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> Multiple Signs of Malaysia Property Bubble V19

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TSicemanfx
post Aug 15 2015, 03:37 AM, updated 9y ago

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https://forum.lowyat.net/topic/3572930/+1540

TSicemanfx
post Aug 15 2015, 03:45 AM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Aug 14 2015, 07:18 PM)
Why would they liquidate ?

Your big assumption is they have no more cash. That is a very big assumption
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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Aug 14 2015, 07:35 PM)
Not everyone has cash. For that matter, not everyone has more than RM40k cash too

You got to be those top few %. Otherwise, you are just an ordinary man. Those Mr A, Mr B and Mr C walking on the street

Work hard. Work smart and climb the corporate ladder. Seize every opportunity you find. Then you will be those top few %
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Guess you forgot to take medicine for split personality.

QUOTE(Battlefield1942 @ Aug 14 2015, 07:43 PM)
Coming back to the main topic of property price in KV. Why with all those sophisticated knowledge they have on the financial world. Our Bank Negara and finance ministry still can't handle it better then now causing this slide? Compared to SGD, it look like they did a better job.
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Syok sendiri?

QUOTE(Jliew168 @ Aug 14 2015, 07:49 PM)
When u have a good navigation skill you won't scare of storm  tongue.gif
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Guess you never encounter the situation where the wave is higher than the boat. Under this situation, good navigation skill won't help.

QUOTE(jolokia @ Aug 14 2015, 09:17 PM)
Teach him also pointless, Flexi loans, refinancing, is all navigation skill during storm.

Some more wanna reply in insult language.

Why waste time teaching him?  No money No guts No knowledge.

Teach Ah Bear better at least he willing to learn.
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Only those cash strap need refinancing in time of crisis.

The world is greater than the kampung, you have no idea how big is the outside world.


This post has been edited by icemanfx: Aug 15 2015, 04:12 AM
TSicemanfx
post Aug 15 2015, 03:50 AM

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QUOTE(Kindo0211 @ Aug 14 2015, 10:33 PM)
Would like to ask, as a property agents, is that will affect the number of investor to do investment on USA properties which under valued, currently I plan to join a property company, they are selling oversea properties only and claimed that currently USA properties is very cheap, if those investors who sign the investment contract, the third years the buyer can end the contract and resell his contract to this property company with 133% return. And the buyer also will get annual interest rewards of 7% of his total investment on 1st, 2nd and 3rd years. I am afraid that if I join this company, but no sales generated then is pointless for me to resign my current job (but I fed up on current job). Anyone got suggestions?
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Property in the u.s is no longer under value. This business model sound like a ponzi scheme.

TSicemanfx
post Aug 15 2015, 03:58 AM

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To those who are already bought kV property, drop in myr Forex rate shouldn't impact them as bank interest rate remain unchanged, loan repayment is in myr, Spm school leavers are still flocking to kV, divorcee still need 2nd property to stay, GDP growth still positive, inflation rate still low, vss or mss still few and far in between, etc. Don't see the need of panic.

TSicemanfx
post Aug 15 2015, 09:50 AM

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QUOTE(Kindo0211 @ Aug 15 2015, 07:33 AM)
Yah, the interviewer told me the same thing, they said all the contract is supported by government US. So the buyer will sign that property agreement provided by the lawyer from US.
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Supported by u.s government? At which level? Federal, state or county? U.s gomen don't get involve in this type of deal.

QUOTE(Kindo0211 @ Aug 15 2015, 07:28 AM)
From what they told me, currently they holding a project from Cape Coral from City of Florida. Many ppl sell the land when economic crisis came, then the company hold all the properties on hands looking for investors.
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Hedge funds like Blackstone had been buying foreclosure properties in the u.s if such deal exist, hedge funds and local investors would have secured it before this company that need foreign funding. Further, foreclosure deal is cash transaction, if this company already hold these properties, why they need to share their profit with people over 12,000 km away? Given current housing market in the u.s, they could refinance easily with much cheaper interest rate.

This post has been edited by icemanfx: Aug 15 2015, 10:03 AM
TSicemanfx
post Aug 15 2015, 11:48 AM

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QUOTE(mthc @ Aug 15 2015, 11:35 AM)
Lol! I couldn't agree more that this does sound like a ponzi scheme. Especially those UK's green land scheme like Jardin International.

