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 USD/MYR drop, V2

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Ramjade
post Oct 1 2015, 07:32 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Oct 1 2015, 07:28 PM)
this one, some of these franchisees will just give up, close down.

then, cheaper kopi "shops" will emerge.

rm10 a coffee becomes rm5, still can make a profit.

standard and gaya, no more la....
*
Trust me, people will still gaya. Old habits die hard. There's something magical call "credit card", "personal loan" and "installment"

On the other hand, it can open people's eye to the real situation.

This post has been edited by Ramjade: Oct 1 2015, 07:32 PM
Hansel
post Oct 1 2015, 07:35 PM

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QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Oct 1 2015, 06:44 PM)
Such as USD n SGD  brows.gif
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Yeah,... I really don't see any other way.

The PM announced in NY that the health of the budget will improve by the end of the decade. So ?

He's implying that this will give more confidence to foreign investors to come back to Msia, and then in turn prop up the RM so that we can have better purchasing power ? So lesser deficit is better for the man in the streets ?

There are so many factors involved to regain investors' confidence. The RM has dropped so much,... so,... in everything recovers, can get back to 1USD = 3.8 RM ?

Even if such a miracle can happen to the RM, do you think the sellers outside will lower back their prices to the time when the USD was = 3.8 RM ? After prices have gone up, do you think sellers will lower back down so easily ?
AVFAN
post Oct 1 2015, 07:44 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Oct 1 2015, 07:35 PM)
Even if such a miracle can happen to the RM, do you think the sellers outside will lower back their prices to the time when the USD was = 3.8 RM ? After prices have gone up, do you think sellers will lower back down so easily ?
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are you a fan of mcD, kfc or pizza hut?

for an answer, keep a close watch on their prices and serving size.

to me, these are are best gauges for managed inflation and gomen intentions for the rakyat - becos they are bn-crony tight.
anudora
post Oct 1 2015, 08:05 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Oct 1 2015, 06:42 PM)
surely.

some will hit bad with... fast food - burgers, buns, cheese, fries, pizza dough/flour - all imported ingredients.

students will be hit with price incr for books, stationery, calculators, shoes, uniforms - almost all imported.

old/sick folks will be hit with.. healthcare/medication - some will now turn to gomen hospitals 100%.

new parents will be hit for infant formula, diapers, cereals...

others.... pc's, tablets, car spare parts, house repairs...

nothing will escape, not even ikan bilis. maybe kangkung will stay cheap.

we don't really make or grow much here, do we?
*
When Christian Lagarde visit M'sia a few years ago, she was aware of the situation and was quick to point out that we are planting far too much CPO.
She stated that any anything happen, the price of fruits and vegetables will increase very much.
She suggested to plant more fruits and vegetables instead of CPO. Guess the advice had fallen on deaf ear.
I am impressed with her view. Although it was just a short visit, she seem to understand the situation well enough.

This post has been edited by anudora: Oct 1 2015, 08:06 PM
dreamer101
post Oct 1 2015, 08:26 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Oct 1 2015, 10:41 AM)
will definitely be interesting to see this 1% deficit budget 2016 on oct 23.
*
http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/malaysi...s-fund-managers


<< “We are committed to achieve a balanced budget by 2020 but I have to be frank with you that we may not achieve a fully balanced budget but may be a slight deficit in the region of negative 1% from the current deficit of 3.2%,” he was quoted as saying at a breakfast meeting attended by US fund managers and Malaysian businessmen.>>
- See more at: http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/malaysi...E.Vz3Q9Dwq.dpuf

AVFAN,

Read carefully. He is targeting budget deficit of 1% at 2020. That also means that it will be business as usual of 3.X% or more budget deficit from now until 2020.

Dreamer
!@#$%^
post Oct 1 2015, 08:32 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Oct 1 2015, 07:28 PM)
this one, some of these franchisees will just give up, close down.

then, cheaper kopi "shops" will emerge.

rm10 a coffee becomes rm5, still can make a profit.

standard and gaya, no more la....
*
it's all about whether you are willing to spend or not. most who go starbucks probably middle income and above. compare it to cigarettes, as expensive as they are, the lower income fellas spend a lot on them per month - and they dare to say they have no money. it's all about your priority
dreamer101
post Oct 1 2015, 08:33 PM

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QUOTE(Ramjade @ Oct 1 2015, 07:01 PM)
Good. Let's see how such people adjust. I bet with you they will have a hard time. Imagine drinking starbucks everyday and suddenly starbucks increase. Or go fancy restaurant every weekend, suddenly price increase. Let's see how well they adjust.
Good. This will "open" people's eyes. Fertilizer increase. Seeds increase. Wages stay the same. You know what I am talking about.  whistling.gif
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Ramjade,

You are in the same boat. You are 100% invested in ASx. So, you are not safe from RM drop either. You need to adjust too if RM drop further.

