back to previous status when 'everything recovers' ? I don't think so - when prices have gone up, they won't move back down easily.
So, am I going to sit around and wait, as you say, fro the fundamentals of the RM to turn around ? I wouldn't,... especially when I see that there is no clear light at the end of the tunnel. I'll start taking actions now to move more of my funds out of country to hedge further, since I still have my natural income in Msia and my EPF is going to be stuck in Msia for sometime.
Perhaps we can always quote that in the current perspective, RM may not be good, then looking at long term, the RM will rebound. Again, I'll quote a personal experience here : I NEVER regretted taking the actions I took back in 2005/6 when I moved my funds out, even though the KLSE came back later, and the RM recovered later, relatively.
I lost money when I converted into the SGD right before they removed the peg back in 2005/6, but because I converted over to the SGD, my warchest was ready fro the downturn in 2008/9 in Singapore.
Everytime, the SGD strengthened against the RM throughout the last few years. Sure, there were dips, so I bought in more with the excess from my Active Income.
I never said I intend to stay-put in the USD. I will convert my USD in-hand into the SGD when the situation is in my favour ! And I never leave my SGD funds idle in the bank. I buy REITs, SG sticks, and HY Bonds denominated in different currencies.
But I guessed each is to his own,... if you believe that the RM and the KLSE will recover later on AFTER the fundamentals have changed, but that is if it can change,... then you can wait fro that time to come. As far as I'm comcerned, I have enough imbedded in Msia, I need to go out.
Without sufficient oil revenue and with PETRONAS starting to dig into her coffers, I really wondered how much can we improve (or change for the better) this time ? How long will it take ? If I am to regret sending my money out and then seeing the RM strengthens against all currencies, hence, making me suffer losses having foreign currencies in-hand,... I REALLY DON"T THINK it will be this time round.
Oct 1 2015, 08:33 AM

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