What happened to u Aiskirim man. You are a changed man.
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Nope, still the same student, part time ice cream stall assistant.

TSicemanfx
post Aug 15 2015, 12:10 PM

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QUOTE(diversity @ Aug 15 2015, 12:05 PM)
Can buy now? ):
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Buy what?
TSicemanfx
post Aug 15 2015, 02:02 PM

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QUOTE(diversity @ Aug 15 2015, 01:06 PM)
300k+ sub sale condo, actually buy for both investment / self stay la. The reason why I don't wanna straight away move in is because the current place I'm renting is super cheap and worth it. That's why wanna rent it out to people first, if my landlord decide to sell then I'll move in. But I understand now got oversupply in Cyber lo.
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If you understand there is oversupply in cyberjay mean your unit could be vacant for extended period or rent is depressed.


TSicemanfx
post Aug 15 2015, 10:42 PM

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QUOTE(Kindo0211 @ Aug 15 2015, 08:01 PM)
This I really not able to answer you since I not professional in this field. But I found the corporate website, kindly have a look and give me more comments.

Their office located in Pavilion Office Suite level 9.

Link---------->. http://qualitasproperty.com

Thanks
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A small re agent in country side in Cumbria selling u.s property in Malaysia? It is a bit far stretch to take it seriously.

This post has been edited by icemanfx: Aug 15 2015, 10:56 PM
TSicemanfx
post Aug 17 2015, 11:58 AM

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QUOTE(kevyeoh @ Aug 17 2015, 11:37 AM)
actually i am wondering, if really there is a crash, will the DDD buy? because when it is crashing or already crash, then there is always the tendency to wait for it to crash further or maybe worry it is already crashing, why buy?

that is why the best advice if wanna buy property for own stay....anytime is a good time to buy as long as you find a suitable place and within your means/budget...
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Property is illiquid, price will take years to bottom.

Market always crash earlier than expected. Is current sentiment on myr forex rate and klci, a flipping point for kv property price trend?

TSicemanfx
post Aug 17 2015, 11:26 PM

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QUOTE(jolokia @ Aug 17 2015, 01:31 PM)
Our previous advice to DDD is stock market, commodities  & currency will crash first before property, if all this crash how would DDD have money or guts to buy ?

There are all Dreamer who can't afford & merely find excuses to cover their failure in live.

Like i can't afford a BMW then i said once TPPA signed sure BMW price would crash or cannot afford a Rolex watch then said wait for Swiss franc to crash...lol

If economy really crash these DDD is the first one to suffered coz no asset to sell.. all kosong...
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After KLSE, commodities, MYR price dropped, kv property will defy gravity to double price in 3 years.

QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Aug 17 2015, 10:12 PM)
If war zone, RM50k KLCC also can get  tongue.gif

No harm day dreaming like the DDD. It will make me feel better there is hope something good is happening. If can get RM500k 1600sf next to KLCC, that would be good man  thumbup.gif
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In US$, kv property price has dropped by over 20% and counting. Foreigners must be very happy to buy.

This post has been edited by icemanfx: Aug 18 2015, 01:05 AM
TSicemanfx
post Aug 17 2015, 11:41 PM

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https://forum.lowyat.net/topic/3577720/+120

QUOTE(IReallyNeed Answers @ Aug 17 2015, 05:58 PM)
I don't think subsale are dropping prices, it's encountering a slow down as always, but price dropped is far from it( assuming your prices drop= below market price)

A lot of subsale property will over evaluate their value to give them more room to nego, as such, a subsale unit in Cheras would valued at 850k, the owner is not gonna set the price as 850k, he'll probably put it at 1mil, or 9XXk haha!

Then seeing the market is slow and not much ppl enquire, or the unit have been left there too long, he would probably just lower it abit to 900k

Which in actual fact, still higher than market rate, but effectively portraying that the price of property has fallen!

Malaysian enconomy is not out of hand yet, and we're know to be resilient! Lotsa ppl just scare and wanna turn a profit"before it's too late"
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Property price is not transparent like commodity or stock, asking price is set by vendor at his whim and fancy. In reality, there are many subsale transacted at below valued price. A reason why reputable valuers are currently value property 10% lower than reported transacted price.