Dreamer


AVFAN
post Oct 1 2015, 08:40 PM

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QUOTE(dreamer101 @ Oct 1 2015, 08:26 PM)
http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/malaysi...s-fund-managers
<< “We are committed to achieve a balanced budget by 2020 but I have to be frank with you that we may not achieve a fully balanced budget but may be a slight deficit in the region of negative 1% from the current deficit of 3.2%,” he was quoted as saying at a breakfast meeting attended by US fund managers and Malaysian businessmen.>>
- See more at: http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/malaysi...E.Vz3Q9Dwq.dpuf

AVFAN,

Read carefully.  He is targeting budget deficit of 1% at 2020.  That also means that it will be business as usual of 3.X% or more budget deficit from now until 2020.

Dreamer
*
ya, the second report is worded differently from the initial one.

surely the deficit will remain or go higher. if not, how to keep the bloated civil service, big pm dept and br1m spending?

the only remaining question is.... how much will gst be increased - this one, all eyes will be watching.


QUOTE(alexanderclz @ Oct 1 2015, 08:32 PM)
it's all about whether you are willing to spend or not. most who go starbucks probably middle income and above. compare it to cigarettes, as expensive as they are, the lower income fellas spend a lot on them per month - and they dare to say they have no money. it's all about your priority
*
sure.

it's about elastic and inelastic demand.

diehards will still smoke or starbuck even at rm50 a go. biggrin.gif

question is will there be enough of them to keep all the joints open or some will have to close.

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Oct 1 2015, 08:41 PM
dreamer101
post Oct 1 2015, 08:44 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Oct 1 2015, 08:40 PM)
ya, the second report is worded differently from the initial one.

surely the deficit will remain or go higher. if not, how to keep the bloated civil service, big pm dept and br1m spending?

the only remaining question is.... how much will gst be increased - this one, all eyes will be watching.
sure.

it's about elastic and inelastic demand.

diehards will still smoke or starbuck even at rm50 a go. biggrin.gif

question is will there be enough of them to keep all the joints open or some will have to close.
*
AVFAN,

I believe it will be a combination of "Fuel Tax" and GST...

Dreamer
nexona88
post Oct 1 2015, 08:54 PM

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QUOTE(alexanderclz @ Oct 1 2015, 08:32 PM)
it's all about whether you are willing to spend or not. most who go starbucks probably middle income and above. compare it to cigarettes, as expensive as they are, the lower income fellas spend a lot on them per month - and they dare to say they have no money. it's all about your priority
*
so it's biz as usual even with price hike sweat.gif icon_idea.gif
Hansel
post Oct 1 2015, 09:33 PM

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QUOTE(nexona88 @ Oct 1 2015, 08:54 PM)
so it's biz as usual even with price hike  sweat.gif  icon_idea.gif
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No it won't, when the day comes that there is the rent or the housing instalment needs to be paid, the condo maintenance and sinking fund need to be paid, the car loan needs to be paid, the childrens' school fees and school books need to be paid, food need to be put on the table, then they will find that all the above expenses have eaten up almost all their monthly income, leaving very, very little disposable income for Starbucks and cigarettes.

That's when more corruption takes place, crimes happen,... and when things become even worse, riots will take place, by some quarters claiming that society has not been fair to them.
Ramjade
post Oct 1 2015, 09:34 PM

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QUOTE(dreamer101 @ Oct 1 2015, 08:33 PM)
Ramjade,

You are in the same boat.  You are 100% invested in ASx.  So, you are not safe from RM drop either.  You need to adjust too if RM drop further.

Dreamer
*
Yes. Unlike them, I have been living this kind of life for a long time. You have no idea how cheap-skate I can be. I can adjust. Why drive when one can cycle/walk/take public transport? Drive using proper technique. Why bother eating at fancy restaurant? After all is just for self gratification. And as I already shared with Hansel my opinions on ASX. Like I said before, careful planning and spending will be able to help. Unless malaysia's money become banana money then yes we need to worry. Even then, our ancestors survive in the jungle just fine (planting their own crops, rearing own chickens) during the Japanese occupation. There were no purchasing power back then only about whether one can survive to see the next day or not. You may be anti ASX. But ASX for me is just FD with higher interest. I won't move money into something I do not know yet. It will be suicide. If I move into something I don't know, I might lose 100% of say the 50% of what I moved compare to a decrease in purchasing power of say ~10%. YOu tell me which is better. Losing 50% of what you have or just 10% of purchasing power?