QUOTE(jolokia @ Aug 17 2015, 07:52 PM)
? Too late ??

Our economy has always been 9 years boom 1 year doom or 8 years boom 2 year doom, all the owner need is hold for 1-2 years then can whack even higher price.

As long as we don't see massive retrenchment & massive business closing down including big corporate goes bankrupt, then hard luck to wait for properties price crash, as long as people have job & business they would not let go their properties easily.

When that day do come we'll see Spain/Greece style economy where 1 out of every 3 people has no job, even Bank need to limit daily withdrawal, people line up for soup kitchen & etc... by then how many of you all dare to whack those dead chicken properties?
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If economy is as predictable, there should be more than 10% people have over US$100k net worth.

This post has been edited by icemanfx: Aug 18 2015, 01:40 AM
TSicemanfx
post Aug 18 2015, 01:32 AM

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QUOTE(Pistacio @ Aug 18 2015, 12:18 AM)
It depends good areas definitely would not go down in price.
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Where considered are good areas?

QUOTE(IReallyNeed Answers @ Aug 18 2015, 12:21 AM)
Isn't that my context?

I'm just summarizing and generalizing that some quarter are willing to let go for a small discount that's still above market rate, because they might be to scare if the "too late" scenario happened!

Probably will not happened here for the fore seeable future if you asks me!
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On upward trend, it make economical sense to hold for higher price. However, on down trend, value diminish with time. The question is whether current trend is up, down or stagnant? If vendor has the capability to hold through bad patch, s/he shouldn't be thinking of selling during price down trend/stagnant. Also mean, during price down trend/stagnant, buyer could slash asking price significantly.

This post has been edited by icemanfx: Aug 18 2015, 01:41 AM
TSicemanfx
post Aug 18 2015, 11:47 AM

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QUOTE(IReallyNeed Answers @ Aug 17 2015, 05:58 PM)
I don't think subsale are dropping prices, it's encountering a slow down as always, but price dropped is far from it( assuming your prices drop= below market price)

A lot of subsale property will over evaluate their value to give them more room to nego, as such, a subsale unit in Cheras would valued at 850k, the owner is not gonna set the price as 850k, he'll probably put it at 1mil, or 9XXk haha!

Then seeing the market is slow and not much ppl enquire, or the unit have been left there too long, he would probably just lower it abit to 900k

Which in actual fact, still higher than market rate, but effectively portraying that the price of property has fallen!

Malaysian enconomy is not out of hand yet, and we're know to be resilient! Lotsa ppl just scare and wanna turn a profit"before it's too late"
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Provided buyer is ignorance of transacted price.

QUOTE(jolokia @ Aug 18 2015, 08:42 AM)
Valuer work on behalf of bank surely they been instruct to put a lower value so that bank can secure them self, but that doesn't mean property owner can whack whatver price they like...  whistling.gif

100K USD ah ... Sap Sap Shui lah/...  don't compare your beggar 10K FD lah ! if i have that i malu to show already.. kekeke  tongue.gif
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During price uptrend, it was common for vendor to shout asking price at their whim and fancy as quoted above.

Believe less than 10% of bank customers are qualified for privilege, priority banking. Your sap sap shui is again syok sendiri.

TSicemanfx
post Aug 18 2015, 04:08 PM

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QUOTE(jolokia @ Aug 18 2015, 12:56 PM)
Trend has always been up either UUU or uuu  rclxm9.gif

You don't have priority banking meh ?  brows.gif

Oh forgot you Platinum Card also not qualified..  Don't be sad work harder earn more..  smile.gif
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If student and ice cream stall assistant could have platinum card or priority banking, what is the value or point to have this exclusivity?

QUOTE(markpsp @ Aug 18 2015, 09:22 AM)
Be prepared for even lower Ringgit devaluation in September on the possibility of US interest rate hike news. The only way to preserve the value of Ringgit is for BNM to hike interest rates. BNM has less than 100 billion USD left in foreign reserves. No way they wanna spend all their bullets.

Refer to http://www.theedgemarkets.com/en/article/b...k-us967-billion

My economist friend in Khazanah already confirms that property prices are going downwards the next few years. The incoming recession this round might be worst than 1997 as it will probably last almost a decade.

With the increasing possibility of lower employment rates and business sentiment, many people are cutting down on unnecessary expenditure and companies are lowering their forecast. Commodity prices are trending downwards and will likely stay low for the moment whereas our country's debt remain high. 1MDB alone generates 5 million in interest rates a day. Not sure if our country can continue to service the federal debt in the long term if business is bad. Foreign outflow just contributes more to the "morale" and worsening business sentiment. Hopefully Bank Negara will do something soon.

Good luck have fun guys.
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May be 1mdb will sell a parcel of land every few days to pay for interest. UUU, BBB!


This post has been edited by icemanfx: Aug 18 2015, 04:21 PM
TSicemanfx
post Aug 18 2015, 05:26 PM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Aug 18 2015, 09:43 AM)
My sifu,

Hot money from KLCI came from USA QE. When QE started, KLCI was around 1000 point. And it drove up the KLCI to 1800 over a few years

Now hot money is leaving by dumping equity. So, the bottomline should be 1000 point. Give it some inflation and margin of error 20%, say 1200 point.

So, 1200 is the target and in the meantime, let's short kaw kaw with confidence !  thumbup.gif
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KV property is immune to hot money withdrawal, price is continue on uptrend.

zukoi407, tigerr must be making $$$ from O&G stocks.


This post has been edited by icemanfx: Aug 18 2015, 07:13 PM
TSicemanfx
post Aug 19 2015, 12:23 AM

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http://www.brickz.my/transactions/resident...ed/view/charts/

http://www.brickz.my/transactions/resident...ed/view/charts/

http://www.brickz.my/transactions/resident...ed/view/charts/

http://www.brickz.my/transactions/resident...ed/view/charts/


From the above sampling, it seem subsale price has been stagnant since 2014 or even dropped marginally.

This post has been edited by icemanfx: Aug 19 2015, 12:38 AM
TSicemanfx
post Aug 19 2015, 11:34 AM

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QUOTE(Battlefield1942 @ Aug 19 2015, 11:00 AM)
Singapore and Hong Kong is always a good due to it location. My friends who move to Singapore to study with his family sold his house back home and bought one during the 2000 when it just came out from 1997 crisis. He making $$$ when he move back home 10 years later - all his investment help paid for his son study there. In 1988 after tunku pass away. Me and my friends quickly went over to visit tunku house to be a agent as his son is selling it off - asking price 1 million (1988 value - which we think was too high) but it now worth 300% it original price. Kedah Merbok too had gone up. It look like a resort place with scenic view and a river by it side. Good place for retirement. Lucky those who teaching in a nearby teacher college who bought and stay there. Sure, all capital in the world the price will always be expensive even in trouble state like in Teheran, iran.
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At 4.5% compounded, after 27 (2015-1988) years is 328%

TSicemanfx
post Aug 19 2015, 11:57 AM

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How depreciating MYR impact KV property price?

- Some claimed, building materials cost has increased by 15%, property price to increase by 15% or more.
- KV property price is cheaper in US$, more foreigner to buy.
- Inflation rate going up, property price to rise in tandem.
- BNM to increase bank interest rate to reduce the outflow of cash, higher holding cost mean higher property price.
- Too expensive to buy overseas property, invest all locally.


This post has been edited by icemanfx: Aug 19 2015, 12:01 PM
TSicemanfx
post Aug 19 2015, 01:46 PM

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QUOTE(jolokia @ Aug 19 2015, 01:24 PM)
Icyboy ! Why so fruss ? You time will come ! Only things is when it come eventually!  You regret you ever wish for it.

Cheap price but no income to support you to buy.. kekeke
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Overheard a conversation at my stall just now;

First uncle claimed; his tenant voluntarily asked him to increase the rental before the tenancy agreement is up, and the uncle happily agreed.

Second uncle said; re agent called to increase the offer price by 5k to 10k every other week for his condo. He is now waiting for the offer price to exceed and above 15% of US$ value from a year ago before he let go as he doesn't want to compromise his wife shopping in New York.


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