And like I said, price of vege increases? Easy, plant your own vege. It won't be enough but it will help. And there's always tesco which offer reduce to clear vege (at RM0.50) They are still in good condition. Just cut off the bad part and you are good to go. Price of meat increases, there's always tesco which offers chicken at reasonable price. Rice increase? Simple. I don't eat rice. In fact, I have never eaten rice nor any form of carbohydrates for a long time already. High electricity bills? Expensove internet? Just go starbucks and use their internet. Maybe first time order something ask them for password. Subsequent visit, do not need to order anything. Be thick face! Never turn down something that's free!Easy, use the electronic items from the country with low watt. Charged your phone/tablets at office. Save yourself few bucks. That's what my friends and I are going to do. Who needs Astro, Cinema when one have the internet & good books? Who ask one to go on vacation in Europe every year? Go cinema every week, dine out every week? Buy the latest iPhone and iPad every year? Live within one means! The coming years will see frugallity at its best. What I have learn while not in Malaysia will be implemented once I am back in Malaysia.

Not forgetting, despite increase in exchange rates, sometimes it is still cheaper to shop from overseas after counting in the shipping charges than getting from local store. If one knows the way to buy from overseas, it is tax free. smile.gif No 6% GST there. I am talking about food items.

So electricity, food, entertainment, internet , transport is covered. I don't drink, smoke, party, karaoking or go to pub, or do birthday celebrations or dine in fancy hotel and places. You tell me what more will affect me? The most thing which might affect me in the future is petrol, groceries and maybe rental.
Ramjade
post Oct 1 2015, 09:37 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Oct 1 2015, 09:33 PM)
No it won't, when the day comes that there is the rent or the housing instalment needs to be paid, the condo maintenance and sinking fund need to be paid, the car loan needs to be paid, the childrens' school fees and school books need to be paid, food need to be put on the table, then they will find that all the above expenses have eaten up almost all their monthly income, leaving very, very little disposable income for Starbucks and cigarettes.

That's when more corruption takes place, crimes happen,... and when things become even worse, riots will take place, by some quarters claiming that society has not been fair to them.
*
That's why we need to be frugal and diversify out. But for that, we need knowledge. You can't simply say I want to move my money in xxx country without reading up about that particular country.

That time people will "wake up"
nexona88
post Oct 1 2015, 09:45 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Oct 1 2015, 09:33 PM)
No it won't, when the day comes that there is the rent or the housing instalment needs to be paid, the condo maintenance and sinking fund need to be paid, the car loan needs to be paid, the childrens' school fees and school books need to be paid, food need to be put on the table, then they will find that all the above expenses have eaten up almost all their monthly income, leaving very, very little disposable income for Starbucks and cigarettes.

That's when more corruption takes place, crimes happen,... and when things become even worse, riots will take place, by some quarters claiming that society has not been fair to them.
*
well that currently happening now whistling.gif
nexona88
post Oct 1 2015, 09:49 PM

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QUOTE(Ramjade @ Oct 1 2015, 09:34 PM)
Yes. Unlike them, I have been living this kind of life for a long time. You have no idea how cheap-skate I can be. I can adjust. Why drive when one can cycle/walk/take public transport? Drive using proper technique. Why bother eating at fancy restaurant? After all is just for self gratification. And as I already shared with Hansel my opinions on ASX. Like I said before, careful planning and spending will be able to help. Unless malaysia's money become banana money then yes we need to worry. Even then, our ancestors survive in the jungle just fine (planting their own crops, rearing own chickens) during the Japanese occupation. There were no purchasing power back then only about whether one can survive to see the next day or not. You may be anti ASX. But ASX for me is just FD with higher interest. I won't move money into something I do not know yet. It will be suicide. If I move into something I don't know, I might lose 100% of say the 50% of what I moved compare to a decrease in purchasing power of say ~10%. YOu tell me which is better. Losing 50% of what you have or just 10% of purchasing power?

And like I said, price of vege increases? Easy, plant your own vege. It won't be enough but it will help. And there's always tesco which offer reduce to clear vege (at RM0.50) They are still in good condition. Just cut off the bad part and you are good to go. Price of meat increases, there's always tesco which offers chicken at reasonable price. Rice increase? Simple. I don't eat rice. In fact, I have never eaten rice nor any form of carbohydrates for a long time already. High electricity bills? Expensove internet? Just go starbucks and use their internet. Maybe first time order something ask them for password. Subsequent visit, do not need to order anything. Be thick face! Never turn down something that's free!Easy, use the electronic items from the country with low watt. Charged your phone/tablets at office. Save yourself few bucks. That's what my friends and I are going to do. Who needs Astro, Cinema when one have the internet & good books? Who ask one to go on vacation in Europe every year? Go cinema every week, dine out every week? Buy the latest iPhone and iPad every year? Live within one means! The coming years will see frugallity at its best. What I have learn while not in Malaysia will be implemented once I am back in Malaysia.

Not forgetting, despite increase in exchange rates, sometimes it is still cheaper to shop from overseas after counting in the shipping charges than getting from local store. If one knows the way to buy from overseas, it is tax free. smile.gif No 6% GST there. I am talking about food items.

So electricity, food, entertainment, internet , transport is covered. I don't drink, smoke, party, karaoking or go to pub, or do birthday celebrations or dine in fancy hotel and places. You tell me what more will affect me? The most thing which might affect me in the future is petrol, groceries and maybe rental.
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you're the man rclxms.gif my role model my inspiration rclxms.gif flex.gif
dreamer101
post Oct 1 2015, 09:52 PM

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QUOTE(Ramjade @ Oct 1 2015, 09:34 PM)
» Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... «
You may be anti ASX. But ASX for me is just FD with higher interest. I won't move money into something I do not know yet. It will be suicide.
» Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... «

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Ramjade,

<<But ASX for me is just FD with higher interest. >>

LOL!! It is OBVIOUS that you DO NOT KNOW ASx. So, WHY do you invest on something you DO NOT KNOW??

<<I won't move money into something I do not know yet. It will be suicide.>>

Why do you invest on ASx that you DO NOT KNOW??

Dreamer




TSwil-i-am
post Oct 1 2015, 10:02 PM

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QUOTE(Ramjade @ Oct 1 2015, 09:34 PM)
So electricity, food, entertainment, internet , transport is covered. I don't drink, smoke, party, karaoking or go to pub, or do birthday celebrations or dine in fancy hotel and places. You tell me what more will affect me? The most thing which might affect me in the future is petrol, groceries and maybe rental.
*
Y worry so much since YOLO
Hansel
post Oct 1 2015, 10:02 PM

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QUOTE(Ramjade @ Oct 1 2015, 09:37 PM)
That's why we need to be frugal and diversify out. But for that, we need knowledge. You can't simply say I want to move my money in xxx country without reading up about that particular country.

That time people will "wake up"
*
OKay,... you need to speed-up your knowledge-gaining activities. Only after you are confident, you will take out a certain portion of your ASX funds to be put somewhere else for diversification. Don't take too long,... other events may take place that will clamp down on your plans.
Ramjade
post Oct 1 2015, 10:06 PM

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QUOTE(dreamer101 @ Oct 1 2015, 09:52 PM)
Ramjade,

<<But ASX for me is just FD with higher interest. >>

LOL!! It is OBVIOUS that you DO NOT KNOW ASx.  So, WHY do you invest on something you DO NOT KNOW??

<<I won't move money into something I do not know yet. It will be suicide.>>

Why do you invest on ASx that you DO NOT KNOW??

Dreamer
*
Yes I do not know ASX well when I started. But do you think those uncle and aunties know? They don't. As long as ASX can pay 6.x%/year, they will have subscriber. Cause people want stable returns yearly. And I am one of them. Stable yearly moderately high returns, no need for monitoring.

Tell me what's so hard about ASX FP
? You bring the money and they print the book and you go home. There's no monitoring involve. After a year, you go update the book. Heck do you think that those uncle and aunties not on LYN knows about the recent concern? Again, they DON'T. With PNB saying ASX = national interest, do you think they want to change that? They DON'T. Why? By changing that, they will lose one big cookie jar. At times like this, they need the cookie jar the most.

You have your views on ASX, I have mine.

Ramjade
post Oct 1 2015, 10:07 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Oct 1 2015, 10:02 PM)
OKay,... you need to speed-up your knowledge-gaining activities. Only after you are confident, you will take out a certain portion of your ASX funds to be put somewhere else for diversification. Don't take too long,... other events may take place that will clamp down on your plans.
*
Chill Hansel. 5 years by my calculations. 10 if you are over optimistic.

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